Make no mistake, the Nationals are a formidable foe
5 reasons the Astros will win their second World Series title
Oct 22, 2019, 11:36 am
photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Astros and Washington Nationals square off in the World Series with a championship on the line. While the Astros are favored, the teams are closer than many think, and the Nats have that "team of destiny" look about them. But if all things are equal, the Astros should squeak out a victory. Here are five reasons it could happen:
1) Been there, done that
The one big edge the Astros have is they have been here before. The core players were all part of the 2017 title, and the stage will not be too big for them. A.J. Hinch has managed the team to a title before, so there should be no surprises. Make no mistake, the biggest stage can cause even the best players to wither. (Just ask Yordan Alvarez about that ALCS). So experience is huge, and the Astros have a big edge here.
2) Tougher path?
The Nationals upset a Dodgers juggernaut in five games in round 1. Make no mistake, that was no small feat. But the Cardinals put up little fight in the NLCS, allowing the Nationals to coast to the Series. Meanwhile, the Astros survived a five-game dogfight with a deep Tampa pitching staff, and knocked off perhaps the second best team in baseball by beating the 103 win Yankees in six games. They faced adversity in a big way twice and came out ahead. They will face a tough bunch of starting pitchers in Washington, but they have also faced strong arms in the first two series.
3) The bullpen. Yes, that bullpen
The Nationals may have an edge at starting pitcher as they go four deep as opposed to the Astros three, and all of them are pretty evenly matched with the Astros starters. But Houston has the better, deeper bullpen, and the later they get with a lead, the better chance they will have to win games than the Nationals. The pen was overmatched against Tampa and New York. It won't be against Washington.
4) The better lineup
Again, the Nationals are no joke. Anthony Rendon is a legitimate MVP candidate. Howie Kendrick has been a postseason savage. Juan Soto is one of the best young hitters in the game. But the Astros lineup top to bottom is more talented. They have not played like it in the postseason, but some of these guys are way overdue to wake up. Alex Bregman in particular is due for a breakout. And if they can get Alvarez going...
5) Jose Altuve and the offense
Despite the lineup's postseason struggles, Altuve has been consistent, effective and clutch. If nothing else, the Astros can depend on him no matter what. If any of George Springer, Carlos Correa, Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Alvarez get going, the Astros should have enough offense to get by.
The bottom line
Washington can absolutely win this series. Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg are every bit the match for Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. Beating the Dodgers was no fluke. This team was every bit as good as the Astros over the second half of the season. But thanks to the five reasons listed above, the Astros should be able to pull it out. If not, there will be no shame in losing to this team and it has still been a hell of a year. But it very well could - and should - end with the ultimate prize.
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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