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AP Top 25 Reality Check: SEC takeover could last a while
Sep 9, 2024, 3:33 pm
Alabama might be ranked a little high. Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images.
The Southeastern Conference has taken over The Associated Press college football poll, grabbing six of the first seven spots.
The 16-team SEC set a new standard for hoarding high AP Top 25 rankings, with Georgia at No. 1, No. 2 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Mississippi, No. 6 Missouri and No. 7 Tennessee. Half of the top 16 comes from the SEC.
How long will this last? Could be a while.
This week, Alabama takes a road trip to Wisconsin. The Crimson Tide is an early 15 1/2-point favorite, according to BetMGM. In the only matchup of ranked teams next Saturday, No. 24 Boston College is at Missouri and the Tigers are favored by 16 1/2.
Those look like the toughest non-conference games left for any of those six teams.
SEC conference play doesn't crank up for three weeks, though Week 4 does send Tennessee to new conference rival and No. 15 Oklahoma. The first matchup of those top six teams comes Week 5 and it's a biggie: Georgia at Alabama.
Some head-to-heads could could whittle that dandy half-dozen down, but more likely it will be up to the second- and third-tier SEC teams to provide a couple of upsets. That means Oklahoma, No. 16 LSU and others will need to step it up. Texas A&M and Auburn have already lost nonconference games at home. Mississippi State and Arkansas lost on the road this past weekend.
South Carolina beat up Kentucky, but that might have said more about the Wildcats than the Gamecocks. Vanderbilt is off to a good start.
For now, the upper tier of college football is the SEC's world and there is barely room for anybody else, at least according to AP poll voters. Reality Check has some thoughts.
No. 1 Georgia (2-0)
Next: at Kentucky, Saturday.
Reality check: The Bulldogs dusted off RB Trevor Etienne against Tennessee Tech after he was benched in the opener for an offseason traffic violation. The Florida transfer averaged a cool 15.6 yards on five carries.
Ranking: Just right.
No. 2 Texas (2-0)
Next: vs. UTSA, Saturday.
Reality check: You can see the progress in QB Quinn Ewers, especially when he throws on the move. The lack of tailback depth might force the Longhorns to lean a little harder on their star quarterback. He seems up for it.
Ranking: Just right.
No. 3 Ohio State (2-0)
Next: vs. Marshall, Sept. 21.
Reality check: The Buckeyes were locked on against Western Michigan, which was almost not fair to the Broncos.
Ranking: This is fine.
No. 4 Alabama (2-0)
Next: at Wisconsin, Saturday.
Reality check: Injuries along the offensive line had the Crimson Tide out of sorts for much of the game against USF before Alabama just had too many dudes for the Bulls. We'll see if that's a problem or one that goes away with better health.
Ranking: Little high.
No. 5 Mississippi (2-0)
Next: at Wake Forest, Saturday.
Reality check: You can only play who's on your schedule and so far the Rebels have done exactly what an elite team should do to that level of opponent.
Ranking: Little high.
No. 6 Missouri (2-0)
Next: vs. No. 24 Boston College, Saturday.
Reality check: Competition has been very light, but considering defense was the question mark coming into the season allowing a total of 254 yards in two games is an encouraging sign.
Ranking: Too high.
No. 7 Tennessee (2-0)
Next: vs. Kent State, Saturday.
Reality check: The Volunteers look like the undervalued stock among the SEC's best-ranked teams. The offensive and defensive lines are good enough to allow QB Nico Iamaleava (two interceptions against NC State) some growing pains.
Ranking: Too low.
No. 8 Penn State (2-0)
Next: vs. Kent State, Sept. 21.
Reality check: That's not a typo. Kent State, which opened the season at Pitt, plays Tennessee and Penn State back-to-back. This is the same team that just lost to FCS team St. Francis (Pa.) on Saturday. Kent State is getting $4 million from the three power conference schools. If any college football players deserve to be paid, it's the Golden Flashes.
Ranking: Touch low.
No. 9 Oregon (2-0)
Next: at Oregon State, Saturday.
Reality check: The interior of the Ducks' offensive line has been a problem, contributing to seven sacks allowed. Oregon allowed only five sacks all of last season. They are hoping the return of Indiana transfer OG Matthew Bedford from injury — whenever that happens — settles things down.
Ranking: Feels a little high, but Boise State is a handful.
