In search of winners
Analysis and plays for Friday's and Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita
Oct 31, 2019, 3:30 pm
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Santa Anita Park
The Breeders' Cup races will be Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. It should be an entertaining two days. There are only a few races I really like; due to work commitments and the World Series I have not been able to dive in as deeply as usual. However, I will throw a few opinions out on each race.
Friday's races
These are all pretty wide open. Keep in mind there are a lot of evenly matched horses, so shopping for prices is critical. So that is the approach we are taking:
Race 5, BC Juvenile Turf Sprint
A'Ali is an intriguing European runner who will be a solid price (6-1 morning line). He has had only one bad start at a slightly longer distance. Europeans tend to have an edge in turf races, and this guy is worth a play across the board or maybe an exacta wheel up and down with the field.
Race 6, BC Juvenile Turf
Probably a pass race. No. 12 Arizona will be the favorite and looks pretty tough. There might be more value in No. 13 Fort Myers, who finished just behind the favorite at Ascot in June. Might be worth a weighted wager, with more to show and place than win. Something like $10 to win, $20 to place and $40 to show.
Race 7, BC Juvenile Fillies
Another I will likely be passing on. If you must play it, maybe take No. 4 British Idiom, but the price will likely not be good enough to warrant a play.
Race 8, BC Juvenile Filly Turf
The Europeans should have this one covered. I like the idea of keying No. 3 Shadn (10-1) first and second with all the other Euros in the exactas - 1-5-6-8-9-14.
Race 9, BC Juvenile
No. 5 Scabbard offers the best value after a troubled second against the favorite, No. 1 Dennis' Moment last time out. No. 9 Maxfield will take a lot of action as well. Could easily come down to the 1 and 9, but 8-1 on the 5 is too juicy to pass on.
Saturday's races
The main event, with some really competitive races featuring some of the best horses in the world in the latter part of the card.
Race 4, BC Filly Mare Sprint
I like No. 4 Come Dancing, but the price will be pretty short, although Covfefe will take the bulk of the money. We are going to key the 4 first and second in the exactas and tris with 1-3-8-9 as we will go closer heavy in a speed-dominated race.
Race 5, BC Turf Sprint
Pretty much throwing darts at a board here. I do like the 1 horse at 5-1 and might look at a 1-all all-1 exacta play.
Race 6, BC Dirt Mile
Omaha Beach will be the heavy favorite off a nice win over the surface at a distance shorter than he wanted to go against an excellent sprinter. Hard to get around him, but I will throw in the 1-2-4-7-8 in boxed exactas and tris and hope for the best.
Race 7, BC Filly/Mare Turf
I like No. 9 Villa Marina quite a bit in here. Her only off the board finish of her career came at a much longer distance and she still was only beaten two lengths. Will play her across the board, and will also use her in exactas first and second with 1-2-3-4-7-8-12.
Race 8, BC Sprint
Mitole will be favored, but we will take a shot against him. The only time he was in a race with a sub-22 opening quarter, he faded in the lane. Shancelot all but guarantees that fraction. The key horses will be a pair of long shot closers, No. 2 Hog Creek Hustle and No. 7 Whitmore, who appears to be rounding back into form and tends to show up in big spots. So the exactas would be 2-7 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-9.
Race 9, BC Mile
Another I have very little clue on. Lucallan across the board is worth a play but not worth a big investment.
Race 10, BC Distaff
Midnight Bisou, who ran at Sam Houston earlier this year, has been a win machine in 2019 with seven wins in seven starts. She will be tough here, but this field is loaded. Would throw her in exacta and trifecta boxes with 3-5-6-9-11.
Race 11, BC Turf
Bricks and Mortar (9) is the favorite and has five wins in five starts this year, but this might be longer than he wants to go. The 5 and 10 horses might be viable alternatives, but don't expect much value. Probably pass on this one.
Race 12, BC Classic
No. 11 Code of Honor has been in sharp form and always fires his shot. No. 8 McKinzie is the favorite and has never been worse than second in seven starts at Santa Anita. Hard to get past those two, but if you toss in long shots Owendale (3) and Yoshida (5) you might get a price. I will also key the 11 first and second in the try with 3-5-8 with all in third, and 3-5-8 with 11 with all.
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Cal Raleigh becomes the first catcher, switch-hitter to win the Home Run Derby. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images.
Cal Raleigh approached the All-Star Home Run Derby like a day on the lawn. Dad was on the mound and baby brother was behind the plate.
