Photo byJerry Markland/Getty Images.
Finally, after months of waiting the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the historic Darlington Raceway for the Real Heroes 400. This comes as a huge relief for fans not just of NASCAR but fans of sports in general. Come Sunday, there will be a lot of eyes on NASCAR that weren't there before so this could be huge for the sport. While it will be great to get cars back on the racetrack, the routine that we are used to seeing will be fairly different.
On Sunday, the drivers will drive into Darlington Speedway and be given a coronavirus test at the motorhome lot before the race. The spotters will not be where they are usually as well as they will all be spread out around the frontstretch bleachers. The biggest change of note will be the omission of practice and qualifying. The way that field will be set is by a draw of the top 12 in NASCAR's owner points.
The drawing was held live on Thursday and Brad Keselowski will lead the field to the green flag with Alex Bowman starting alongside him. There will also be a race on Wednesday as well with the field being set with how the first race finished including an inversion moving the 20th place finisher of the race on Sunday to the top of the grid. This will probably bring more attention to the 20th place finisher than ever before and I look forward to seeing how guys strategize to be the driver who is inverted.
In a time when everything is fluid, the world of NASCAR is no exception to this as they have completely revamped their 2020 schedule. Over the course of the next two months, the teams will be going to the tracks that are in the closest proximity to their shops in North Carolina. We will be seeing races at Darlington, Charlotte, Bristol, Martinsville, Talladega, and Homestead-Miami (Dale Earnhardt Jr will be making an appearance in the Xfinity race here). All without fans of course.
While this will be vastly different from what we are accustomed to, just watching a race will be a breath of fresh air and a good escape for the fans. One thing that will be awesome to watch is how tracks like Talladega or Homestead will react to the heat of the summer. It should be extremely slick and difficult for drivers to manage their tires, not to mention the fact that all of these drivers haven't been behind the wheel of a racecar in two months. It will be a lot of fun to see where this goes.
This week at Darlington, the driver to watch out for will have to be Matt Kenseth. After the suspension of Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi and his crew stunned the NASCAR world by tapping 2003 NASCAR Winston Cup Champion Matt Kenseth to take his place. Kenseth had been away from racing since 2018 but because of his expertise and close relationship with former and now current teammate Kurt Busch, the team decided that the Wisconsin native would be the perfect fit.
Overall, there aren't many other drivers that could bring the amount of experience and feedback that he can, so I think this is a great decision to bring him on board. He is coming to a track that hasn't been so kind to him. In his twenty-five races here, his average finish is 15.80. He does have a win here though back in 2013 when he drove for Joe Gibbs. It will be interesting to watch and see how he rebounds.
The driver that I have going to victory lane this week is Martin Truex Jr. Before all of this hit back in March, MTJ was the driver that I predicted would win at Atlanta and while this is a much different race track, I still believe that Truex will be the driver to beat. Over the last two races here, the 2017 champion has hit a bit of a rough patch as both finishes have been outside the top ten but this week, I think he will return to the success we were used to seeing back from 2016 to 2018. Look for the New Jersey native to take the checkered flag.
While sports are scarce right now, I understand that there is a possibility of new fans coming to the sport. There maybe some people that are reading this article that aren't too familiar with the sport and for all of those people, I say thank you for giving this a chance in such tough times. At a track like Darlington, you won't be disappointed. If you are interested in what goes on behind the scenes, NASCAR's website will be giving free scanner access all throughout the next two months that allow fans to listen to what the drivers are saying to their crew-chiefs. When it is all said and done, I believe that this race will go down as one of the most important races in sports history. You won't want to miss this one.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats)
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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