Every-Thing Sports
What makes for an upset like Ruiz over Joshua? Let's look at the factors
Jun 4, 2019, 6:41 am
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Score one for the fat guys! That was an Instagram post I made Sunday morning pertaining to Andy Ruiz Jr's upset knockout of heavyweight boxing champ Anthony Joshua. I watched a replay and highlights of the fight late Saturday night/wee hours Sunday morning.This was considered the third biggest upset in boxing history behind Hasim Rahman over Lennox Lewis and Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson. We love a good upset. Especially when the guy doing the upsetting kind of looks like one of us common folk.
One look at Ruiz and I guarantee you there were guys who immediately thought "if he can be the heavyweight champ, I can probably do the same thing!" Please, don't be THAT guy. Ruiz is a professional boxer who had a 33-1 record entering into this fight with Joshua. Whether he fought and beat 33 tomato cans, broom sticks, or some version of a weak opponent in those wins, he's still a pro boxer. There are several factors that go into the anatomy of an upset in my opinion, so let's take a look at them:
Perception
Perception heading into a matchup is a huge contributing factor. In this case, people looked at Ruiz and thought he looked like a Walmart greeter, a bus driver, a taco truck owner, etc. As spectators, we often look at guys' appearances. The first guy off the bus is a real thing. When you're a physical specimen, you attract more attention. People are drawn to the physically imposing figures that look like they're chiseled from granite as opposed to the Average Joes that look more like them because the former reminds them of a superhero and the latter reminds them of themselves.
Odds
The odds-makers have a huge part in upsets. They often set the betting odds in which upsets are named by because we have no other true measuring stick to judge them. Vegas isn't stupid. They set the odds in order to drive betting so they make money. So when you see a team or player or fighter is favored, please believe it's by design and through research. Casinos and bookmakers are in business for a reason.
Previous history
Previous history, or track record, is based upon the records of opponents coming into an event. Perception and odds also play a factor into this. For example, the 2003-04 Pistons finished two games better than the Lakers. The Pistons franchise had only won two NBA titles previously (back to back in the late 80s/early 90s), whereas the Lakers had 14 titles to that point and recently reeled off a three-peat a few years earlier. Given that the Lakers had Shaq, Kobe, Gary Payton, and Karl Malone, it was thought they'd run away with another title. The Pistons not only won the series, they beat the vaunted Lakers 4-1.
Superiority complex
When the perception that one team or athlete is so much better than their opponent, the odds are in their favor, and history says that team or athlete will most likely win, they can have an inflated sense of self. Taking an opponent likely or not seriously enough can lower a team or player's guard. This is a recipe for disaster. The 2001 Rams thought a backup quarterback couldn't beat "The Greatest Show on Turf." Little did we know that Super Bowl win by Tom Brady and the Patriots would give birth to a dynasty.
Disadvantages
There are also times in which an opponent is at a decided disadvantage. In college sports, one team may have a bigger budget in order to recruit, train, house, and even feed better players. Having better coaches and accommodations will give one team or player an advantage. Maybe there's a health issue involved. UCLA women's softball player Stevie Wisz has lived with a heart condition and put off surgery until after the Women's College World Series. Whatever the disadvantages are, they can often lead one team/player to believe they'll undoubtedly win, while stacking the odds heavily against said team/player's opponent.
Upsets are what gives us hope in sports. They're the improbable wins in which fan bases place their faith until they either win, or get their hopes crushed. We all love a good upset. The NCAA basketball tournament has shown us that an upset can galvanize a group of fans and onlookers into supporting the unlikely hero. Who doesn't enjoy the underdog beating the overwhelming favorite? No one likes the favorite who always wins. Sure, a dynasty is greatness to be admired, but the one who knocks off said dynasty will be celebrated just as much if not more. Once again, here's to all my fellow fat guys out there. Let's forego the gym and healthy food in favor of tacos and television in hopes of becoming the next Andy Ruiz Jr.
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Cal Raleigh becomes the first catcher, switch-hitter to win the Home Run Derby. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images.
Cal Raleigh approached the All-Star Home Run Derby like a day on the lawn. Dad was on the mound and baby brother was behind the plate.
Only this time, there were tens of thousands looking on at Truist Park and a $1 million prize.
