Falcon Points

Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland

Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Photo by Getty Images.

Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).

Good luck.

RACE 6 - BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.

Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.

Confidence level: 2.

RACE 7 - BC JUVENILE TURF

European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.

Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.

Confidence level: 4.

RACE 8 - BC JUVENILE FILLIES

Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.

Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.

Confidence level: 3.

RACE 9 - BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF

This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.

Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.

Confidence level: 5.

RACE 10 - BC JUVENILE

Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.

Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.

Confidence level: 4.


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How will Soto's massive contract impact the Astros?Composite Getty Image.

Over the weekend, the big domino finally fell with Juan Soto agreeing to a 15-year, $765 million megadeal with the New York Mets. Which means Alex Bregman and the other top free agents on the market should soon follow in short order.

In fact, we're already seeing reports from Rob Bradford of WEEI and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale claiming that the Red Sox and Yankees are “expected” to make a run at Bregman.

Soto heading to the National League certainly feels like a win for Astros fans, but that could change if missing out on Soto causes the Yankees to pry Breggy away from Houston.

We'll have to wait and see how this plays out before we get too excited. However, one thing is for sure, all the free agents on the market have to be thrilled about the size of Soto's deal. Not to mention Willy Adames' 7-year, $182 million deal with the Giants that could help Bregman's chances of receiving a more lucrative deal than the Astros reportedly offered him, 6- years, $154 million.

What's really eye-opening about Soto's contract is how it could impact Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker, specifically Tucker. It's hard to imagine Tucker won't get an offer of at least $300 million, and at this point $400 million wouldn't surprise us.

Historically, the Astros don't trade their big name free agents before their contracts expire, but perhaps they should rethink that approach with King Tuck. If they won't even entertain a deal approaching $300 million, it might be worth taking a step back this year to replenish the farm system and focus on the team long-term.

Speaking of trades, the Astros are reportedly calling anyone who will listen about the availability of Ryan Pressly.

Don't miss the video above as we react to the Soto deal, share our thoughts on how it could impact the Astros championship window, and much more!

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