BACK IN THE RING
A.J. Hoffman: Even without Canelo, GGG's next fight is worth a watch
May 4, 2018, 8:43 am
I know, I know. This was supposed to be a preview of the biggest fight boxing can put on. This was supposed to be a preview of Gennady Golovkin getting revenge for the horrific judging that put the only blemish, albeit a draw, on his record. Alas, Canelo Alvarez ate some bad beef, and here we are, settling for what at first glance doesn’t appear to be a very competitive matchup.
Vanes Martirosyan isn’t Canelo Alvarez. He isn’t even Billy Joe Saunders, Demetrius Andrade, Jamie Munguia or Jermall Charlo. He is an interesting opponent for a few reasons, though. He sits at 36-3-1, and none of those losses carry any shame. He fought Erislandy Lara twice, to a technical draw in 2012 and a close loss in 2016. He lost to Jermell Charlo and the aforementioned Demetrius Andrade, also in very competitive fights. Martirosyan has a solid right hand, good hand speed and does a good job of avoiding counterpunches. He is also a fighter with nothing to lose. There is really no scenario where Martirosyan underperforms his expectations in this bout. He is supposed to be a sacrificial lamb, and even making the fight competitive would be considered a bit of a moral victory.
Here is the bad news for Vanes. He hasn’t fought in two years. He is also not a natural middleweight, and will likely be the smaller man in the ring on Saturday night.
Golovkin is the one with everything to lose. He realizes that this fight is all that stands between him and a likely date in September for the Canelo rematch, and the large pile of money that would come along with that fight (although recent reports have GGG saying he isn’t all that interested in the fight anymore). Golovkin has gone the distance in his last two fights. As unlucky as he was on the scorecards against Canelo the first time out, he may have been as lucky on them in his fight with Daniel Jacobs. Jacobs was the first man that made Golovkin look beatable. He is 36 years old after all, and probably not she same terminator he was five years ago, which means every fight at this point is a risk.
GGG still is the best pressure fighter in the sport. Maybe he will look at this fight as a chance to sharpen up for a bigger fight. Maybe he will look to prove that he can still put guys to sleep and show Canelo and Oscar De La Hoya that he doesn’t feel as old as they have tried to make him sound of late. Maybe he is overly frustrated with the entire situation, and doesn’t perform as well as he should against this opponent because he is distracted.
At the end of the day, you watch Golovkin fights for two reasons. A- You want to see someone push him and make him look human. B- You want to see him behead another challenger and have another unintentionally hilarious post-fight interview with Max Kellerman. Whichever one of those two categories you fall into, Saturday night has the possibility of scratching your GGG itch.
PREDICTION: Golovkin by KO (Round 2)
Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 knockouts) takes on Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 knockouts) Saturday night at 10:00 CST on HBO.
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.