THE PALLILOG
How these exciting developments could reshape Astros’ trade deadline
Jul 24, 2025, 11:31 am
Should Brice Matthews be untradable now? Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images.
The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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