FALCON POINTS
Analysis and plays for Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland
Nov 6, 2020, 8:30 am
Photo by Getty Images
Here is your betting guide for Saturday's Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland. I don't recommend playing them all, but we do provide potential plays for each race. We also provide a "confidence level" for each race, with 10 being the most confident and 1 the least. Ideally you save your biggest bankroll plays for the ones 5 and up. You can play these exactas for as little as a $1 increment, but play to your bankroll.
Good luck.
RACE 4 - BC FILLY/MARE SPRINT
Oft-drugged Gamine will be the heavy favorite here, and if she is on her game, she will be tough to beat. The distance suits her perfectly and she should be in front early. But we won't eat 7-5 on a horse that has a drug history. We will use her, but if she beats us, oh well. I like the rail horse turning back in distance, Speech, who came within a neck of beating Gamine at Oaklawn earlier this year and was a troubled fourth finishing just behind her in the Kentucky Oaks. A clean trip might do it.
Potential plays: Exactas 1 with 2-5-7-8-9; 2-5-7-8-9 with 1. Exacta box 1-2-8-9.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 5 - BC TURF SPRINT
Historically, we kill it in turf sprints, but this race has eluded us most years. We will keep this simple, with plays on No. 1 Big Runner, who might be on the lead early and will be tough to catch, and a Euro shipper, No. 6 Glass Slippers.
Potential plays: Win/place/show on 1 and 6.
Confidence level: 4.
RACE 6 - BC DIRT MILE
This is a nice, competitive race. I hate the post, but No. 12 Owendale is 1 for 1 on the track, 2 for 2 at the distance and has been chasing some of the best horses in America.
Potential plays: 12 with 1-4-5-6-7-9-10-11; 1-4-5-6-7-9-10-11 with 12.
Confidence level: 5. (Would be much higher if he was not stuck outside).
RACE 7 - BC FILLY/MARE TURF
Not getting cute here; I like a Euro at 20-1 in Terebellum, who has bee right there with some monsters in Europe. While most of her races have been shorter, her best came at a similar distance. There are a lot of solid contenders in here but hopefully we can get her home at a price.
Potential plays: Win/place/show on No. 7.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 8 - BC SPRINT
Historically one of our best races, and with the favorite Vekoma scratching earlier in the week, I like a price horse in No. 11 Diamond Ops, who won the prep for this over the surface, is 3-for-5 at the distance with one second, and rarely runs a bad race. The price is square at 8-1 and should be rolling late in this big field.
Potential plays: Win/place/show on No. 11. Exactas 11 with 1-2-3-6-7-8-9-10; 1-2-3-6-7-8-9-10 with 11.
Confidence level: 7.
RACE 9 - BC MILE
Admittedly do not have a great feel for this race, which should be dominated by Europeans. We will land on the consistent Kameko, who does her best running at this distance, but almost nothing would be a surprise in this one.
Potential plays: Win/place/show on No. 2; Exactas 2-all, all-2.
Confidence level: 3.
RACE 10 - BC DISTAFF
Going to be hard to get around Momomoy Girl, who has won 10 in a row, 12 of 14 overall and returned from a two-year layoff to go 3-0 this year. According to DRF, she has not finished behind a horse in three years and has beaten 100 of the 101 horses she has faced. Stranger things have happened, but hard to play against her. Will try to toss second choice Swiss Skydiver and find long shot value behind her in the exactas.
Potential plays: Exactas 10 with 4-7-8.
Confidence level: 5.
RACE 11 - BC TURF
This one is almost a lock for a European winner, and the two favorites look especially tough. Of the two, Magical is much more accomplished, a consistent Group I winner with 12 wins in 26 starts, all against top competition. You won't get much of a price, though. The other horse we will use in exotics as a long shot is Lord North, whose last race was a disaster but the prior effort was right behind Magical.
Potential plays: Weighted Win/place/show bet with more to show, the second most to place and the least amount to win on No. 6. Exactas 2 with 3-4-6-10, 3-4-6-10 with 2. Exacta box 2-6-10.
Confidence level: 6.
RACE 12 - BC CLASSIC
Bob Baffert appears to have a stranglehold on this race, with contenders Improbable, Maximum Security and Authentic. But my play in here is Tom's D'Etat, who has been one of the best in the country for a long time. Why are we getting 6-1? His last race he stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance, as Improbable went on to win that day. But he never gave up, was beaten less than three lengths and has been freshened since. In his last seven starts, his only two losses have come at Saratoga. He is 1 for 1 at Keeneland and should be in the hunt. Three-year-old sensation Tiz The Law should be a contender as well, but the 3-year-old crop is questionable, which makes him and Authentic question marks. Should be a hell of a race.
Potential plays: Exactas 4 with 2-3-6-8-9-10; 2-3-6-8-9-10 with 4. Trifectas 4-8 with 2-3-4-6-8-9-10 with 1-2-3-4-6-8-9-10.
Confidence level: 7.
Bonus pick 4 play: All with 10 with 2-6-10 with 4-8.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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