SCOUTING THE DIVISION
AFC South playoff health check
Brian Schaible
Dec 3, 2017, 10:17 am
Marcus Mariota seems to have regressed. Andy Lyons/Getty Images
A look at the teams in the AFC South as they prepare for the stretch run:
Tennessee Titans 7-4
Symptoms: In now his third season, Marcus Mariota has appeared to regress at the quarterback position. With just nine touchdowns and a dismal 79.1 rating, the Titans have been very fortunate to squeak by with close victories against the Browns, Ravens, Bengals, and Colts.
Diagnosis: Despite inconsistent play on both sides of the ball, the Titans find themselves tied on top of the division with five games to play. From a statistical perspective, their road to 7-4 has been far less impressive than Jacksonville. However, it’s Tennessee who’s also responsible for the Jaguars biggest loss of the year with a 21 point throttling back in September.
Treatment: A healthy dose of Derrick Henry could catapult Mariota and the offense out of its extended malaise. Of his 520 rushing yards, 448 of them were gained during the seven victories. In last week’s victory against Indianapolis, Henry was critical down the stretch accumulating 78 4th quarter rushing yards.
Prognosis: The path to a wildcard berth looks a lot more likely than a division championship but, both are very much still in play. The Titans’ remaining schedule consists of: TEXANS, @cardinals, @49ers, RAMS, JAGUARS.
If Tennessee can stay within one game of Jacksonville, then a New Year’s Eve showdown will decide the division.
The Rams and Cardinals will certainly be tough challenges to overcome. Although, it’s looking more and more likely that nine wins will be enough to edge out the Bills or Ravens for a playoff spot. The Titans may be thankful come tiebreaker time for their three point victory over Baltimore.
Houston Texans 4-7
Symptoms: It’s one thing to overcome a key injury or two, but what do you do when every star player gets hurt? That’s essentially what Houston has dealt with for much of the season. It doesn’t get much better on Sunday with Will Fuller ruled out with a rib injury.
Diagnosis: Tom Savage clearly has chilled. Last week’s final two drives pretty much summed up the season, a fumble followed by an interception. It was a game they desperately needed and they showed nothing at all in the final quarter.
Treatment: Find a way to win them all! While it seems unlikely, they at least have a shot. If Houston can grind out a win against Tennessee, they then return home for a very winnable contest against the 49ers.
Prognosis: Much like the Packers in the NFC, this team just appears to be snakebit. While they are not technically eliminated, there are no other paths to the playoffs outside of the proverbial running the table. While the future looks bright, I don’t see a realistic postseason opportunity in the coming weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars 7-4
Symptoms: Blake Bortles.
Diagnosis: This is the fourth season the fans of Jacksonville have suffered through a real nasty case of the Bortles virus. While the record may appear impressive, Bortles arguably has played well in no more than three games this season. The dominant defense has been able to mask many of the side effects of having the former third pick overall under center. The biggest question for the Jaguars is how to put their quarterback in a position to not lose any games on his own. The ship has long sailed on any thoughts that Bortles could help propel the team to victories.
Treatment: Win the games you’re supposed to win. This means knocking off the Colts, 49ers, and the Texans for a second time. That alone will secure a playoff berth and possibly be enough to win the division.
Prognosis: The Jaguars really blew a big opportunity in Arizona last week. I expect them to rebound with three straight home games. A statement win against Seattle should position this bunch to be competing for a possible bye.
Indianapolis Colts 3-8
Prognosis: Nope. Not happening. Head Coach Chuck Pagano couldn’t have seemed more defeated after last week’s loss to Tennessee. The only drama left for this season is whether Pagano makes it through the final few weeks.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.