Falcon Points

Analysis and plays for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland

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Here is your betting guide for Friday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll. (Stay tuned for Saturday's plays coming soon. I like that card MUCH better).

Good luck.


This is an absolute crapshoot, but that is also where you can make some money. With 2-year-olds, inconsistency is a big part of their games. The 14 horse, Golden Pal, will be the favorite, but speed is his game and he will have tons of company battling for the early lead. We will take a flyer with No. 5 Cowan, a closer who has a second at this distance over this surface.

Possible plays: 5-all, all-5 exactas, weighted show/place/win on the 5. I will also play small win/place/show bets on a couple European-based long shots, the 3 and the 6.

Confidence level: 2.


European-based runners tend to dominate most of the turf races, and this should be no exception. There are several Euro runners who could win this, but we will focus on No. 2 New Mandate at 12-1. He has won three in a row, has a nice stretch kick and will be rolling late. We will key him in exactas with the other Euros and two North American horses.

Possible plays: Exactas 2 with 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 and 1-5-6-7-9-11-12-13-14 with 2.

Confidence level: 4.


Will likely be passing on this one, as it is a short field and will be hard to get past the Bob Baffert favorite Princess Noor, who will probably fail a postface drug test, and the second choice Simply Ravishing. But we will also throw in a couple prices and hope for the best.

Possible plays: Exacta box 1-2-5-7, Trifecta box 1-2-5-7.

Confidence level: 3.


This might be a spot where the North American horses have an advantage; this is not the strongest group of Euros. Plum Ali has been dominant in all three starts and we will try to catch her in an exacta with a long shot.

Possible plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 and 2-3-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14 with 4.

Confidence level: 5.


Our first look at potential 2021 Derby horses (IF there is a 2021) and Jackie's Warrior will be a heavy favorite. But he has never been this far, will need the lead to win and will be pushed early by several others. All of that adds up to using long shot closers, which leads us to the 1, 6 and 9.

Possible plays: Exacta box 1-6-9. Exacta box 1-6-7-9. Exacts 1-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-7-9-13; 1-2-5-6-7-9-13 with 1-6-9.

Confidence level: 4.

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