Breaking it down
A complete, horse-by-horse look at the Belmont Stakes field
Jun 5, 2019, 3:00 pm
Preakness winner War of Will looks to take the Belmont. Getty Images.
Saturday is the last of the Triple Crown races for 2019 with the Belmont Stakes. There is no shot at a Triple Crown, so basically it is just another nice stakes race. Here is a look at the 10 horses in the field.
No. 1 Joevia (30-1)
Trainer: Greg Sacco
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Why he can win: He has one weapon in his arsenal - speed. He will be the early pacesetter, and if he is not, he has no shot. The Belmont - despite being the longest of the Triple Crown races, tends to favor early foot, so he will gun and hope. Probably not good enough to hold on all the way but could hang around for a piece late.
No. 2 Everfast (12-1)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Why he can win: He did run second in the Preakness at a monster price. But horses that did not run in the Derby, then fared well in the Preakness historically struggle at Belmont. Plus he is a deep closer, and that style rarely wins here. Might clunk up for a piece late.
No. 3 Master Fencer (8-1)
Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Why he can win: Was surprisingly beaten just four lengths in the Derby and was moving well at the end. Japan based horses win a lot of races around the world and while this guy is second tier there, he should love the distance and could be a live long shot in a field lacking quality. Would not be shocked if he is in it at the end.
No. 4 Tax (15-1)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he can win: He has some nice races on his resume, but was no match for Tacitus in the Wood Memorial and was no threat in the Derby. Plus he has a horrible name. Would need significant improvement in this spot, but I think we have seen his best and it does not appear to be good enough.
No. 5 Bourbon War (12-1)
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Mike Smith
Why he can win: We loved him in the Preakness, and he simply did not fire at all. Horses skipping the Derby and doing the Preakness/Belmont double rarely do well, but he might have needed the last race off a layoff, he should handle the distance and not ready to give up on him. Will be a long shot play.
No. 6 Spinoff (15-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Why he can win: He was a strong second in the Louisiana Derby, is lightly raced and should improve. Still, he was no factor whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby and probably does not want any part of the distance here. Pass.
No. 7 Sir Winston (12-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Why he can win: He doesn't very often - just twice in nine starts - but he was a good closing second in the prep for this and tends to hit the board at big prices. A classic grinder, would not be surprised if he picked up some pieces late and helped blow up the trifecta price.
No. 8 Intrepid Heart (10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Why he can win: He has only raced three times, so there is room for improvement. He finished behind Sir Winston in his first stakes try, running third. But he is bred to go farther, and they spent $750,000 on him. A big step up but won't be surprised if he is a small factor.
No. 9 War of Will (2-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Why he can win: His Preakness was a thing of beauty after the rodeo that was the Derby. At his best, he generally stalks the pace and takes control late. Expect him to be in the front tier of horses and try to employ that strategy again. Could win, but could also find himself off the board if he throws in one of his occasional clunkers.
No. 10 Tacitus (9-5)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Why he can win: The morning line favorite was probably the second best horse in the Derby. He hated the surface, was unsettled, and still managed to finish fourth, beaten less than four lengths. (He was placed second). He is bred to love the distance, should get a better track today and will be very tough to beat if he brings his A game.
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As the Astros head down the homestretch, it appears some reinforcements are arriving at the perfect time.
One day after the return of Justin Verlander to the starting rotation, the Astros are adding a top-notch high-leverage relief pitcher.
According to multiple reports, the Astros are signing former Houston reliever Hector Neris.
The Astros are close to a major-league deal with reliever Héctor Neris, source confirms what @AriA1exander first reported. The Cubs DFAd Neris earlier this week. Houston would be on the hook for the prorated league minimum salary.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 22, 2024
The timing of this move couldn't be better, with Ryan Pressly on the injured list and Bryan Abreu racking up a massive amount of innings.
Neris was arguably the club's most dominant relief pitcher last season, posting a 1.71 ERA and coming up with some huge outs in the postseason.
Neris also brings leadership to a team that lost Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley after the 2023 season.
His ability to get left-handed hitters out with his nasty splitter will definitely come in handy down the stretch and hopefully into the playoffs.
Last season, Neris held left-handed batters to a .155 batting average and only allowed one homer to lefties. He was also effective against righties, who only recorded a .187 batting average against him.
If he's so good, why did the Cubs release him?
If Neris had continued pitching for Chicago, he would have hit certain milestones in his contract that would guarantee his salary for next season. So the Cubs decided to put him on waivers and eventually DFA him.
Neris also won't be expected to be the team's closer in Houston. He will provide Joe Espada with another quality option to attack hitters late in games.
And while Kaleb Ort and Tayler Scott have been pleasant surprises this season, 2024 has been an outlier when looking at their career numbers.
Also, Scott has been used a lot this season, and we're seeing some diminishing returns. In his last 8 outings, he's given up at least one run in 4 of them.
What should we expect?
Neris is sporting a 3.89 ERA in 2024, but the biggest concern is his 1.52 WHIP. His WHIP is inflated because of the massive amount of walks he's allowing.
Hector is surrendering over FIVE walks per nine innings this season. A number he's only reached in the COVID-shorted season.
Last year, he walked a little over four batters per nine innings. So he's walking one extra hitter per nine this season. And when we look back at his 2022 numbers with the 'Stros, he was only allowing free passes at a rate of 2.3 per nine innings.
Hopefully, reuniting with the Houston pitching coaches will help him get that walk number down and make him more effective.
Double whammy!
Neris had a lot of interest since his release from the Cubs, so it says a lot that he wanted to return to Houston instead of going to the Yankees, Red Sox, or another contending team. Plus, his signing with the 'Stros not only strengthens them, but also keeps him from making one of Houston's competitors stronger.
It's a win-win for Hector. If he pitches well for the remainder of the season, he'll likely get another nice contract in the offseason either from the Astros or another team.
If Neris pitches up to his potential and Pressly returns healthy and effective, it's hard to imagine a better bullpen than the Astros'.
He also provides an extra arm to go to when Josh Hader, Pressly, or Abreu are unavailable in a must-win situation.
Be sure to watch the video above as we examine the addition of Neris, and discuss how Alex Bregman's arm injury will impact the DH spot in the lineup, and the challenges this will present moving forward.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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