CM Punk is on the UFC 225 card. Valerie Macon/Getty Images
UFC 225 is arguably the most interesting card of 2018 from top to bottom, assuming that it avoids a weigh-in day collapse like so many recent events. It features a little bit of everything, with a title fight, an interim title fight, heavyweight fights all but guaranteed to end in a knockout, former champions on the undercard, and even a pro wrestler.
The 185 lb. title is on the line in the main event, with Robert Whittaker defending his strap against Yoel Romero in a rematch of their closely contested matchup last year. Whittaker basically laid out the blueprint to beating Romero in their last fight. Stick, move, and don’t stand in front of him long enough for him to knock your head off. Romero was frustrated by Whittaker’s movement, and though he landed some pretty heavy shots, he was never able to land the fight ender that he used to lay waste to the rest of the middleweight division. Romero won’t go down easy, but he will have to dig into his bag of tricks to show the champion some different looks.
The co-main is an (unneccesary) interim title fight in the 170 lb. division for the right to fight Tyron Woodley later in the year. Rafael dos Anjos is a former lightweight champion who has yet to taste defeat since moving up to welterweight. He has built an incredible resume, with wins over Robbie Lawler, Donald Cerrone (twice), Neil Magny, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Tarec Saffiedine. Colby Covington has basically talked his way into this spot. He has won five straight fights, but his resume’ is not that of a title challenger. He is a wrestler who will look to make it a 25-minute grind-fest, which dos Anjos seems unlikely to fall victim to.
Rumors of Andrei Arlovski’s demise have been out there for years, and it seems like every fight he takes brings out the experts saying it will be his last. Tai Tuivasa has the power to make that come to be. The matchup is interesting because Arlovski, a former heavyweight champion, has beaten the odds in his last two fights after losing five straight. Tuivasa is a monster who has finished all seven of his fights without ever seeing a second round. Either Arlovski pulls off the big upset, or the experts may end up right, and Tuivasa could put a final hurting on Arlovski.
CM Punk (Phil Brooks) and Mike Jackson are probably the most unlikely duo to show up on a pay-per-view in recent history. Both fighters are 0-1, and both are admittedly more proven as entertainers than fighters, but it is at a minimum an intriguing fight. Jackson is an excellent boxer, but could struggle if the fight hits the ground. Punk is a bit of an unknown. He has been training for the last several years for this moment, and it all culminates here. Rarely do I have concerns of this, but considering the fight is in his hometown and it means a lot to the organization for him to succeed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Punk get a nod on the scorecards, even if he isn’t deserving.
The prelims are stacked, with Alistair Overeem taking on Curtis Blades, Charles Oliveira taking on Clay Guida, Joseph Benavidez facing Sergio Pettis and Ricardo Lamas taking on Mirsad Bektic. Former 205 lb. champion Rashad Evans will also fight on the prelims.
PREDICTIONS:
Whittaker def. Romero by DEC
Dos Anjos def. Covington by TKO
Anderson def. Holm by DEC
Tuivasa def. Arlovski by KO
Brooks def. Jackson by DEC
Overeem def. Blaydes by TKO
Gadelha def. Esparza by DEC
Bektic def. Lamas by TKO
Coulter def. De La Rocha by TKO
Smith def. Evans by KO
Benavidez def. Pettis by SUB
Oliveira def. Guida by SUB
Santiago def. Ice by SUB
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.