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A.J. Hoffman: The Texans top 5 needs heading into free agency and the draft
Feb 23, 2018, 3:59 pm
The Texans need a much better backup QB than Tom Savage. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
The Texans have a lot of holes to fill this offseason. A LOT. Unfortunately, they don’t have unlimited draft picks, and it’s hard to get 40 new players in a single offseason. So I decided to try and prioritize the needs of the Texans and rank the Top 5 needs.
5. Tight End
This may be the least likely group that the Texans will look to fix. They have made investments in the position, it just hasn’t worked out. They took C.J. Fiedorowicz in the third round in 2014. He finally started to look like a player, but now his career is in doubt due to multiple concussions. Ryan Griffin got a 3-year, $9M contract, but has not looked worth the money and the Texans could cut him this offseason with no salary cap repercussions. Stephen Anderson has shown flashes, but can’t be depended on as a key guy just yet. You will hear Texans fan clamoring for Jimmy Graham this offseason, but it seems unlikely they would want to pay the brand-name markup at a position where they have been swinging and missing so frequently.
4. Backup quarterback
The Texans have one quarterback under contract, and he is coming off a torn ACL. Watson is obviously the man in Houston for the foreseeable future, but health concerns mean it is imperative that the Texans shore up the backup role. The smart move would be to find a veteran backup quarterback in free agency and pick up another late in the draft. There is no lack of quarterback play in the free agency market this season, as established vets like Josh McCown, Matt Moore, Teddy Bridgewater and A.J. McCarron are available. The question becomes if these guys will want to hold out for a starting job, or are willing to backup a rising star like Watson.
3. Cornerback
Once considered a strength in Houston, the cornerback play has declined sharply in the last year. In hindsight, it was clearly a mistake to move on from A.J. Bouye and instead keep Jonathan Joseph, who is likely on his way out now. There was much belief that Kevin Johnson was ready to take a big step forward and become a No. 1 corner. If anything, he took a step back last season and injury concerns are mounting with him. Kareem Jackson no longer looks like a guy you can trust in coverage. Malcolm Butler is the top free agent cornerback in this class, but will likely come with a massive price tag. There are cheaper alternatives though, such as E.J. Gaines, Darqueze Dennard, Kyle Fuller and Trumaine Johnson. It would make sense for the Texans to bring in a free agent and invest a draft pick in cornerback. Another hole is strong safety, and they may look to shuffle around some bodies to fill that need as well.
2. Guard
Let’s just lay it out there. Xavier Sua-Filo was a complete bust as a second round draft pick. Jeff Allen has ben a complete bust as a free agent. The best offensive linemen that the Texans have right now are Nick Martin and Greg Mancz. Unfortunately they both play center. Martin has the versatility to fill one of the guard spots, but he has also missed more than half of the team’s games in his two years as a Texan. The best free agent guard available is Andrew Norwell, but like we discussed with Malcolm Butler earlier, that will come at a hefty price. Justin Pugh, who played last season at right tackle for the Giants, would benefit from a move back inside. Josh Sitton is 32 years old, but would be a massive upgrade and probably has 2-3 good years left in him. Guard, like corner, will need to be hit in free agency and the draft
1. Tackle
You probably guessed this when we were discussing the disastrous offensive line above. The Texans decision to move Duane Brown clearly wasn’t based solely on football, because they had no serviceable replacement in-house and the free agent market doesn’t have anyone better than him. Derek Newton is still recovering from his double patella tears, and it seems unlikely he will ever be the same. Unfortunately for the Texans, when teams have great tackles, they typically don’t let them get to free agency, so the cupboard is somewhat bare. Nate Solder is the biggest brand name, but he is 30 and not coming off his best year. Another free agent out of New England, Cameron Fleming, is appealing to me. He is only 26 and filled in nicely at right tackle for Marcus Cannon last season. Ja’Wuan James was the lone bright spot on a horrific line in Miami, and may be the best available tackle, but is better suited for the right side. Chris Hubbard has been the swing man in Pittsburgh and looks like he could handle a starter’s workload. There are also guys like Andre Smith and Greg Robinson, once highly thought of and now tossed aside, that could be looked at as reclamation projects.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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