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After another disappointing playoff loss to the Golden State Warriors, Houston's front office, led by general manager Daryl Morey. chose to attack this summer the way they've attacked many summers: ultra aggressive. After hinting at it a couple of weeks ago, the Rockets have made it clear to everybody in the league that they will indeed be in the market for Philadelphia 76ers free agent Jimmy Butler. This isn't a surprise to anyone who's played close attention to this team over the past decade, but it's definitely a bold direction to go in after the Western Conference has seemingly become wide-open after devastating injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.
However, publicly the Rockets have maintained that they will likely bring their starting five back with the addition of a strong role player through the use of their $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception.
"We're very confident going into next season," said Morey on The Dan Patrick Show two weeks ago. "Most contenders are scrambling to keep their five starters or put together their five starters. We've got our five starters that were the best team in the league down the stretch. We're going to add a mid-level (free agent) that's going to get us to six. That's worse case (scenario)."
So let's assume worst case scenario that the Rockets don't acquire Jimmy Butler. What kind of player can they realistically fetch with their taxpayer mid-level exception?
1. Danny Green
Danny Green has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the league of the past half decade. At 32-years-old, Green has taken a small step back over the past couple seasons. However, at 6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan, Green is still a really good defender who played a key role in two of the last six NBA champions (Spurs in 2014, Raptors in 2019). Green is also an excellent shooter (career 40.4% from three-point range) and could slot right into Houston's starting unit if the Rockets elect to move Eric Gordon back to the bench.
Normally, a player like Green would be demanding around $10-12 million in this market and out of Houston's price range, but the Rockets remain hopeful that they can land him. according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. It will be tough to pry Green from the defending champion Toronto Raptors and take an undermarket deal, but undermarket deals are what Houston's known for.
2. JaMychal Green
JaMychal Green is someone the Rockets targeted at the trade deadline along with the next player on this list, Garrett Temple. The Grizzlies prioritized finding deals for Marc Gasol and Mike Conley and the Rockets had to move fast, so they opted to trade for Iman Shumpert instead. Green is a huge wing, 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan - perfectly capable of playing and defending multiple positions. Though Green has been a slightly above average shooter for his career (36.9% from three-point range), he's shot nearly 40% from three-point range over the past three seasons.
The Clippers acquired Green with his bird-rights last season, making it really hard for a team like Houston to acquire him for the taxpayer mid-level exception. However, there's a chance the Rockets can offer a bigger role for Green than Los Angeles can. Houston's starting position may be tempting enough to sway Green.
3. Garrett Temple
Temple is another guy the Rockets targeted at the deadline, but were unsuccessful rebuffed by the Grizzlies. Temple is 6'6" with a giant wingspan of his own and he's used it successfully throughout his NBA career to be an effective perimeter defender. Temple is an average shooter (35.3% from 3-PT range), but it's his defensive versatility as a big guard who can defend forwards that would make him a preferred target for Houston.
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Rockets have had interest in Caldwell-Pope for some time now and tried to acquire him via trade earlier this year. Caldwell-Pope has caught a bad reputation because of his contract size and his agency (Klutch Sports), but he's a legitimately capable defender for a team that's been looking for someone who can defend quick guards for the past couple years. It's one of the reasons the Rockets drafted De'Anthony Melton last summer.
5. DeMarre Carroll
Carroll was briefly a Houston Rocket in 2011, but has come into his own as a player over the past decade as a solid perimeter defender who can capably shoot open three-pointers. Carroll has been thought of as a bad contract over the past couple years due to the four-year, $60 million deal he signed with the Raptors in 2015. However, at the taxpayer mid-level exception, you could do much worse than Carroll.
*Honorable mentions: Al-Farouq Aminu, Kevon Looney, Wesley Matthews, J.J. Reddick, and DeAndre Jordan.
*Nof listed because most of these free agents will be out of Houston's price range.
It's not the end of the world if the Rockets strike out on Butler, as there are a number of quality free agents on the market and many that didn't make this list. Houston could still come out of the summer of 2019 as a significantly better basketball team by just using the tools they have on-hand. It will be interesting to see who they come out of the fray with.
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Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, using him at DH about once per week would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Abreu most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options, and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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