Falcon Points
Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Nov 5, 2020, 8:30 am
Photo by Getty Images.
Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).
Good luck.
RACE 6 - BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.
Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.
Confidence level: 2.
RACE 7 - BC JUVENILE TURF
European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.
Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.
Confidence level: 4.
RACE 8 - BC JUVENILE FILLIES
Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 9 - BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF
This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.
Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 10 - BC JUVENILE
Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.
Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.
Confidence level: 4.
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Takeaways from the Astros’ series win over the Orioles
The bats carried the Astros to a series win over the Orioles. Houston scored 7, 10, and 9 runs in the first three games — and they needed every bit of that production to hold off a scrappy Baltimore team that kept fighting back. It was a sharp contrast from their previous series against Detroit, when the Astros managed only two runs across three games.
Over the past seven days, Houston’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack, ranking 12th in runs scored and 22nd in OPS, while the pitching staff has struggled with a 5.19 ERA, 24th in MLB.
Offense heating up
Carlos Correa has led the way during this stretch, hitting .370 with a .901 OPS. He’s been far from alone, though. Jesús Sánchez (.368 AVG, 1.032 OPS), Victor Caratini (.976 OPS), Yainer Díaz (.304 AVG, .820 OPS), and Christian Walker (.276 AVG, .921 OPS) have all delivered at the plate. The collective surge has been timely, giving the Astros’ rotation and bullpen some much-needed margin for error.
Can the bullpen hold up?
That margin might not last if the bullpen wears down. Bryan Abreu has been excellent, but his workload is becoming a concern. With Bennett Sousa landing on the IL with elbow discomfort, depth is thinner than ever. Houston hopes Craig Kimbrel — added from the Rangers’ minor league system — can provide another leverage arm. His debut was encouraging: no runs, two strikeouts.
Still, inconsistency looms. Cristian Javier continues to struggle with command. Javier recorded 10 walks over his 9.2 innings in his rehab starts with Sugar Land. Unfortunately, those control issues have followed him back to the big leagues. McCullers is dealing with the same issues, walking five batters in just four innings in his most recent start.
Walks have not only led to quick rallies, but also forced the bullpen to absorb heavy innings when starters can’t work deep. Javier's latest start against Baltimore was a prime example: spotted a five-run lead in the first, he immediately walked the first two batters and gave the runs right back in the first two innings. Then the bullpen had to cover the final seven frames. AJ Blubaugh really came through for the club, delivering four innings.
Patience with Javier
There may be a silver lining. Javier looked sharp in his first outing back from Tommy John surgery, and perhaps expectations were set too high too quickly. Manager Joe Espada has urged patience, reminding that bumps were always likely during the recovery process. The key for Javier — and for Lance McCullers, will be consistently throwing strikes.
MLB realignment thoughts
On a different note, realignment has been a popular topic this week. Personally, I like the Astros in the American League, where rivalries with the Yankees and Red Sox have added juice. The AL West isn’t the toughest division, which benefits Houston, though the late-night West Coast trips remain a grind. If a shift happens, it’ll come with trade-offs, but for now the AL feels like the right home.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!
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