In search of winners
Analysis and plays for Friday's and Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita
Oct 31, 2019, 3:30 pm
In search of winners
Santa Anita Park
The Breeders' Cup races will be Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. It should be an entertaining two days. There are only a few races I really like; due to work commitments and the World Series I have not been able to dive in as deeply as usual. However, I will throw a few opinions out on each race.
These are all pretty wide open. Keep in mind there are a lot of evenly matched horses, so shopping for prices is critical. So that is the approach we are taking:
A'Ali is an intriguing European runner who will be a solid price (6-1 morning line). He has had only one bad start at a slightly longer distance. Europeans tend to have an edge in turf races, and this guy is worth a play across the board or maybe an exacta wheel up and down with the field.
Probably a pass race. No. 12 Arizona will be the favorite and looks pretty tough. There might be more value in No. 13 Fort Myers, who finished just behind the favorite at Ascot in June. Might be worth a weighted wager, with more to show and place than win. Something like $10 to win, $20 to place and $40 to show.
Another I will likely be passing on. If you must play it, maybe take No. 4 British Idiom, but the price will likely not be good enough to warrant a play.
The Europeans should have this one covered. I like the idea of keying No. 3 Shadn (10-1) first and second with all the other Euros in the exactas - 1-5-6-8-9-14.
No. 5 Scabbard offers the best value after a troubled second against the favorite, No. 1 Dennis' Moment last time out. No. 9 Maxfield will take a lot of action as well. Could easily come down to the 1 and 9, but 8-1 on the 5 is too juicy to pass on.
The main event, with some really competitive races featuring some of the best horses in the world in the latter part of the card.
I like No. 4 Come Dancing, but the price will be pretty short, although Covfefe will take the bulk of the money. We are going to key the 4 first and second in the exactas and tris with 1-3-8-9 as we will go closer heavy in a speed-dominated race.
Pretty much throwing darts at a board here. I do like the 1 horse at 5-1 and might look at a 1-all all-1 exacta play.
Omaha Beach will be the heavy favorite off a nice win over the surface at a distance shorter than he wanted to go against an excellent sprinter. Hard to get around him, but I will throw in the 1-2-4-7-8 in boxed exactas and tris and hope for the best.
I like No. 9 Villa Marina quite a bit in here. Her only off the board finish of her career came at a much longer distance and she still was only beaten two lengths. Will play her across the board, and will also use her in exactas first and second with 1-2-3-4-7-8-12.
Mitole will be favored, but we will take a shot against him. The only time he was in a race with a sub-22 opening quarter, he faded in the lane. Shancelot all but guarantees that fraction. The key horses will be a pair of long shot closers, No. 2 Hog Creek Hustle and No. 7 Whitmore, who appears to be rounding back into form and tends to show up in big spots. So the exactas would be 2-7 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-9.
Another I have very little clue on. Lucallan across the board is worth a play but not worth a big investment.
Midnight Bisou, who ran at Sam Houston earlier this year, has been a win machine in 2019 with seven wins in seven starts. She will be tough here, but this field is loaded. Would throw her in exacta and trifecta boxes with 3-5-6-9-11.
Bricks and Mortar (9) is the favorite and has five wins in five starts this year, but this might be longer than he wants to go. The 5 and 10 horses might be viable alternatives, but don't expect much value. Probably pass on this one.
No. 11 Code of Honor has been in sharp form and always fires his shot. No. 8 McKinzie is the favorite and has never been worse than second in seven starts at Santa Anita. Hard to get past those two, but if you toss in long shots Owendale (3) and Yoshida (5) you might get a price. I will also key the 11 first and second in the try with 3-5-8 with all in third, and 3-5-8 with 11 with all.
Tari Eason scored a career-high 30 points to lead the Houston Rockets to an easy 133-96 win over the Dallas Mavericks Friday night.
Jalen Green added 23 points with nine rebounds, despite sitting the entire fourth quarter to help the Rockets to their fifth straight win, tying their longest such streak of the season.
Houston led by double digits most of the night and was up by 16 in the third quarter before scoring the next seven points, with a 3 from Eason, to make it 80-57 midway through the quarter.
The Rockets were up by 21 later in the third before using a 10-0 run to push the lead to 96-65 near the end of the period, and most of their starters didn't play in the fourth.
Brandon Williams scored 25 points off the bench for the Mavericks as they lost for the seventh time in eight games. Klay Thompson was 2 of 16 for five points with nine rebounds.
Mavericks: Dallas continues to struggle with most of its top players out with injuries and lost another one Friday with coach Jason Kidd saying that Dante Exum sustained a broken left hand that will likely end his season.
Rockets: Houston has taken advantage of a schedule with six straight home games, going 4-0 so far on the homestand as it tries to climb the Western Conference standings.
Houston was in control of the game from the start but put it out of reach with its 37-point third quarter.
The Rockets had 29 second-chance points to just two by Dallas on a night Houston had a 17-6 advantage in offensive rebounds.
Houston hosts Chicago on Saturday night and Dallas hosts Philadelphia on Sunday.