In search of winners
Analysis and plays for Friday's and Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita
Oct 31, 2019, 3:30 pm
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Santa Anita Park
The Breeders' Cup races will be Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. It should be an entertaining two days. There are only a few races I really like; due to work commitments and the World Series I have not been able to dive in as deeply as usual. However, I will throw a few opinions out on each race.
Friday's races
These are all pretty wide open. Keep in mind there are a lot of evenly matched horses, so shopping for prices is critical. So that is the approach we are taking:
Race 5, BC Juvenile Turf Sprint
A'Ali is an intriguing European runner who will be a solid price (6-1 morning line). He has had only one bad start at a slightly longer distance. Europeans tend to have an edge in turf races, and this guy is worth a play across the board or maybe an exacta wheel up and down with the field.
Race 6, BC Juvenile Turf
Probably a pass race. No. 12 Arizona will be the favorite and looks pretty tough. There might be more value in No. 13 Fort Myers, who finished just behind the favorite at Ascot in June. Might be worth a weighted wager, with more to show and place than win. Something like $10 to win, $20 to place and $40 to show.
Race 7, BC Juvenile Fillies
Another I will likely be passing on. If you must play it, maybe take No. 4 British Idiom, but the price will likely not be good enough to warrant a play.
Race 8, BC Juvenile Filly Turf
The Europeans should have this one covered. I like the idea of keying No. 3 Shadn (10-1) first and second with all the other Euros in the exactas - 1-5-6-8-9-14.
Race 9, BC Juvenile
No. 5 Scabbard offers the best value after a troubled second against the favorite, No. 1 Dennis' Moment last time out. No. 9 Maxfield will take a lot of action as well. Could easily come down to the 1 and 9, but 8-1 on the 5 is too juicy to pass on.
Saturday's races
The main event, with some really competitive races featuring some of the best horses in the world in the latter part of the card.
Race 4, BC Filly Mare Sprint
I like No. 4 Come Dancing, but the price will be pretty short, although Covfefe will take the bulk of the money. We are going to key the 4 first and second in the exactas and tris with 1-3-8-9 as we will go closer heavy in a speed-dominated race.
Race 5, BC Turf Sprint
Pretty much throwing darts at a board here. I do like the 1 horse at 5-1 and might look at a 1-all all-1 exacta play.
Race 6, BC Dirt Mile
Omaha Beach will be the heavy favorite off a nice win over the surface at a distance shorter than he wanted to go against an excellent sprinter. Hard to get around him, but I will throw in the 1-2-4-7-8 in boxed exactas and tris and hope for the best.
Race 7, BC Filly/Mare Turf
I like No. 9 Villa Marina quite a bit in here. Her only off the board finish of her career came at a much longer distance and she still was only beaten two lengths. Will play her across the board, and will also use her in exactas first and second with 1-2-3-4-7-8-12.
Race 8, BC Sprint
Mitole will be favored, but we will take a shot against him. The only time he was in a race with a sub-22 opening quarter, he faded in the lane. Shancelot all but guarantees that fraction. The key horses will be a pair of long shot closers, No. 2 Hog Creek Hustle and No. 7 Whitmore, who appears to be rounding back into form and tends to show up in big spots. So the exactas would be 2-7 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-9.
Race 9, BC Mile
Another I have very little clue on. Lucallan across the board is worth a play but not worth a big investment.
Race 10, BC Distaff
Midnight Bisou, who ran at Sam Houston earlier this year, has been a win machine in 2019 with seven wins in seven starts. She will be tough here, but this field is loaded. Would throw her in exacta and trifecta boxes with 3-5-6-9-11.
Race 11, BC Turf
Bricks and Mortar (9) is the favorite and has five wins in five starts this year, but this might be longer than he wants to go. The 5 and 10 horses might be viable alternatives, but don't expect much value. Probably pass on this one.
Race 12, BC Classic
No. 11 Code of Honor has been in sharp form and always fires his shot. No. 8 McKinzie is the favorite and has never been worse than second in seven starts at Santa Anita. Hard to get past those two, but if you toss in long shots Owendale (3) and Yoshida (5) you might get a price. I will also key the 11 first and second in the try with 3-5-8 with all in third, and 3-5-8 with 11 with all.
Fernando Tatís Jr. hit a tiebreaking solo home run and scored all of San Diego’s runs as the Padres avoided being swept with a 3-2 win over the Houston Astros on Sunday night.
Tatís sent the first pitch he saw from Tayler Scott (1-2) 427 feet to straightaway center to give the Padres a 3-2 lead in the seventh.
Tatís scored from second on a Mauricio Dubón error in the first, and he led off the third with a triple before scoring on an RBI single by Gavin Sheets.
The Astros tied it with two runs in the fifth on an RBI single by Dubón and a Yordan Alvarez sacrifice fly.
Luis Arraez was carted off and taken to a hospital for evaluation after a first inning collision with Dubón on a play at first base. Arraez’s face appeared to collide with Dubón’s arm or elbow, and the Padres designated hitter lay motionless in foul territory next to first base for several minutes.
After being tended to by trainers from both teams, Arraez was placed on a backboard and carted out of the stadium.
Dylan Cease yielded two runs on six hits with six strikeouts in five innings for the Padres. Alek Jacob (1-0) pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the win, and Robert Suarez pitched the ninth for his second save.
Starting pitcher Framber Valdez surrendered two runs on seven hits in six innings for the Astros.
Key moment
With two outs and the tying run on second in the eighth, Jason Adam struck out Victor Caratini to end the inning.
Key stat
The Padres have scored 20 runs in the seventh inning this season, the most runs they have scored in any inning.
Up next
Houston RHP Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA) starts the opener of a three-game series against the Blue Jays on Monday night, while San Diego RHP Randy Vásquez (1-1, 1.74) starts Monday in the opener of a three-game series in Detroit.