BREGMAN UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
A deep dive into Alex Bregman's mechanics reveals something interesting
Oct 23, 2020, 1:13 pm
Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images
Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.
All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.
Hard Hit % - 33.6%
Barrel % - 3.9%
K% - 14.4%
BB% - 13.3%
Chase % - 18.1%
Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.
There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.
His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.
Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.
Alex Bregman broke down his swing last night and it was interesting. pic.twitter.com/lNgCo2qlq8
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) September 25, 2020
Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.
The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.
The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.
He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.
Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.
It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.
Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.
Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.
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With Tuesday’s trade deadline fast approaching, the Astros will look to add the necessary pieces to sustain their recent winning ways and make another playoff run this season.
It's no secret Houston is in need of rotation help with players such as J.P. France, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy all needing season-ending surgeries. Even considering the presumptive returns of Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia in some capacity, it would behoove the Astros to acquire more pitching options to help solidify their rotation.
General manager Dana Brown has made it clear he will be looking to add both starting pitchers and players who can play first base.
Astros fans should expect their team to make a move or two by Tuesday’s deadline, just as they have done in years past.
Zach Eflin
Recent reports suggest the Astros are one of several teams interested in Rays’ pitcher Zach Eflin who has a 5-7 record and 4.09 ERA this season.
The 30-year-old signed a three-year, $40 million deal with the Rays prior to the 2023 season and would be an affordable option for the Astros if they were to acquire him.
Although the Rays have a 52-51 record, it doesn't seem like they will become buyers at the trade deadline and could sell off some of their pieces while staying competitive.
Historically speaking, Tampa Bay has never been afraid to let their higher level pitchers go as they did with Blake Snell prior to the 2021 season and Tyler Glasnow during this past offseason
The Rays have multiple pitchers returning from injuries and can afford to let someone like Eflin go.
The only pause the Astros might have is the asking price in return from the Rays. If this is the case, there are other short-term pitching options the Astros could look to instead.
Jack Flaherty
The Tigers are stuck in the middle between good and bad and don’t seem to be playoff contenders this season, making them an ideal candidate to become sellers at the trade deadline.
One of the biggest names on the trading block recently has been Jack Flaherty who has a 7-5 record with a 2.92 ERA and 133 strikeouts this season.
Considering he's a free agent at the end of the year, it shouldn’t cost the Astros much in return to acquire the Tigers' pitcher.
Houston has not been directly linked to the 28-year-old, but he could be a low-risk, high-reward rotation piece.
Flaherty could be a perfect number 3 or 4 option in the rotation behind Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown.
Yusei Kikuchi
Similarly to Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi is on a Blue Jays team with little to no playoff hopes this year and is set to become a free agent at the end of this season.
Toronto has already hinted at becoming sellers at the trade deadline and could look to offset many of their impending free agents.
Kikuchi’s record at 4-9 and 4.54 ERA might not be impressive, but he does have 133 strikeouts this season and can be a reliable back end of the rotation piece for the Astros if acquired.
Adding a starting pitcher is certainly a priority, but Houston will also scour the market for first base options as well.
Isaac Paredes
The Astros have been connected to Rays’ infielder Isaac Parades in the last few days and it seems to make sense for both sides.
As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay is in an interesting situation this season and could become pseudo sellers by the deadline.
The Rays have a plethora of infielders in their origination and can afford to trade someone like Parades and still remain competitive.
The 25-year-old can play first or third base, and has been used as a designated hitter this season as well. Parades has a slash line of .250/.353 /.797 and could be an improvement at first base over Jon Singleton.
Acquiring him could be affordable as his salary is only $3.4MM this year. Parades has three additional years of club control, and his defensive versatility could make him a perfect long-term addition to this Astros’ roster.
Brent Rooker
This one might be a stretch, but would it be shocking to see the A’s let go of one of their best players? The answer is no. Brent Rooker has had a remarkable season, hitting near .300 and becoming one of Oakland’s most consistent bats in their lineup.
The 29-year-old has been the A’s primary designated hitter this season, but has the ability to play both corner outfield positions as well.
Even though Houston doesn't need another DH/outfielder, Rooker's bat would be an upgrade in the lineup and could give the Astros another weapon to add to their offensive arsenal.
Although not as likely as the other candidates mentioned, Rooker would be a more realistic and cheaper option to acquire than someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Honorable Mentions
Starting pitchers Jameson Taillon (Cubs) and Erick Fedde (White Sox) have been linked to the Astros recently, and either would be an ideal fit.
Both players would add necessary pitching depth, and either could fit in seamlessly as a 4th or 5th starter in the rotation.
Needless to say, Houston seems to be casting a wide net to increase their odds of landing someone who can help the team immediately.
An ideal scenario would be for the Astros to acquire at least one pitcher and use a six-man rotation once Verlanader and Garcia come back at some point this year.
It would be beneficial for the Astros to acquire an extra starting pitcher or two to add to their rotation and maybe another option who can play first base as well to ensure this team continues to improve and make another run at the postseason this year.