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A.J. Hoffman: The Texans top 5 needs heading into free agency and the draft
Feb 23, 2018, 3:59 pm
The Texans need a much better backup QB than Tom Savage. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
The Texans have a lot of holes to fill this offseason. A LOT. Unfortunately, they don’t have unlimited draft picks, and it’s hard to get 40 new players in a single offseason. So I decided to try and prioritize the needs of the Texans and rank the Top 5 needs.
5. Tight End
This may be the least likely group that the Texans will look to fix. They have made investments in the position, it just hasn’t worked out. They took C.J. Fiedorowicz in the third round in 2014. He finally started to look like a player, but now his career is in doubt due to multiple concussions. Ryan Griffin got a 3-year, $9M contract, but has not looked worth the money and the Texans could cut him this offseason with no salary cap repercussions. Stephen Anderson has shown flashes, but can’t be depended on as a key guy just yet. You will hear Texans fan clamoring for Jimmy Graham this offseason, but it seems unlikely they would want to pay the brand-name markup at a position where they have been swinging and missing so frequently.
4. Backup quarterback
The Texans have one quarterback under contract, and he is coming off a torn ACL. Watson is obviously the man in Houston for the foreseeable future, but health concerns mean it is imperative that the Texans shore up the backup role. The smart move would be to find a veteran backup quarterback in free agency and pick up another late in the draft. There is no lack of quarterback play in the free agency market this season, as established vets like Josh McCown, Matt Moore, Teddy Bridgewater and A.J. McCarron are available. The question becomes if these guys will want to hold out for a starting job, or are willing to backup a rising star like Watson.
3. Cornerback
Once considered a strength in Houston, the cornerback play has declined sharply in the last year. In hindsight, it was clearly a mistake to move on from A.J. Bouye and instead keep Jonathan Joseph, who is likely on his way out now. There was much belief that Kevin Johnson was ready to take a big step forward and become a No. 1 corner. If anything, he took a step back last season and injury concerns are mounting with him. Kareem Jackson no longer looks like a guy you can trust in coverage. Malcolm Butler is the top free agent cornerback in this class, but will likely come with a massive price tag. There are cheaper alternatives though, such as E.J. Gaines, Darqueze Dennard, Kyle Fuller and Trumaine Johnson. It would make sense for the Texans to bring in a free agent and invest a draft pick in cornerback. Another hole is strong safety, and they may look to shuffle around some bodies to fill that need as well.
2. Guard
Let’s just lay it out there. Xavier Sua-Filo was a complete bust as a second round draft pick. Jeff Allen has ben a complete bust as a free agent. The best offensive linemen that the Texans have right now are Nick Martin and Greg Mancz. Unfortunately they both play center. Martin has the versatility to fill one of the guard spots, but he has also missed more than half of the team’s games in his two years as a Texan. The best free agent guard available is Andrew Norwell, but like we discussed with Malcolm Butler earlier, that will come at a hefty price. Justin Pugh, who played last season at right tackle for the Giants, would benefit from a move back inside. Josh Sitton is 32 years old, but would be a massive upgrade and probably has 2-3 good years left in him. Guard, like corner, will need to be hit in free agency and the draft
1. Tackle
You probably guessed this when we were discussing the disastrous offensive line above. The Texans decision to move Duane Brown clearly wasn’t based solely on football, because they had no serviceable replacement in-house and the free agent market doesn’t have anyone better than him. Derek Newton is still recovering from his double patella tears, and it seems unlikely he will ever be the same. Unfortunately for the Texans, when teams have great tackles, they typically don’t let them get to free agency, so the cupboard is somewhat bare. Nate Solder is the biggest brand name, but he is 30 and not coming off his best year. Another free agent out of New England, Cameron Fleming, is appealing to me. He is only 26 and filled in nicely at right tackle for Marcus Cannon last season. Ja’Wuan James was the lone bright spot on a horrific line in Miami, and may be the best available tackle, but is better suited for the right side. Chris Hubbard has been the swing man in Pittsburgh and looks like he could handle a starter’s workload. There are also guys like Andre Smith and Greg Robinson, once highly thought of and now tossed aside, that could be looked at as reclamation projects.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.