THE PALLILOG

What Alex Bregman's departure really signals for the Astros' future

Astros Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
Can the Astros overcome the loss of Bregman? Composite Getty Image.

So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.

Reminders...

Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.

It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.

For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.

Who's on third?

Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.

There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.

Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!

New beginnings

Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!

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Hunter Brown takes the mound for Houston Tuesday night. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros will look to even their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday night at Daikin Park, with ace-in-the-making Hunter Brown taking the mound.

The Astros (55-36) dropped the series opener 7-5 on Monday, snapping a stretch that saw them win six of their last eight games. But they'll have their best arm on the hill in Brown, who enters with a 9-3 record, a sparkling 1.82 ERA, and a microscopic 0.90 WHIP. The right-hander has been the definition of dominant this season, striking out 126 batters and giving Houston a clear edge in any matchup he starts.

Cleveland (41-48) will counter with Joey Cantillo, who has impressed in limited action. The lefty owns a 3.41 ERA and will face a Houston lineup that has been red-hot, batting .298 over the last 10 games and piling up runs behind contributions from Victor Caratini, Cam Smith, and Jose Altuve.

Despite Monday’s setback, the Astros are still 32-15 at home and boast a 43-13 record when outhitting their opponent. Cleveland, meanwhile, has lost nine of its last 10 and is hitting just .187 over that span — though Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan remain threats to change a game with one swing.

TOP PERFORMERS: Jake Meyers has 15 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 21 RBIs for the Astros. Meyers is dealing with a calf issue and was out of the lineup for Game 1 versus the Guardians.

Caratini is 10 for 38 with two doubles and four home runs over the past 10 games.

Tuesday marks the fifth meeting between the two clubs this season, with the series tied 2-2. With Brown on the mound and the offense continuing to click, Houston will try to reclaim control and keep pace atop the American League.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -211, Guardians +173; over/under is 7 runs.

Lineup breakdown

Here's an early look at Houston's lineup for Game 2. Spots 1-6 are the same as Game 1, except Cooper Hummel is playing left field, with Altuve in the DH spot. Mauricio Dubon is hitting seventh and playing second base, with Zack Short (SS) hitting eighth, followed by Taylor Trammell batting ninth and playing center field. Jake Meyers is out of the lineup again with a calf issue.



 

  Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot


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