In search of winners
Analysis and plays for Friday's and Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita
Oct 31, 2019, 3:30 pm
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Santa Anita Park
The Breeders' Cup races will be Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. It should be an entertaining two days. There are only a few races I really like; due to work commitments and the World Series I have not been able to dive in as deeply as usual. However, I will throw a few opinions out on each race.
Friday's races
These are all pretty wide open. Keep in mind there are a lot of evenly matched horses, so shopping for prices is critical. So that is the approach we are taking:
Race 5, BC Juvenile Turf Sprint
A'Ali is an intriguing European runner who will be a solid price (6-1 morning line). He has had only one bad start at a slightly longer distance. Europeans tend to have an edge in turf races, and this guy is worth a play across the board or maybe an exacta wheel up and down with the field.
Race 6, BC Juvenile Turf
Probably a pass race. No. 12 Arizona will be the favorite and looks pretty tough. There might be more value in No. 13 Fort Myers, who finished just behind the favorite at Ascot in June. Might be worth a weighted wager, with more to show and place than win. Something like $10 to win, $20 to place and $40 to show.
Race 7, BC Juvenile Fillies
Another I will likely be passing on. If you must play it, maybe take No. 4 British Idiom, but the price will likely not be good enough to warrant a play.
Race 8, BC Juvenile Filly Turf
The Europeans should have this one covered. I like the idea of keying No. 3 Shadn (10-1) first and second with all the other Euros in the exactas - 1-5-6-8-9-14.
Race 9, BC Juvenile
No. 5 Scabbard offers the best value after a troubled second against the favorite, No. 1 Dennis' Moment last time out. No. 9 Maxfield will take a lot of action as well. Could easily come down to the 1 and 9, but 8-1 on the 5 is too juicy to pass on.
Saturday's races
The main event, with some really competitive races featuring some of the best horses in the world in the latter part of the card.
Race 4, BC Filly Mare Sprint
I like No. 4 Come Dancing, but the price will be pretty short, although Covfefe will take the bulk of the money. We are going to key the 4 first and second in the exactas and tris with 1-3-8-9 as we will go closer heavy in a speed-dominated race.
Race 5, BC Turf Sprint
Pretty much throwing darts at a board here. I do like the 1 horse at 5-1 and might look at a 1-all all-1 exacta play.
Race 6, BC Dirt Mile
Omaha Beach will be the heavy favorite off a nice win over the surface at a distance shorter than he wanted to go against an excellent sprinter. Hard to get around him, but I will throw in the 1-2-4-7-8 in boxed exactas and tris and hope for the best.
Race 7, BC Filly/Mare Turf
I like No. 9 Villa Marina quite a bit in here. Her only off the board finish of her career came at a much longer distance and she still was only beaten two lengths. Will play her across the board, and will also use her in exactas first and second with 1-2-3-4-7-8-12.
Race 8, BC Sprint
Mitole will be favored, but we will take a shot against him. The only time he was in a race with a sub-22 opening quarter, he faded in the lane. Shancelot all but guarantees that fraction. The key horses will be a pair of long shot closers, No. 2 Hog Creek Hustle and No. 7 Whitmore, who appears to be rounding back into form and tends to show up in big spots. So the exactas would be 2-7 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-9.
Race 9, BC Mile
Another I have very little clue on. Lucallan across the board is worth a play but not worth a big investment.
Race 10, BC Distaff
Midnight Bisou, who ran at Sam Houston earlier this year, has been a win machine in 2019 with seven wins in seven starts. She will be tough here, but this field is loaded. Would throw her in exacta and trifecta boxes with 3-5-6-9-11.
Race 11, BC Turf
Bricks and Mortar (9) is the favorite and has five wins in five starts this year, but this might be longer than he wants to go. The 5 and 10 horses might be viable alternatives, but don't expect much value. Probably pass on this one.
Race 12, BC Classic
No. 11 Code of Honor has been in sharp form and always fires his shot. No. 8 McKinzie is the favorite and has never been worse than second in seven starts at Santa Anita. Hard to get past those two, but if you toss in long shots Owendale (3) and Yoshida (5) you might get a price. I will also key the 11 first and second in the try with 3-5-8 with all in third, and 3-5-8 with 11 with all.
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Apr 5, 2025, 11:08 pm
A week into the 2025 season, the Houston Astros are already giving fans plenty to talk about—and not all of it is bad. While the offense continues to sputter, particularly at the top of the order, the pitching staff is showing flashes of what could be a defining strength of the team. Let’s break down some early season observations following their latest series opening win against the Minnesota Twins.
Top of the lineup falling flat
The Astros’ biggest issue right now is at the plate. In the series opener against the Twins, the top three hitters in the lineup went a combined 0-for-12 with eight strikeouts. Jose Altuve, usually a stabilizing presence, struck out five times in that game, the first five-strikeout performance of his career. With Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman gone, there’s even less margin for error when stars like Yordan Alvarez go cold. His early-season slump has only magnified the absence of the team’s former offensive anchors.
Chas McCormick also looks completely out of sync at the plate, continuing a troubling trend from the opening series. Meanwhile, Cam Smith is struggling to stay competitive in at-bats, often falling behind in the count after watching fastballs go by for strikes.
One bright spot: Mauricio Dubón finally picked up his first hit of the season against the Twins, showing signs of life.
Hunter Brown is a dude
On the mound, however, Hunter Brown looks every bit like the breakout arm Houston needs. Despite a couple of mistakes—most notably a hanging breaking ball that Matt Wallner turned into a triple—Brown dominated overall. His two-seam fastball produced soft contact all day, with Twins hitters averaging just 62 mph exit velocity. Broken bats and routine grounders were the theme, and Brown even flashed some defensive flair with a slick bare-handed play to first.
Still, Brown can refine his pitch sequencing. Willi Castro jumped on a first-pitch changeup for a hit—an example of how Brown might be better served by establishing his elite velocity before mixing in off-speed.
Bullpen bright spots and smarter pitching
The bullpen continues to be a strength. Bryan King once again delivered a solid inning in relief, and Bryan Abreu made an important adjustment by leaning on his fastball early in his outing, throwing seven straight to start the inning. He has the velocity to overpower hitters and should continue trusting it.
New blood
Manager Joe Espada also made a smart call by starting Brendan Rodgers in cold conditions. Rodgers, with experience playing in Colorado’s thin air and chilly Aprils, responded with a key hit—albeit a bit of a lucky one, aided by a balk that brought the infield in. Still, his presence in the lineup could bring some much-needed consistency, and he deserves regular at-bats. His power was on display when he hit a clutch double, driving in Victor Caratini and extending Houston's lead against the Twins.
Other notes and areas to improve
- Christian Walker finally launched his first home run of the season after a rough game against the Giants. His struggles have largely come against curveballs, so it’s no surprise he found success against Joe Ryan, a pitcher who doesn’t feature one in his arsenal.
- Base stealing continues to be a glaring weakness defensively for the Astros. Opponents are taking extra bases far too easily—a problem that could become costly in close games if not addressed.
Big picture
Yes, the offense looks rough—and yes, there are real concerns about depth and consistency. But the early returns from the pitching staff, especially from Hunter Brown and the bullpen, offer reason for optimism. If the top of the lineup finds its rhythm and the Astros start cleaning up their defensive execution, this team still has the tools to win the AL West.
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