When does it become a big deal?

As accusations continue to mount, how much leeway and goodwill does the 2017 World Series title buy the Astros?

Fred Faour
Nov 13, 2019, 1:57 pm
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Let's start off with the obvious: The latest Astros "scandal," an allegation of electronic sign stealing, is already being vastly overplayed in the media. The Astros aren't the only team to do it, and the original story even said it is widespread. But the Astros have become easy targets, because they are good on the field, and they have made themselves easy targets by continuing to find controversy.

Taken each individually, none of the incidents involving the team warrant the coverage they have gotten. But collectively, maybe it is time to stop giving them a pass.

Cheating is part of baseball's culture

First, however, some context. Make no mistake, teams have been looking for edges every year since baseball began. Spitballers are in the Hall of Fame. The sport turned a blind eye to steroid usage for years because it led to TV ratings and butts in the seats.

Corked bats. Scuffed balls. It has been there forever.

Stealing signs is part of the game and has been forever. Anything to get an edge. If you aren't protecting your signs? That's on you. Where the Astros got in trouble was using technology to do it, and while even that is up for debate, it does cross a line. Also, the "other teams are doing it" excuse rings hollow.

Does it taint the 2017 World Series? Of course not, no matter what you might read from bitter journalists. The trash can beating would have never worked in a playoff game. But when you keep adding everything up, it gets harder and harder to just dismiss all of the things the Astros have been accused of over the past few years. A look at some of the highlights or lowlights:

1) Where it all started

When the Astros were losing 100 games every year, no one cared. They were a cute story of a team blowing up everything and starting from scratch. When they started to win, they were the smartest guys in the room, guys who used analytics to gain an edge on other teams.

When you beat teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, however, you know there will be sour grapes. That's life. You punch the big boys in the mouth, you make enemies.

Everything started turning when the Astros acquired Roberto Osuna after his 75-game suspension for domestic violence with the Blue Jays ended in 2018. Most of Astros Twitter defended him.

The fan excuses: Nobody knows what happened between the two of them. The court cleared him. The Astros did their "Due Diligence." He deserves a second chance. No big deal.

The reality: It was a bad look, plain and simple, and a move they did not need to make. But hey, we gave them a pass because they are the lovable Astros.

2) Tyler/Trevor Bauer

In 2018, then-Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer implied Astros pitchers were doctoring balls. The infamous "spin rate."

The fan excuses: Dude is just bitter. The Astros are just good at improving pitchers. No big deal.

The reality: Probably sour grapes. But is it impossible they are doctoring balls?

3) The first sign stealing accusations

In the 2018 ALCS against the Red Sox, and Astros employee with a camera was investigated for alleged sign stealing. MLB cleared the Astros.

The fan excuses: They were cleared. Nothing to see here. No big deal.

The reality: Probably nothing to see here.

4) The Verlander issue

Earlier this season, the Astros refused to let a reporter into the locker room because of a beef with Justin Verlander.

The fan excuses: It's the reporter's fault. Verlander said he was unethical, so they had every right to keep him out. No big deal.

The reality: This was a bad look, no matter what kind of beef there was. And it was unnecessary. It also created a beef between the Astros and the media, which is never a good idea.

5) Whistle while you work

In this year's ALCS, Yankees players thought the Astros were signaling signs by whistling.

The fan excuse: This is dumb. How could you even hear whistles? No big deal.

The reality: Yeah, no big deal at all. Silly. Not worth even mentioning, but that's what happens when things start adding up.

6) The Assistant GM

In what became a circus, an Astros assistant GM's apparently drunken yelling at an SI Reporter led to his firing.

The fan excuse: The reporter made herself the story and it was way overblown. He was just drunk. No big deal.

The reality: Lying about it was the biggest problem. It could have been handled much better and maybe it would not have become a media bleep storm. But it was poorly handled. Again.

7) Forcing out the Ryans

The Astros reassigned Reid Ryan, replacing him with the owner's son. As a result, Nolan Ryan removed himself as a consultant.

The fan excuse: What did Nolan really do to help the team? If Jim Crane wants to start grooming his son, why not now? Reid Ryan got his job because of his father, too. No big deal.

The reality: Nolan is a local legend, beloved in the baseball community. Reid is a self-made businessman who did a great job for the Astros and was an ambassador for the team. He got everything he had on his own. Sure, if Crane wanted his son more involved, there's nothing wrong with that. But forcing out the Ryans was another bad look.

8) The Mike Fiers report

Finally, this week's news where former pitcher Mike Fiers said the Astros were using technology to steal signs in 2017. A Chicago White Sox pitcher confirmed it (forgiving the fact that on the at-bat in question, the pitcher got an out).

The fan reaction: They were better on the road than at home. It's not like they did it all the time. It did not impact the playoffs or World Series. Fiers is a punk. Where was all that sign stealing when they blew Game 7 against the Nationals? No big deal.

The reality: Fiers is indeed a rat. The lowest of the low. He should take a cue from Carlos Beltran, who is a stand-up guy. But the reality is they cheated. To what extent? Who knows. Did it make a difference? Maybe in a game or two. Did it win them a title? Not at all.

The bottom line

Taken individually, are any of these incidents that bad? (Well, the Osuna deal and the banned reporter, but that's up to the individual to judge). Throw in the Yuli Gurriel racist incident at the 2017 World Series, how players like Alex Bregman and Josh Reddick are hated by pretty much everyone that is not an Astros fan, and you can see why the rest of the world is piling on. It is the price of success; if this were the Cincinnati Reds, would anyone care?

Of course not.

But still, at what point do you quit dismissing these incidents as no big deal? At what point does it become a pattern? When do we stop excusing it? Winning a World Series covers up a lot of sins. That's always been the mindset; winning is all that matters. And the Astros have won.

But we have to ask, how much more good will does it buy them? It's not unlike a relationship, where the other person has given you the best times of your life. Then the cheating accusations start. But you ignore them, because, boy, you love that person. It's just talk, right? No big deal.

Until it becomes one.

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BREGMAN UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

A deep dive into Alex Bregman's mechanics reveals something interesting

Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

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