“It goes all the way back to him coming home and me forcing him to throw me a ball and hit it in the backyard or in the house or something probably shouldn’t be doing,” a beaming Cal said, flanked by Todd and Todd Jr. after defeating Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero 18-15 in the final round Monday night.
Todd Raleigh, former coach of Tennessee and Western Carolina, threw the pitches and Cal’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Raleigh Jr., did the catching. A first-time All-Star at age 28, Cal became the first switch-hitter and first catcher to win the title. He’s the second Mariners player to take the title after three-time winner Ken Griffey Jr., who was on the field, snapping photos.
“Anybody that’s ever played baseball as a kid dreams of stuff like this,” Cal’s dad said. “I dreamed of it. He dreamed of it. When you’re a parent, you look at it differently because you want your kids to be happy.”
Leading the major leagues with 38 home runs at the All-Star break, Cal almost didn’t make it past the first round. The Mariners’ breakout slugger nicknamed Big Dumper and the Athletics’ Brent Rooker each hit 17 homers, and Raleigh advanced on a tiebreaker for longest long ball: 470.61 feet to 470.53 — or 0.96 inches. At first, Cal wasn’t aware whether there would be a swing-off.
“An inch off, and I’m not even in the final four, which is amazing,” Cal said. “So I guess I got lucky there. One extra biscuit.”
Raleigh totaled 54 homers. He won his semifinal 19-13 over Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz, whose 513-foot first-round drive over the right-center field seats was the longest of the night.
Cal Raleigh's #HRDerby by the numbers:
Total HR: 54
HR of 425+: 31
Top distance: 471 ft
Avg distance: 430 ft
Total distance: 23,212 ft
Top exit velo: 112 MPH
Avg exit velo: 102 MPH pic.twitter.com/0pV6nGWLsA
— MLB (@MLB) July 15, 2025
Cal’s brother, nicknamed T, kept yelling encouragement to the brother he so admires.
“His swag, the way he plays, the way he hustles,” T said.
Hitting second in the final round, the 22-year-old Caminero closed within three dingers — MLB counted one that a fan outfielder caught with an over-the-wall grab. Using a multicolored bat and down to his last out, Caminero took three pitches and hit a liner to left.
“I didn’t think I was going to hit as many home runs or make it to the finals,” Caminero said through a translator.
Cal was just the second Derby switch-hitter after Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman in 2023. His dad was a righty and wanted both his sons to hit from both sides.
“Did it from the first day, when he was in diapers, literally,” Todd Sr. said. “I would take that big ball and he had a big red bat. I’d throw it slow and he’d hit it. Then I’d say stay there, pick him up, turn him around, switch his hands and do it again. I was a catcher. I played a little bit, and I just knew what a premium it was. I didn’t want either one of my boys to ever say, am I right-handed or left-handed?”
There was a downside.
“I don’t recommend it if you have two kids, they’re both switch hitters, if you want to save your arm, because that’s a lot of throwing,” said dad, who had rotator cuff surgery.
Raleigh hit his first eight homers left-handed, took a timeout, then hit seven right-handed. Going back to lefty, he hit two more in the bonus round and stayed lefty for the rest of the night.
“Was grooving a little bit more lefty so we were like, since we have a chance to win, we might as well stick to the side that’s working a little better,” Cal said.
Caminero beat Minnesota’s Byron Buxton 8-7 in the other semifinal. Atlanta’s Matt Olson, Washington’s James Wood, the New York Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Rooker were eliminated in the first round of the annual power show.
Cruz’s long drive was the hardest-hit at 118 mph.
Wood hit 16 homers, including one that landed on the roof of the Chop House behind the right-field wall. Olson, disappointing his hometown fans, did not go deep on his first nine swings and finished with 15, Chisholm hit just three homers, the fewest since the timer format started in 2015.fter it was all over, the Raleighs headed out. Stephanie, the boys’ mom and Todd Sr.'s wife, is surrounded by baseball.
After it was all over, the Raleighs headed out. Stephanie, the boys’ mom and Todd Sr.'s wife, is surrounded by baseball.
“We kind of leave it in the cage. We’ve got a cage at home, a building,” Todd Sr. said. “Or we leave it in the car on the rides home. There’s probably been a few times where she says, yeah, that’s enough.”