Falcon Points
Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Nov 5, 2020, 8:30 am
Falcon Points
Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).
Good luck.
RACE 6 - BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.
Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.
Confidence level: 2.
RACE 7 - BC JUVENILE TURF
European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.
Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.
Confidence level: 4.
RACE 8 - BC JUVENILE FILLIES
Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 9 - BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF
This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.
Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 10 - BC JUVENILE
Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.
Confidence level: 4.
The Houston Astros announced on Monday that additional imaging has revealed that Jeremy Peña is dealing with a small fracture in one of his ribs.
Peña left Friday's game after being hit by a pitch in the ribs. The club originally believed they had avoided any fractures or breaks, but new information has informed them otherwise.
Update on Jeremy Peña: pic.twitter.com/jfCsCUKWFx
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 30, 2025
Peña is heading to the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 28. This news comes at an unfortunate time, with Jeremy posting the best regular season numbers of his career. He's currently slashing .322, .378, .489 with an .867 OPS.
Peña will miss the Rockies and Dodgers series at a minimum.
Story on Peña headed to the IL with quotes from Dana Brown.
“This isn’t one of those things where you have to be sidelined the whole time. Once the inflammation goes down, he might feel good enough to swing a bat.” https://t.co/ih2G09Jpcf
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) June 30, 2025
Let's hope the team doesn't rush him back too soon and create an even bigger problem. These quotes above from Dana Brown have me concerned. Playing through injuries can create bad habits, and Jeremy has clearly found his swing this season.