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The Belmont Stakes will cap off this year's Triple Crown, which will go down as one of the most controversial and eventually disappointing three races in a long time. But there is still money to be made, so here are five ways to approach the race. My horse-by-horse analysis is here. My premium plays are available at pregame.com. Historically the Belmont is where we do our best work in the Triple Crown. It is the longest of the Triple Crown races, and it takes a good combination of stamina and speed. Most of these horses will never run this far again.
1) Hard to get around the favorites
Tacitus, one of our Derby horses, will be the favorite after finishing fourth in that race on a track he hated. He has classic distance breeding, a good running style for the distance and has all the qualities you look for in a Belmont winner. He is also 9-5. War of Will, who dominated the Preakness and is very tough at his best, is 2-1. Both horses should be significant factors. That makes it more difficult to put together a decent score. However, when faced with this scenario, you look for long shots in the trifectas, and that is how we will approach the race.
2) About those long shots...
There are three that are intriguing. Master Fencer was seventh in the Derby, but the Japanese horse was beaten just four lengths and was finishing very strongly. His style should suit Belmont, and Japanese horses tend to run well everywhere. He was not elite in Japan, but let's face it, this field isn't either. He could surprise at a big price. We were all-in on Bourbon War in the Preakness and he took us all out by finishing eighth. He really had no excuse that day other than maybe the long layoff got to him. We will give him one more chance to reward our faith. Sir Winston already has a nice effort over the surface and always seems to show up at a big price.
3) The next tier
Everfast was second in the Preakness, but that effort came out of nowhere and horses that don't run in the Derby, then run well in the Preakness tend to falter in the Belmont. Intrepid Heart is a regally bred, lightly raced colt who could improve. Joevia should be the pace setter, and that is a big advantage in longer races, because he will likely get the lead all to himself and could last a long time. All of these could be bottom factors in the trifectas.
4) So how do we play it?
I like exacta and trifecta boxes with the two favorites plus Master Fencer and Bourbon War. I also like the idea of keying the two favorites on top and in second with the long shots we like and as many horses as possible in third.
I also like the idea of playing the two long shots - Bourbon War and Master Fencer, across the board.
On the undercard, I like some long shots to throw in your wagers:
Race 8: No. 8 Hog Creek Hustle
Race 9: No. 5 Tale of Silence
Race 10: No 4 Qurban.
5) Keep an eye on the surface
As of today, they are expecting nice weather at Belmont so everything is handicapped for a fast track. Should that prove wrong, check back on Twitter as I will likely change some plays. Good luck and let's finish this year strong.
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Hunter Brown struck out seven in six scoreless innings and Chas McCormick drove in two runs as the Houston Astros used a big first inning to beat the Colorado Rockies 5-2 on Tuesday night.
Chas makes it 5-0! pic.twitter.com/HKSDshSpbu
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 26, 2024
Brown (5-5) allowed two hits to win his fourth straight start and help the Astros tie a season-high with their sixth consecutive win.
Pumping Diesel tonight. #Relentless pic.twitter.com/Iq9UjamX9w
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 26, 2024
Jake Meyers tied a season high with three hits and Jose Altuve had two hits and an RBI as the Astros moved within a game of .500 at 39-40.
Michael Toglia hit a solo home run for Colorado with one out in the ninth and pinch-hitter Jacob Stallings walked with two outs. But Josh Hader struck out Brenton Doyle to end it.
It was the fourth loss in five games for the Rockies and their 10th consecutive loss at Minute Maid Park dating to Aug. 15, 2018.
The Astros jumped on starter Austin Gomber (1-5) for five runs in the first inning after scoring four runs in the opening frame of an 8-1 win over the Orioles on Sunday.
Altuve hit a leadoff single and stole second base before scoring on a single by Alex Bregman. Yainer Diaz and Jake Meyers drove in runs before McCormick smacked a line drive to center field to score two more.
Gomber settled down after the tough first inning, allowing only one single over the next four innings. He allowed eight hits and struck out four in 5 1/3 innings for his fourth straight loss. He was lifted after a double by Meyers with one out in the sixth.
The Rockies didn’t get a hit until Ezequiel Tovar singled to start the fourth inning, but he was erased when Ryan McMahon grounded into a forceout. Brendan Rodgers singled after that before Brown retired the next two batters to end the inning.
Seth Martinez hit Doyle with a pitch to start the eighth and McMahon singled with one out to send him to third. Rodgers singled to right field to score Doyle and make it 5-1.
TRAINER’S ROOM
Rockies: OF Charlie Blackmon (right hamstring strain) stayed in Denver to work out this week, but manager Bud Black said he’s doing better. Black added that Blackmon, whose stint on the injured list was backdated to June 19, should be able to return the first day he’s eligible to come off the IL.
Astros: OF Kyle Tucker (bruised right shin) remains sore but is making progress, according to manager Joe Espada. Tucker took swings off a batting tee this weekend and Espada said the next step is to do some work in the outfield.
UP NEXT
Houston RHP Spencer Arrighetti (3-6, 6.36 ERA) opposes RHP Ryan Feltner (1-6, 6.02) in the series finale Wednesday.