Falcon Points
5 things that have to happen for Bill O'Brien's bizarre offseason to pan out
May 6, 2020, 6:55 am
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The Texans offseason has been a mess to say the least. One website had them with two of the worst five moves of the off-season. While it is hard to argue that the DeAndre Hopkins trade was anything but an unmitigated disaster, there is a chance this all works out. It's unlikely, but let's look at the possibilities.
1) Deshaun Watson takes the next step
Watson has been brilliant at times, shaky at others. He has developed into a fine starting quarterback. But he needs to take the next step and become consistently great. He will always be handcuffed by mediocre coaching, but great players overcome that. If Watson becomes great, he can make up for a lot of issues.
2) The receivers stay healthy
This is a big if, obviously. Brandin Cooks is coming off a concussion filled season. Randall Cobb is getting old. And Will Fuller is a hamstring waiting to happen. But if all of those guys can stay healthy, or even two of them, since Kenny Stills is a nice fallback, this could be a dynamic group. Would it be better with Hopkins? Of course. But at least their are weapons, speed and the potential to be a pretty good group. I certainly would not bet on them staying healthy, especially the peanut brittle mess that is Fuller, but if they do, fans might forget about Hopkins. It's not inconceivable that Cobb plus Cooks could replace his production.
3) Turn back the clock
To 2016, when running back David Johnson was not an overpaid stiff. If the Texans can get better production out of Johnson than they did last year's reclamation project, Carlos Hyde, then the running game should be pretty solid. As with all of these, it is a big if, and no matter what he does, Johnson is overpaid. But did you think Hyde would be a 1,000-yard back?
4) The OL takes a big step
Consistency in an offensive line usually leads to success. All five starters will be back, and with Laremy Tunsil locked up longterm, the tackle positions should be set. Tytus Howard was on his way to a Pro Bowl before getting hurt, and if he takes the next step, the Texans tackles could be as good as anyone. Max Scharping should improve in year two, and Nick Martin and Zach Fulton are at least middling players. Tunsil still has room to improve, but we will have to see if it happens now that he is paid. Regardless, this group should be a strength moving forward. It should be; the Texans have invested heavily. If they have invested wisely, this should be a solid group.
5) About that defense...
The defense was awful last season, generating little pash rush and the secondary was a mess. They have pretty much brought back the same group of corners, minus Johnathan Joseph, who simply can't play anymore. The hope is Lonnie Johnson takes a step forward and becomes worthy of his second-round pick status. They shuffled in some new safeties around Justin Reid, and the hope is it is an upgrade, although that seems iffy. Still, maybe they will be better on the back end. They are solid at linebacker, although Bernardrick McKinney and Whitney Mercilus are vastly overpaid. Maybe they generate some rush and improvement from Jacob Martin, Charles Omenihu, Jonathan Greenard and Duke Ejiofor. And of course, J.J. Watt has to stay healthy.
Of all the things that need to go right, this is the biggest question mark. But maybe a new defensive coordinator makes it all happen.
The bottom line
Yes, there is a lot of wishful thinking and hoping here. But that is what you do in the off-season. Even if all these things work out, the Texans are still not as good as the Chiefs or Ravens. But it could put them at the top of the rest of the conference, for whatever that's worth. Yes, the more likely scenario is they regress, maybe eke out another division title before a playoff exit. But if everything goes right and they stay relatively healthy? Maybe O'Brien's off-season does not look so bad. I wouldn't hold my breath, but hey, we all could use a little positive thinking right now.
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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