Astros history will never be the same

Assessing the fallout of the Astros' Black Monday

A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

Houston now has to find replacements for Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow

Black Monday is typically the name given to the day following the conclusion of the NFL's regular season, the day many teams announce the firings of head coaches as a result of disappointing performances. There is no equivalent of that in the MLB, as managers and members of a club's front office typically come and go sporadically throughout the year. Still, whether you agree with the events that transpired or not, Monday, January 13, 2020, will go down as a stain on the Houston Astros franchise.

MLB levies severe penalties

Many expected the MLB and its commissioner to send a message through their punishment of the Houston Astros once they completed their investigation into 2017 sign-stealing. Nonetheless, the reports that surfaced on Monday afternoon still sent shockwaves through the sport.

The penalties included 1-year suspensions of Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow, along with the loss of first and second-round draft picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, and a fine of $5 million, the most allowable in the sport's current constitution. The spectrum of reactions to the news was broad, ranging from being too harsh towards Houston to not being severe enough.

It came as no surprise, given Manfred's stance that he would hold a team's General Manager and Field Manager accountable for infractions of this kind, that he dealt the disciplines specifically to Luhnow and Hinch. It was a way to make a statement while avoiding the nearly impossible task of trying to narrow the scope of the investigation to individual players and the complexity that would come with trying to enforce those penalties.

Did Jim Crane act too hastily and harshly?

Shortly after the MLB announced commissioner Rob Manfred's statement and the subsequent actions, Astros owner Jim Crane called for a press conference to expand things further. He went several steps farther than the MLB, firing both Hinch and Luhnow for their lack of intervention into the scandal, which had the team in turmoil.

While Crane was rightfully displeased with his GM and Manager, completely severing ties with them was a drastic statement, especially considering the commissioner's report which concluded that neither directly took part in the sign-stealing, and in fact, had this to say about Hinch's involvement:

"Hinch neither devised the banging scheme nor participated in it. Hinch told my investigators that he did not support his players decoding signs using the monitor installed near the dugout and banging the trash can, and he believed that the conduct was both wrong and distracting. Hinch attempted to signal his disapproval of the scheme by physically damaging the monitor on two occasions, necessitating its replacement."

In regards to Luhnow, the investigation did not find any evidence that he directed or was involved in the team's cheating, and instead spoke to the mishandling of his GM duties:

"At least in my view, the baseball operations department's insular culture – one that valued and rewarded results over other considerations, combined with a staff of individuals who often lacked direction or sufficient oversight, led, at least in part, to the Brandon Taubman incident, the Club's admittedly inappropriate and inaccurate response to that incident, and finally, to an environment that allowed the conduct described in this report to have occurred."

You can read the full report here: Commissioner Rob Manfred's Report on Astros 2017 sign-stealing

Things escalated rapidly for the duo of Hinch and Luhnow, who went from learning about and starting to deal with an upcoming year of being suspended from their team to not having a team at all as Crane decided to clean house. It's no question that while the "it starts at the top" approach is valid, completely ending the tenures of two of the most influential members of franchise history is startling, to say the least.

Despite a lack of punishment, the rest of the team still has a burden to bear

Yet, although no current or former Astros players will receive formal discipline from the league, the damage has been done. Like it or not, the 2017 championship season has been disgraced. Whether it materially affected the outcome of the season is no matter, the league confirmed the cheating, and that will be enough to alter the story surrounding the year that brought the city of Houston it's first long-awaited World Series victory.

While we may never know the extent any specific player took part in the cheating, the league and its fans will now question the integrity of each player and judge them in the court of public opinion. The team formerly regarded as the feel-good story of 2017 by putting a city on their back after the wake of Hurricane Harvey will now be known as the team that cheated their way to a championship.

Still a strong group of players, but will start the season working uphill

While many will want to get back to baseball after these events, that may not be easy for the 2020 Astros. Not only will they have to find someone to be Manager and GM, but they will have to go up against potentially hyper-motivated opponents looking for revenge from years past.

Outside of the opposing players themselves, the Astros will also undoubtedly face harsh terrain in road stadiums, where fans will be vocal about their newfound opposition to the team. Does the roster have the ability to overcome that and still put together a strong season? Yes, but they now face uncharted territory as they assume their role as the new villains of the MLB, a role that few would have expected during the euphoric parade on the downtown streets of Houston a little over two years ago.

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The Texans square off with the Packers this Sunday! Composite Getty Image.

The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.

It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?

Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.

After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.

The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.

X-factors

The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.

If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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