No. 10 Miami (2-0)
Next: vs. Ball State, Saturday.
Reality check: USF looms in two weeks, a potential sneaky tricky nonconference game as Alabama has found out the past two years.
Ranking: Little low.
No. 11 Southern California (2-0)
Next: at Michigan, Sept. 21.
Reality check: The Trojans' shutout of Utah State was the first by a Lincoln Riley-coached team against an FBS opponent.
Ranking: About right.
No. 12 Utah (2-0)
Next: at Utah State, Saturday.
Reality check: The Utes pulled QB Cam Rising after he injured his hand with a big lead against Baylor. They say it's not serious and it better not be because Utah didn't score a point without him.
Ranking: Little high.
No. 13 Oklahoma State (2-0)
Next: at Tulsa, Saturday.
Reality check: There are no bad wins, especially against Power Four opponents, but the Cowboys' defense has not played well and now appear to be in danger of losing their best pass rusher, Collin Oliver (lower right leg injury), for a long period.
Ranking: Good for now.
No. 14 Kansas State (2-0)
Next: vs. No. 20 Arizona, Friday.
Reality check: The Wildcats' experienced secondary got lit up by Tulane. Now here comes Arizona All-American Tetairoa McMillan.
Ranking: Touch low.
No. 15 Oklahoma (2-0)
Next: vs. Tulane, Saturday.
Reality check: The Sooners are struggling to block and it's making life hard on former five-star QB Jackson Arnold. That performance against a rebuilding Houston team was worrisome.
Ranking: Too high.
No. 16 LSU (1-1)
Next: at South Carolina, Saturday.
Reality check: The running game is a problem and losing RB John Emery to another knee injury isn't helping the situation.
Ranking: This seems too high, but everybody in this group seems to be ranked too high.
No. 17 Michigan (1-1)
Next: vs. Arkansas State, Saturday.
Reality check: Quarterback issues will dominate headlines, but offensive line issues are what's really shocking for the Wolverines. Coach Sherrone Moore probably has a better chance of fixing the line.
Ranking: Too high.
No. 18 Notre Dame (1-1)
Next: at Purdue, Saturday.
Reality check: The NIU loss was certainly not all on QB Riley Leonard, but he really needs to be better.
Ranking: Too high.
No. 19 Louisville (2-0)
Next: vs. Georgia Tech, Saturday.
Reality check: The Cardinals have outscored two outmanned opponents by a combined 111-14. They're the ACC's Ole Miss.
Ranking: Maybe a little low.
No. 20 Arizona (2-0)
Next: at No. 14 Kansas State, Friday.
Reality check: The Wildcats have been called for 19 penalties in two games. They were especially problematic as Arizona slogged to a victory against Northern Arizona.
Ranking: Little high.
No. 21 Iowa State (2-0)
Next: vs. Arkansas State, Sept. 21.
Reality check: The Cyclones live in close games. Having a kicker like redshirt freshman Kyle Konrady, who can crush 54-yard field goals with the game on the line seems massive for coach Matt Campbell's team.
Ranking: Little low.
No. 22 Clemson (2-0)
Next: vs. NC State, Sept. 21.
Reality check: Maybe we overreacted about Clemson's offense after the Georgia game? Or maybe we're overreacting after a near-flawless performance against Appalachian State that included a 35-point first quarter? Guess we'll find out soon enough.
Ranking: Just right.
No. 23 Nebraska (2-0)
Next: vs. Northern Iowa, Saturday.
Reality check: The Cornhuskers still have details to clean up. Most notably 12 penalties against Colorado. But the offensive and defensive line improvement is encouraging and might be sustainable.
Ranking: The Huskers might be ranked prematurely, but somebody has to fill these spots.
No. 24 Boston College (2-0)
Next: at No. 6 Missouri, Saturday.
Reality check: The next test is a big step up, but new coach Bill O'Brien's Eagles have a solid offensive line and a dynamic quarterback. Is that enough to stay ranked?
Ranking: See Nebraska above.
No. 25 Northern Illinois (2-0)
Next: vs. Buffalo, Sept. 21.
Reality check: Coach Thomas Hammock has a tough team of mostly homegrown, developed and retained players. With an off week and a rebuilding Buffalo team after that, the Huskies could be in line for at least a three-week stay in the rankings.
Ranking: Maybe too low. How about that?
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There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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