ON THE TRACK
5 under the radar horses to keep an eye on for the Kentucky Derby
Apr 16, 2018, 4:51 am
Justify will likely be the Derby favorite. Santaanita.com
The final Kentucky Derby points races took place over the weekend, and the field is taking shape. It is an intriguing year; the main contenders will be bucking history; no horse has won the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since 1882. Expect to hear that stat many times over the next three weeks because it applies to two horses; Justify and Magnum Moon.
Justify has just three starts. He is unbeaten, including an impressive win in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby. It was the fastest points prep in the six-year history of the system. Trainer Bob Baffert has won four Derbies and a Triple Crown with American Pharoah so he knows how to prepare for this race.
Justify will be the likely favorite, but he has beaten a grand total of 14 horses combined in his three races, and will face 19 on Derby Day alone. He is fast, but lacks the base of a Derby winner.
Magnum Moon is now 4-for-4 after winning the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion. Trainer Todd Pletcher has four of the top five points earners for the Derby. Magnum Moon, like Justify, did not race at 2. He won the Arkansas Derby on Saturday by four lengths, but did it in front-running fashion, set soft fractions and drifted out badly in the stretch. Those are things that will get him beat in Kentucky.
Another serious contender is Mendelssohn, who will be trying to be the first horse to prep in Dubai and win the Kentucky Derby. He won by 18 lengths in Dubai, and also won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, so he has experience winning while shipping over. More on him in a minute.
So we won’t know who all will be in the gate in three weeks; injuries will happen. We also need to wait for the draw and see the works over the track before making any final determinations. In general I like to play against Pletcher horses in the Derby, but it will be hard to get around all of them (Audible in particular). Justify will probably have to be used as well. But after watching all the preps, here are five not-so-0bvious horses I might be using on Derby Day. They all should provide some value at the windows.
Mendelssohn. Usually Dubai horses are instant bet-againsts, but he was incredibly dominant in the UAE Derby, has shipped back and forth before with success and was battle tested as a 2-year-old. You have to worry about whether or not he will bounce off such a huge effort, but if not he could be a serious factor.
Bolt D’Oro. Another battle-tested sort who was no match for Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, but he should fare better with a legitimate pace in front of him and will appreciate the extra distance.
Combatant. Currently 21st on the list, he will need a defection to get in, but he is the kind of stretch running nibbler who can blow up the trifecta at a nice price. He was fourth in Arkansas, but had little pace to run at. That should not be the case in Kentucky. This year’s Lookin’ at Lee?
Enticed. Has a win over the Churchill surface and his second in the Wood should have him perfectly set up for the Derby. Will likely get overlooked, but has a real shot.
Good Magic. Last year’s Juvenile winner has raced just twice this year, a third in Florida and a win in the Bluegrass Stakes. Has not been the fastest runner in 2018, but he should be sitting on his best race.
While all of these are interesting, the post position draw the week of the race will be critical. Also, there is usually one standout horse in the works over the track the week before, and that will certainly impact which direction we will go.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
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