IN THE OCTAGON

A.J. Hoffman: UFC 225 preview

A.J. Hoffman: UFC 225 preview
CM Punk is on the UFC 225 card. Valerie Macon/Getty Images

UFC 225 is arguably the most interesting card of 2018 from top to bottom, assuming that it avoids a weigh-in day collapse like so many recent events. It features a little bit of everything, with a title fight, an interim title fight, heavyweight fights all but guaranteed to end in a knockout, former champions on the undercard, and even a pro wrestler. 

The 185 lb. title is on the line in the main event, with Robert Whittaker defending his strap against Yoel Romero in a rematch of their closely contested matchup last year. Whittaker basically laid out the blueprint to beating Romero in their last fight. Stick, move, and don’t stand in front of him long enough for him to knock your head off. Romero was frustrated by Whittaker’s movement, and though he landed some pretty heavy shots, he was never able to land the fight ender that he used to lay waste to the rest of the middleweight division. Romero won’t go down easy, but he will have to dig into his bag of tricks to show the champion some different looks. 

The co-main is an (unneccesary) interim title fight in the 170 lb. division for the right to fight Tyron Woodley later in the year. Rafael dos Anjos is a former lightweight champion who has yet to taste defeat since moving up to welterweight. He has built an incredible resume, with wins over Robbie Lawler, Donald Cerrone (twice), Neil Magny, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Tarec Saffiedine. Colby Covington has basically talked his way into this spot. He has won five straight fights, but his resume’ is not that of a title challenger. He is a wrestler who will look to make it a 25-minute grind-fest, which dos Anjos seems unlikely to fall victim to. 

Rumors of Andrei Arlovski’s demise have been out there for years, and it seems like every fight he takes brings out the experts saying it will be his last. Tai Tuivasa has the power to make that come to be. The matchup is interesting because Arlovski, a former heavyweight champion, has beaten the odds in his last two fights after losing five straight. Tuivasa is a monster who has finished all seven of his fights without ever seeing a second round. Either Arlovski pulls off the big upset, or the experts may end up right, and Tuivasa could put a final hurting on Arlovski. 

CM Punk (Phil Brooks) and Mike Jackson are probably the most unlikely duo to show up on a pay-per-view in recent history. Both fighters are 0-1, and both are admittedly more proven as entertainers than fighters, but it is at a minimum an intriguing fight. Jackson is an excellent boxer, but could struggle if the fight hits the ground. Punk is a bit of an unknown. He has been training for the last several years for this moment, and it all culminates here. Rarely do I have concerns of this, but considering the fight is in his hometown and it means a lot to the organization for him to succeed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Punk get a nod on the scorecards, even if he isn’t deserving. 

The prelims are stacked, with Alistair Overeem taking on Curtis Blades, Charles Oliveira taking on Clay Guida, Joseph Benavidez facing Sergio Pettis and Ricardo Lamas taking on Mirsad Bektic. Former 205 lb. champion Rashad Evans will also fight on the prelims. 

PREDICTIONS:

Whittaker def. Romero by DEC

Dos Anjos def. Covington by TKO

Anderson def. Holm by DEC

Tuivasa def. Arlovski by KO

Brooks def. Jackson by DEC

Overeem def. Blaydes by TKO

Gadelha def. Esparza by DEC

Bektic def. Lamas by TKO

Coulter def. De La Rocha by TKO

Smith def. Evans by KO

Benavidez def. Pettis by SUB

Oliveira def. Guida by SUB

Santiago def. Ice by SUB

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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