Only this time, there were tens of thousands looking on at Truist Park and a $1 million prize.
“It goes all the way back to him coming home and me forcing him to throw me a ball and hit it in the backyard or in the house or something probably shouldn’t be doing,” a beaming Cal said, flanked by Todd and Todd Jr. after defeating Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero 18-15 in the final round Monday night.
Todd Raleigh, former coach of Tennessee and Western Carolina, threw the pitches and Cal’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Raleigh Jr., did the catching. A first-time All-Star at age 28, Cal became the first switch-hitter and first catcher to win the title. He’s the second Mariners player to take the title after three-time winner Ken Griffey Jr., who was on the field, snapping photos.
“Anybody that’s ever played baseball as a kid dreams of stuff like this,” Cal’s dad said. “I dreamed of it. He dreamed of it. When you’re a parent, you look at it differently because you want your kids to be happy.”
Leading the major leagues with 38 home runs at the All-Star break, Cal almost didn’t make it past the first round. The Mariners’ breakout slugger nicknamed Big Dumper and the Athletics’ Brent Rooker each hit 17 homers, and Raleigh advanced on a tiebreaker for longest long ball: 470.61 feet to 470.53 — or 0.96 inches. At first, Cal wasn’t aware whether there would be a swing-off.
“An inch off, and I’m not even in the final four, which is amazing,” Cal said. “So I guess I got lucky there. One extra biscuit.”
Raleigh totaled 54 homers. He won his semifinal 19-13 over Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz, whose 513-foot first-round drive over the right-center field seats was the longest of the night.
Cal Raleigh's #HRDerby by the numbers:
Total HR: 54
HR of 425+: 31
Top distance: 471 ft
Avg distance: 430 ft
Total distance: 23,212 ft
Top exit velo: 112 MPH
Avg exit velo: 102 MPH pic.twitter.com/0pV6nGWLsA
— MLB (@MLB) July 15, 2025
Cal’s brother, nicknamed T, kept yelling encouragement to the brother he so admires.
“His swag, the way he plays, the way he hustles,” T said.
Hitting second in the final round, the 22-year-old Caminero closed within three dingers — MLB counted one that a fan outfielder caught with an over-the-wall grab. Using a multicolored bat and down to his last out, Caminero took three pitches and hit a liner to left.
“I didn’t think I was going to hit as many home runs or make it to the finals,” Caminero said through a translator.
Cal was just the second Derby switch-hitter after Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman in 2023. His dad was a righty and wanted both his sons to hit from both sides.
“Did it from the first day, when he was in diapers, literally,” Todd Sr. said. “I would take that big ball and he had a big red bat. I’d throw it slow and he’d hit it. Then I’d say stay there, pick him up, turn him around, switch his hands and do it again. I was a catcher. I played a little bit, and I just knew what a premium it was. I didn’t want either one of my boys to ever say, am I right-handed or left-handed?”
There was a downside.
“I don’t recommend it if you have two kids, they’re both switch hitters, if you want to save your arm, because that’s a lot of throwing,” said dad, who had rotator cuff surgery.
Raleigh hit his first eight homers left-handed, took a timeout, then hit seven right-handed. Going back to lefty, he hit two more in the bonus round and stayed lefty for the rest of the night.
“Was grooving a little bit more lefty so we were like, since we have a chance to win, we might as well stick to the side that’s working a little better,” Cal said.
Caminero beat Minnesota’s Byron Buxton 8-7 in the other semifinal. Atlanta’s Matt Olson, Washington’s James Wood, the New York Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Rooker were eliminated in the first round of the annual power show.
Cruz’s long drive was the hardest-hit at 118 mph.
Wood hit 16 homers, including one that landed on the roof of the Chop House behind the right-field wall. Olson, disappointing his hometown fans, did not go deep on his first nine swings and finished with 15, Chisholm hit just three homers, the fewest since the timer format started in 2015.fter it was all over, the Raleighs headed out. Stephanie, the boys’ mom and Todd Sr.'s wife, is surrounded by baseball.
After it was all over, the Raleighs headed out. Stephanie, the boys’ mom and Todd Sr.'s wife, is surrounded by baseball.
“We kind of leave it in the cage. We’ve got a cage at home, a building,” Todd Sr. said. “Or we leave it in the car on the rides home. There’s probably been a few times where she says, yeah, that’s enough.”