Falcon Points
Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Nov 5, 2020, 8:30 am
Photo by Getty Images.
Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).
Good luck.
RACE 6 - BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.
Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.
Confidence level: 2.
RACE 7 - BC JUVENILE TURF
European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.
Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.
Confidence level: 4.
RACE 8 - BC JUVENILE FILLIES
Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 9 - BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF
This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.
Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 10 - BC JUVENILE
Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.
Confidence level: 4.
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Mar 31, 2025, 10:30 pm
Coming off the opening series win over the Mets, there's a lot for the Astros to be excited about. The starting pitching led the way in all three games, and Houston's high-leverage relievers delivered when it mattered most.
Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader closed the door on the Mets in games 1 and 3. Bryan King has also looked impressive, and it appears he'll be counted on in the seventh inning to hand the lead to Abreu and then Hader.
If Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski can deliver consistent performances similar to the other starters, the Astros will have one of the most feared rotations in baseball.
Plus, more help could be on the way with Lance McCullers making another step in his rehab pitching for Sugar Land over the weekend.
As good as the pitching has been, there are some legitimate concerns about the offense. Their struggles to hit with runners in scoring position in 2024 are still an issue through the first series of 2025.
Newcomers Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have yet to do much with the bat, and the only extra-base hits this season (2) have come from Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez.
As far as the learning curve in the outfield, Jose Altuve and Cam Smith are off to a decent start. And despite the shakeup at second base, the team is still getting zero production from Mauricio Dubon and Brendan Rodgers.
It appears Joe Espada's plan in the Mets series was to get everyone some playing time, which seems like a smart strategy early in the season. However, the game plan didn't pay off on Saturday, with Zach Dezenzo, Victor Caratini, and Dubon combining for zero hits.
Polarizing bats
Finally, how are we feeling about the Torpedo bats sweeping the league?
While the Yankees aren't the only team with players sporting these new sticks, their results have been the talk of MLB with the Bronx Bombers mashing 15 dingers over just three games.
With the Astros sitting at one homer on the season, why not give them a try? One thing is for sure, don't be surprised if players opt to use these new bats to break out of a slump at some point this season.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday live right after the game. Click here to catch!
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