Falcon Points

After the off-season from hell, what do the Astros look like on the field in 2020?

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

The Astros apparently have a new manager in Dusty Baker. They soon will have a new GM. They have the same basic lineup as last year.

So with all the off-field turmoil, suspensions that became firings and high profile scandals, how will things play out on the field where it matters most?

One outlet had the Astros as the SEVENTH best team in baseball heading into the season. We will spare you the need to click on the story, and just tell you they had the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Rays, Nationals and Twins ahead of Houston.

Still a potent lineup

Unless you believe the only reason the Astros hitters were any good was the cheating scandal (and hey, there are those who think that), this is still one of the best lineups in all of baseball. While decisions will have to be made after the season on several key pieces (George Springer, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley most notably) for 2020 they are still loaded with Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Gurriel, Brantley, Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker all returning. No team outside of LA or New York can boast that kind of lineup. Jake Marisnick is gone, but presumably that opens up innings for Myles Straw, an exciting prospect with terrific speed, something the Astros do not have at that level in the lineup.

The bigger issue

The article's main issue is with the Astros starting pitching. Behind ace Justin Verlander and Zach Greinke are a lot of question marks. But few teams can match the Astros 1-2 punch. The names behind them though hardly inspire confidence. Lance McCullers will be on a pitch count coming off Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy has too small of a sample size. Forrest Whitley remains a myth. Austin Pruitt could be a sneaky good addition, however, and the Astros can always add someone at the trade deadline. More on that in a moment.

What about the bullpen?

The Astros lost Will Harris, but bring back Ryan Pressley, who was dominant until getting hurt, the controversial Roberto Osuna and Joe Smith on the back end. Josh James might be a contender to start, along with Brad Peacock. If not, they will help in relief. Harris was great for them last year, but the Astros in the past have done a terrific job of finding pitchers like that. Which brings us to the final question...

Loss of Luhnow

While the loss of A.J. Hinch can be mitigated - managers are not all that difficult to replace - life after GM Jeff Luhnow is a major question mark. Luhnow could be trusted to add players at the deadline (Verlander in 2017, Greinke in 2019), find some hidden gems (Charlie Morton) and add players that fit the Astros analytics approach. Will they still be that kind of team? Will Baker buy in if they are? Pitching coach Brent Strom remains, and should continue to work his magic. But will Luhknow's replacement be able to find the right kind of arms for him? Will the new analytics team be as effective?

These are all valid questions.

However...

Putting them seventh seems more like wishful thinking from a bitter media. The 2021 Astros will have serious questions and in fact might plummet out of contention entirely, depending on what moves happen in the next 12 months. But for 2020? Sure, Verlander and Greinke could both fall off the map, the other starters fail to stabilize and the team simply does not get it done. But that is a lot to go wrong. More likely, the lineup continues to pound the ball, Verlander and Greinke carry them and someone else emerges as decent 2-3 rotation pieces. That being the case, the only team that enters the season in the AL better on paper is the Yankees, who were almost as good as the Astros last season and poached one of their best weapons, and figure to be healthier in 2020.

Distractions?

Yes it has been wild off-season. But other than Luhnow, does it have any real impact on what happens on the field? Probably not. There could be some regressions - Alvarez most notably - but the offense has more than enough weapons. Straw could wind up being a sneaky good weapon. Tucker could finally emerge. If that happens, the so-called distractions will have minimal if any impact on the product on the field.

So yes, seventh seems a but silly, but fortunately, baseball scribes with their biases don't determine what happens on the field. The players do.

And the Astros still have plenty of those.

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The Tigers host the Astros for a three-game set starting Monday night. Composite Getty Image.

The Orioles series didn’t just sting; it left behind some red flags the Astros can’t ignore. For all the excitement that came with Carlos Correa’s arrival, Houston has stumbled to a 7-8 record since the trade deadline. Correa has delivered at the plate, but the support around him has been spotty at best. Jesús Sánchez and Cam Smith have both gone cold in August, hitting .188 and .205, respectively, and those struggles have only magnified the bigger issue: the Astros are sputtering both on the mound and at the plate.

The numbers paint the picture. Houston sits in the bottom third across the league this month in both pitching and offense — 25th in runs scored, 20th in OPS, and 23rd in ERA with a 4.93 mark. Once the backbone of this team, the rotation has wobbled. Framber Valdez has posted a 5.89 ERA over three August starts, Spencer Arrighetti has been roughed up for a 7.27 ERA in two outings, and Brian King and Bennett Sousa have been hit hard out of the bullpen as well.

This stretch of games was supposed to be where the Astros put their foot down in the division race. Instead, they’ve left the door wide open. If Houston doesn’t take advantage, Seattle is more than capable of snatching away the AL West. The Astros should still be able to cling to a wild-card spot, but the margin for error is shrinking by the day.

A silver lining?

Help, at least on paper, is on the way. Dana Brown has said Lance McCullers Jr. is close to rejoining the rotation, with Luis Garcia set for one more rehab start before a return. J.P. France isn’t far behind either. That would give Houston eight legitimate starters, even if they shift to a six-man rotation. It’s hard to imagine all of them sticking in starting roles — which means some will inevitably move into the bullpen.

That bullpen, though, has been a problem. Since July 7, Houston’s relievers have watched their ERA balloon from 3.21 to 4.99. Losing Josh Hader for the rest of the regular season only makes that situation more urgent.

The Astros still control their own fate in the AL West, but the cracks are obvious. Between an offense that has gone quiet, a rotation fighting inconsistency, and a bullpen trending in the wrong direction, the club is walking a fine line. If things don’t change soon, this season could shift from promising to precarious in a hurry.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!

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