FINAL FOUR
A.J. Hoffman: Predicting this weekend's Final Four games
Mar 30, 2018, 7:26 am
Villanova looks tough again. Elsa/Getty Images
We are down to four. All of these teams have had a tough path to this point, and all of them have absolutely earned the right to be in San Antonio. Here is a quick look at the first two matchups that will decide who will play for the right to cut down the nets on Monday.
#11 Loyola-Chicago (32-5, 15-3 Missouri Valley) vs. #3 Michigan (32-7, 13-5 Big 10)
Michigan -5.5, O/U129.5
Loyola is the undisputed Cinderella of the dance this year, and they are hoping there are a couple more chapters left in their storybook season. Loyola does a good job of spacing the floor on offense, and are always willing to make the extra pass. Coach Porter Moser prefers to play a small lineup, sometimes playing with five guards. When they go big, the key for them is Cameron Krutwig, at least on the offensive end of the floor. He could be a key factor for Loyola on that end, but he is a serious liability against the pick and roll offense of Michigan on the other end of the floor. Michigan showed against Texas A&M what they, and particularly Moe Wagner, can do when your bigs can’t defend on the perimeter. For this reason I would expect Loyola to play with a mostly small lineup and try to win with Clayton Custer penetrating and defenses collapsing on him to open up teammates. Assuming the small lineup is in play, Michigan is going to have a massive size advantage. Wagner is 6’11”. Duncan Robinson is 6’8.” Even Charles Matthews, at 6’6” is going to have a size advantage over the Ramblers guards. All of these guys can shoot, and all of them create matchup problems on offense. If Loyola can keep their shooting percentage around their season average of 50%, they could play for the title on Monday. As fun as that would be, it will be tough against one of the best defenses in the country.
PREDICTION: Michigan 65, Loyola 61
#1 Kansas (31-7, 13-5 Big XII) vs. #1 Villanova (34-4, 14-4 Big East)
Villanova -5, O/U 155
Villanova is the best offensive team in the country. They score 87 points per game. They shoot 50% from the floor and they average 12 3-pointers per game. They are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, and they don’t turn the ball over. This is a juggernaut offense. Jalen Brunson should be the player of the year, and he has looked unstoppable in the tournament. This team can play defense too, though. They beat Texas Tech on that end, and they will look to do it again against the Jayhawks. Kansas looks like Nova in a lot of ways. They are excellent from distance, with their backcourt of Malik Newman, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, and Devonte’ Graham leading the way. Graham is just as legit a contender for Player of the Year honors as Brunson. Their 7-footer, Udoka Azubuike, could be the X-factor in the matchup. He was key in Kansas’ win over Duke, who are better in the frontcourt than the Wildcats, but Jay Wright has a way of making opposing big men seem obsolete. Newman has been unstoppable in this tournament, but Nova has Mikal Bridges to defend him. Bridges is a likely NBA lottery pick who presents a different level of size and athleticism than Newman has seen in the tournament. It’s easy to say whoever hits their shots will win this game, but Nova’s ability to play 5-out and Kansas’ inability to match it seems to be the key in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Villanova 91, Kansas 79
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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