FINAL FOUR
A.J. Hoffman: Predicting this weekend's Final Four games
Mar 30, 2018, 7:26 am
Villanova looks tough again. Elsa/Getty Images
We are down to four. All of these teams have had a tough path to this point, and all of them have absolutely earned the right to be in San Antonio. Here is a quick look at the first two matchups that will decide who will play for the right to cut down the nets on Monday.
#11 Loyola-Chicago (32-5, 15-3 Missouri Valley) vs. #3 Michigan (32-7, 13-5 Big 10)
Michigan -5.5, O/U129.5
Loyola is the undisputed Cinderella of the dance this year, and they are hoping there are a couple more chapters left in their storybook season. Loyola does a good job of spacing the floor on offense, and are always willing to make the extra pass. Coach Porter Moser prefers to play a small lineup, sometimes playing with five guards. When they go big, the key for them is Cameron Krutwig, at least on the offensive end of the floor. He could be a key factor for Loyola on that end, but he is a serious liability against the pick and roll offense of Michigan on the other end of the floor. Michigan showed against Texas A&M what they, and particularly Moe Wagner, can do when your bigs can’t defend on the perimeter. For this reason I would expect Loyola to play with a mostly small lineup and try to win with Clayton Custer penetrating and defenses collapsing on him to open up teammates. Assuming the small lineup is in play, Michigan is going to have a massive size advantage. Wagner is 6’11”. Duncan Robinson is 6’8.” Even Charles Matthews, at 6’6” is going to have a size advantage over the Ramblers guards. All of these guys can shoot, and all of them create matchup problems on offense. If Loyola can keep their shooting percentage around their season average of 50%, they could play for the title on Monday. As fun as that would be, it will be tough against one of the best defenses in the country.
PREDICTION: Michigan 65, Loyola 61
#1 Kansas (31-7, 13-5 Big XII) vs. #1 Villanova (34-4, 14-4 Big East)
Villanova -5, O/U 155
Villanova is the best offensive team in the country. They score 87 points per game. They shoot 50% from the floor and they average 12 3-pointers per game. They are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, and they don’t turn the ball over. This is a juggernaut offense. Jalen Brunson should be the player of the year, and he has looked unstoppable in the tournament. This team can play defense too, though. They beat Texas Tech on that end, and they will look to do it again against the Jayhawks. Kansas looks like Nova in a lot of ways. They are excellent from distance, with their backcourt of Malik Newman, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, and Devonte’ Graham leading the way. Graham is just as legit a contender for Player of the Year honors as Brunson. Their 7-footer, Udoka Azubuike, could be the X-factor in the matchup. He was key in Kansas’ win over Duke, who are better in the frontcourt than the Wildcats, but Jay Wright has a way of making opposing big men seem obsolete. Newman has been unstoppable in this tournament, but Nova has Mikal Bridges to defend him. Bridges is a likely NBA lottery pick who presents a different level of size and athleticism than Newman has seen in the tournament. It’s easy to say whoever hits their shots will win this game, but Nova’s ability to play 5-out and Kansas’ inability to match it seems to be the key in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Villanova 91, Kansas 79
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Coming off the bye week the Houston Texans received good news as both LB Christian Harris and LG Kenyon Green have been designated to return from injury.
The timing couldn't be better with Harris considering the loss of LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who was suspended for three games for his hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans hasn't announced a return to game action for Harris or Green, the plan is to see how they progress over the course of the week before making any decisions.
When joining the Texans YouTube channel this week, Ryans described Green as a “player that can move people in the run game,” but also acknowledged his issues in pass protection that need to be cleaned up.
While Green was only on the field for three of the whopping 8 sacks on CJ Stroud the last time he started a game, it must be pointed out that he was atrocious that Thursday night against the Jets.
And that was following up a game against the Colts that got him benched for his struggles. If not for Jarrett Patterson suffering a concussion against Indy, Green shouldn't have been on the field versus New York.
That's why Ryans' comments about Green returning are so concerning. “If he's ready to get back out there, I think he can help us,” said the Texans head coach.
To be fair, it's not like the Texans have had much success with Juice Scruggs at guard and Patterson at center. But at least they haven't been a complete disaster in pass protection like they were with Green in the lineup. Green was getting beat quick or missing assignments that led to immediate pressures and big hits on Stroud.
Ground and pound?
There's a narrative out there that Green is the better option when it comes to run blocking. But no matter how you frame it, he was one of the worst, if not the worst, guard in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus before suffering the injury.
Somehow that's supposed to change after returning from a dislocated shoulder? I don't buy it. And considering the Texans' upcoming schedule, they're probably going to struggle with running the ball against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Titans, whether he plays or not.
Those teams are strong against the run, and the Texans would be wise to try to beat them with the passing game, considering the matchup.
Another narrative out there is that GM Nick Caserio wants to give Green every possible opportunity to succeed because he spent a 1st-round pick on Green, and passed up several Pro Bowl players in doing so.
For me, that argument falls a bit flat. Caserio used a 2nd-round pick on Scruggs, so he has a lot invested in both players. However, Scruggs isn't without criticism. He's been an obvious weakness at guard, though he did play much better against the Jaguars last week. It's the Jags, read into that what you will. But Caserio did admit recently that Scruggs is a better center than guard.
Perhaps the plan is to put Scruggs back at center with Green returning. But that could spell trouble as well. The communication issues on the o-line seem to have improved with Patterson at center.
At the end of the day, the number one job for the o-line has to be protecting Stroud, who has been the second-most sacked QB this season (41).
He's taken a sack in every game this year, and has been sacked four or more times in six of thirteen games. Four of those six games featured Green as the starting guard.
Up next
Houston will get their first test after the bye week as they host the 6–7 Dolphins, who still have something to play for. Despite the Texans' up and down season, they can clinch a playoff berth with a win over Miami, and a loss from the Colts.