In the octagon

A.J. Hoffman: Previewing UFC 223

A.J. Hoffman: Previewing UFC 223
When Healthy, Khabib Nurmagomedov is one of the best in the world. Wikipedia

UFC 223 is, at least on paper, the best card of the year for the promotion. Despite the efforts by the MMA gods to sabotage the card by injuring Tony Ferguson, Max Holloway steps in on six days notice to fight maybe the most dominant grappler the UFC has ever seen. The stakes are high for both men, as the UFC stripped Conor McGregor of his 155 lb. title this week and announced that the Nurmagomedov-Holloway fight is for the lightweight title. Unfortunately, there have been three fights drop off the card in the last 24 hours. Artem Lobov vs. Alex Caceres, Ray Borg vs. Brandon Moreno and Michael Chiesa vs. Anthony Pettis have all been dropped in the aftermath of the Conor McGregor chair-throwing meltdown. Here is a preview of the card. 

The headliner will feature Khabib Nurmagomedov, who has long been considered one of the best in the world WHEN HEALTHY, taking on the 145 lb. champion Max Holloway. Khabib is 25-0, and holds the longest MMA winning streak among active fighters, while his 9-0 start in the UFC gives him the fifth longest streak in the company. He has been an unstoppable force when the fight goes to the ground. He landed 88 significant ground strikes on Michael Johnson at UFC 205. He also hasn't had much problem taking opponents down. Holloway is one of the few fighters with a longer UFC winning streak than Khabib. He has won 12 straight fights in the organization. Holloway will obviously prefer to keep things on the feet. He has seven knockouts at 145 pounds, the most in the history of the division. The winner of this fight puts his name firmly in the mix for best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. 

Joanna Jedrzejczyk gets a shot at revenge against Rose Namajunas, who took her title and dealt her the first loss in her career back at UFC 217. Joanna, one of the sharpest and most technical strikers in UFC history, was overwhelmed by Rose in the first fight. Joanna has always had the mental edge in her fights, and has always exuded confidence. It may be tough to present that confidence against a woman who knocked her out just a couple of months ago. If Rose can throw her off her game plan early, she could have a big advantage. Rose made a quiet climb to title contention, and has burst into the spotlight since winning the title. The pressure is on her this time, and it will be interesting to see how she responds to not being a massive underdog like she was in the first fight. 

Renato Moicano takes on Calvin Kattar in a battle of fighters nearing top 5-10 in the division. Moicano is a BJJ black belt with good wrestling (a rarity sometimes in MMA), while Kattar is an excellent boxer that uses his superior footwork and jabs to control fights. Moicano will have to decide if he is better off counter-punching or counter-grappling. Kattar has yet to lose in the UFC, and Moicano's lone career loss came against Brian Ortega, who is the top contender in the featherweight division. 

Al Iaquinta fights for the first time in over a year, as he has been selling real estate while involved in a UFC contract dispute. He is a solid boxer with good power and a strong wrestling base. Paul Felder is on the best run of his career, using his nasty elbow game to give him 3 straight UFC wins. This is a step up in competition though. A win for Felder will move him into the rankings, where a loss to the dangerous Iaquinta basically firms him up as a solid gatekeeper in the 155 lb. division.

The prelims include several familiar faces, including Joe Lauzon, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and an exciting matchup between Evan Dunham and Olivier Aubin-Mercier. 

PREDICTIONS:

Nurmagomedov by TKO

Jedrzejczyk by DEC

Moicano by DEC

Iaquinta by TKO

Kowalkiewicz by DEC

Lauzon by SUB

Dunham by DEC

Magomedsharipov by TKO

Evans-Smith by DEC

Rodriguez by SUB

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Alex Bregman and the Astros are running out of time. Composite Getty Image.

There’s a sign outside of McDonald’s that keeps track of the millions and millions of hamburgers they’ve sold.

There could be a sign outside Minute Maid Park that keeps track of the millions and millions of dollars Alex Bregman is losing by having the worst season of his career in his contract year.

Maybe instead of appearing in H-E-B commercials he could sign an endorsement deal with Rice Krispies and be part of Snap, Crackle and Pop Out.

Tuesday night, Bregman went 0-4 against the Yankees and his batting average dropped below .200 into Martin Maldonado territory.

Bregman entered this season claiming to be in the best shape of his life and promising big things for 2024.

“My body feels in incredible shape,” Bregman said at the start of spring training. “Swing feels better than ever. And looking forward to a great, healthy season. And I expect to have the best season I’ve ever had.”

And remember when Astros general manager Dana Brown assured fans, don’t worry, we’re going to offer Bregman a contract to stay with the Astros?

“Look, we love Alex, we’d love to have him here. As far as a timeline, we just don’t have it, but we will at some point make him an offer. We know how good he is and how good he’s been for this franchise. It would be tough to look out at third base and not see that elite defense. And so at some point we’ll circle back and have those conversations,” Brown said.

Godot will show up before the Astros put a contract on the table for Bregman. (For those who didn’t read Waiting for Godot in English Lit 101 … Godot never appears in the book.)

With the season nearly a quarter over, Bregman is batting .195. He’s been hitting at the top of the order the entire year, either in the No. 2 spot or cleanup. His power outage would make the Texas grid system look good: 6 runs, 11 RBI and one home run.

Stop saying “Bregman always has a slow start.” Start ended a couple of weeks ago. And stop saying “He will snap out of it.” In his last 10 games, Bregman’s average has dwindled from .216 to .195.

Bregman’s hitting woes actually are part of a five-year trend. In 2019 he had his best season, hitting .296 and smacking 41 home runs.

Since then:

2020: .242 and 6 home runs (Covid season).

2021: .270 and 12 home runs.

2022: .259 and 23 home runs.

2023: .262 and 25 home runs.

If Bregman’s struggles continue, this will be his fifth below-average season in a row. Back in spring training, there was talk of him getting a super long-term deal worth $200 million-plus when he hits free agency at the end of this season.

Chances of that happening: none. As things stand now, Bregman has a better chance of becoming Jerry Seinfeld’s latex salesman.

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