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The Belmont Stakes will cap off this year's Triple Crown, which will go down as one of the most controversial and eventually disappointing three races in a long time. But there is still money to be made, so here are five ways to approach the race. My horse-by-horse analysis is here. My premium plays are available at pregame.com. Historically the Belmont is where we do our best work in the Triple Crown. It is the longest of the Triple Crown races, and it takes a good combination of stamina and speed. Most of these horses will never run this far again.
1) Hard to get around the favorites
Tacitus, one of our Derby horses, will be the favorite after finishing fourth in that race on a track he hated. He has classic distance breeding, a good running style for the distance and has all the qualities you look for in a Belmont winner. He is also 9-5. War of Will, who dominated the Preakness and is very tough at his best, is 2-1. Both horses should be significant factors. That makes it more difficult to put together a decent score. However, when faced with this scenario, you look for long shots in the trifectas, and that is how we will approach the race.
2) About those long shots...
There are three that are intriguing. Master Fencer was seventh in the Derby, but the Japanese horse was beaten just four lengths and was finishing very strongly. His style should suit Belmont, and Japanese horses tend to run well everywhere. He was not elite in Japan, but let's face it, this field isn't either. He could surprise at a big price. We were all-in on Bourbon War in the Preakness and he took us all out by finishing eighth. He really had no excuse that day other than maybe the long layoff got to him. We will give him one more chance to reward our faith. Sir Winston already has a nice effort over the surface and always seems to show up at a big price.
3) The next tier
Everfast was second in the Preakness, but that effort came out of nowhere and horses that don't run in the Derby, then run well in the Preakness tend to falter in the Belmont. Intrepid Heart is a regally bred, lightly raced colt who could improve. Joevia should be the pace setter, and that is a big advantage in longer races, because he will likely get the lead all to himself and could last a long time. All of these could be bottom factors in the trifectas.
4) So how do we play it?
I like exacta and trifecta boxes with the two favorites plus Master Fencer and Bourbon War. I also like the idea of keying the two favorites on top and in second with the long shots we like and as many horses as possible in third.
I also like the idea of playing the two long shots - Bourbon War and Master Fencer, across the board.
On the undercard, I like some long shots to throw in your wagers:
Race 8: No. 8 Hog Creek Hustle
Race 9: No. 5 Tale of Silence
Race 10: No 4 Qurban.
5) Keep an eye on the surface
As of today, they are expecting nice weather at Belmont so everything is handicapped for a fast track. Should that prove wrong, check back on Twitter as I will likely change some plays. Good luck and let's finish this year strong.
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The Astros are making noise again — not by bludgeoning teams with a powerhouse offense, but by grinding through games and getting elite production from a patched-together pitching staff. It’s a testament to their depth and resilience that they went 4-2 on a tough road trip while averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Even more impressive? The staff allowed just 2.3 runs per game during that stretch.
It’s fair to be impressed. This is a team still missing key pieces and leaning heavily on unproven arms, yet they’ve built a 2.5-game lead over Seattle in the AL West. If the rotation keeps performing like this, that cushion might not just hold through the All-Star break — it could grow.
Houston's pitching has been the great stabilizer. The Astros rank 1st in strikeouts, 9th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and 2nd in batting average against. The numbers aren’t carried solely by the stars either. Youngsters like Brandon Walter and Colton Gordon have stepped in admirably. Walter has allowed just two runs combined across his first two starts (6 IP and 5 IP), while Gordon has quietly gone five innings in three straight outings, giving up 1, 4, and 3 runs. Ryan Gusto has been inconsistent — failing to get through five innings in his last three starts — but has kept the damage manageable (3, 2, and 2 runs in those outings).
Meanwhile, the top of the rotation has been lights out. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have become one of the most dominant 1-2 punches in baseball, and Lance McCullers Jr. is starting to look like a real contributor again. It’s a staff carrying the team while the bats slowly try to catch up.
That offense, while mediocre overall — 15th in OPS, 20th in runs, 19th in homers, and 18th in slugging — has shown signs of life in recent days. Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have provided much-needed sparks. Peña is hitting .370 over the past week with an .851 OPS, while Meyers has been even hotter, posting a .381 average and .934 OPS.
The biggest news off the field this week was the potential end of the Forrest Whitley era. The former first-round pick was designated for assignment, a move that answers an early-season question: Who’s more likely to contribute this year — Whitley or McCullers? The answer is now clear.
Whitley’s DFA also serves as a reminder that not even elite GMs like Jeff Luhnow are immune to draft misses.
The Astros' last four first-round picks of the Jeff Luhnow era show how much of a crapshoot drafting can be.
2016: Forrest Whitley
2017: J.B. Bukauskus
2018: Seth Beer
2019: Korey Lee
Bukauskus and Beer did help land Zack Greinke, which certainly can be justified.
— Greg Rajan (@GregRajan) June 8, 2025
As the Houston Chronicle's Greg Rajan points out, Luhnow’s final four first-round picks with Houston all fell short: Whitley (2016), J.B. Bukauskas (2017), Seth Beer (2018), and Korey Lee (2019) have yet to become meaningful pieces for any club. The draft remains a gamble — even for the best.
Still, the Astros are finding answers. Despite an offense that’s still searching for consistency, their pitching — both from the top and the bottom of the depth chart — has been dominant. If that continues, this club won't just hold the lead. They’ll have momentum heading into July.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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