Falcon Points
Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Nov 5, 2020, 8:30 am
Photo by Getty Images.
Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).
Good luck.
RACE 6 - BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.
Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.
Confidence level: 2.
RACE 7 - BC JUVENILE TURF
European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.
Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.
Confidence level: 4.
RACE 8 - BC JUVENILE FILLIES
Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 9 - BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF
This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.
Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 10 - BC JUVENILE
Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.
Confidence level: 4.
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After dropping a frustrating series to the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros find themselves in a familiar position—searching for answers, but still within striking distance. Despite their inconsistency, Houston sits just three games behind the AL West-leading Mariners, who are currently 7 games over .500 and riding an 8-2 stretch. For as up-and-down as the Astros have been, the division remains tantalizingly close.
That inconsistency was on full display throughout the White Sox series. Jake Meyers and Zach Dezenzo each played the roles of both hero and heartbreaker. Dezenzo launched a massive home run in Game 3, a moment that energized the dugout and briefly shifted momentum. But his costly defensive error later in the game flipped the script. Meyers was a spark plug in Houston’s lone win, delivering a clutch performance at the plate, only to run the team out of a rally in the finale when he was picked off second—right before Jeremy Peña ripped what would have been an RBI single.
Jose Altuve’s struggles are quietly becoming more worrisome. He’s recorded just one multi-hit game since April 19 and has only one homer since April 8. On Sunday, he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had grinded through a 33-pitch inning—a decision that raised questions about his awareness in a veteran moment. Should manager Joe Espada have reminded Altuve of the situation? Or is this on Altuve, who should have known what to do as one of the team leaders?
Signs of life
There are flickers of life from the bats. Last week, Houston's team OPS was an underwhelming .667 (23rd in MLB), with a slugging percentage of .357 (25th). They've nudged those numbers up to .684 (19th) and .370 (21st), respectively. It’s modest progress, but enough to suggest this offense might be trending in the right direction. Still, their 5-5 record over the last 10 games feels emblematic of who they are right now—a .500 team with both talent and flaws.
Looking ahead
The upcoming schedule could be a turning point. Three of the next five opponents have losing records, and none of them are elite. This stretch offers a prime opportunity for Houston to finally build momentum and close the gap in the division—assuming the Mariners cool off from their current tear, which seems inevitable given their unsustainable 8-2 pace.
McCullers is officially back!
Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022 and, despite being limited to 3.2 innings due to command issues (three walks and a hit batter), there were encouraging signs. His velocity was there, and the stuff looked sharp. It’s a start, and perhaps a step toward stabilizing a rotation that still needs length.
Steering the ship
Manager Joe Espada, however, continues to draw scrutiny. His decision-making in the finale raised eyebrows again. Giving Isaac Paredes a day off when Yordan Alvarez was already sitting left the lineup depleted. Rather than using promising young infielder/outfielder Cam Smith, he opted for Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers—a defensive combo that didn't inspire confidence. It feels at times like Espada isn’t prioritizing winning the final game of a series, a pattern that could haunt the team down the stretch.
The plot thickens
Meanwhile, Christian Walker’s slump is dragging on. He went 0-for-5 twice in the last two series and looks out of sync at the plate. The Astros need more from their power hitters if they hope to make a real run. And with Alvarez now heading to the IL with hand inflammation, runs will be even harder to come by.
All told, this team still feels like one hovering just above or below .500. But in a division that remains wide open, the path forward is clear: play better, hope the Mariners come back to earth, and capitalize on a soft schedule. The race is far from over—but it’s time for Houston to start acting like contenders.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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