ASTROS POSTSEASON OUTLOOK

3 critical questions the Astros face with difficult decisions looming

3 critical questions the Astros face with difficult decisions looming
Zack Greinke has some Astros fans worried. Composite image by Jack Brame.

With 13 games remaining in the 2021 regular season, the Houston Astros currently sit atop the American League West standings, six games ahead of the Oakland A's.

Their magic number to clinch the division is eight games, and baring some unforeseen circumstance that deviates them from this path, the Astros look to make the postseason for the 5th year in a row.

That being said, it's time to start asking questions about how this playoff roster will shape out when October rolls around.

1.) Who will be in the Astros' starting rotation?

A traditional playoff rotation usually consists of four starting pitchers. The answer may seem simple at first, but the final two spots may be up for grabs.

There is no doubt in my mind both Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez will be the number 1 and number 2 starters in this rotation respectively. McCullers is having a career year in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He has a 3-1 record with a 2.83 ERA over his last seven starts and has become the ace of this Astros' pitching staff. He is sure to start the first playoff game for Houston when the time comes.

Valdez started off the year red -hot and looked as if he could earn an All-Star nomination. He cooled off in June and July, but has bounced back again as of late. The 27-year-old has a 10-5 record with a 3.25 ERA and has consistently pitched five or more innings in every start since July 11th. He is a no-brainer to add to this playoff rotation as well.

That leaves two spots open among four potential candidates.

Had I been asked a month ago if Zack Greinke would make the playoff rotation, I would assume that question was intended to be satire.

For the majority of his career, Greinke has been nothing short of an ace, and has years of playoff experience as well. He started Game 7 of the 2019 World Series for the Astros (yes we all know how that went) and more recently was the winning pitcher for Game 4 of the 2020 ALCS against the Rays.

Over his last three starts, however, he has looked like a shell of himself. Greinke has given up a combined 18 runs over that span, and his ERA has ballooned from 3.66 to 4.11 this season.

Am I insinuating the 37-year-old will be left off the postseason roster? No chance.

But I am saying he will be the number 3 pitcher on this staff, which isn't a bad thing either.

Sure it's a far cry from being the ace of this rotation like everyone thought he would be coming into this season, but he can still be used efficiently in big games.

The former Cy Young Award winner will have two more starts before the postseason begins to improve his stats and gear up for another Astros playoff run.

The final spot in the rotation will be decided between Jake Odorizzi, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia.

Odorizzi is still on the injured list with a foot injury, and therefore could be left off by default. Although he could be used as a long inning relief arm similar to Joe Musgrove and Brad Peacock's role in 2017 when he returns from the IL.

So that leaves Garcia and Urquidy and I think this spot will come down to health.

Garcia has been a mainstay in this rotation since he made his 2021 debut start on April 5th. In his first full major league season, Garcia is 11-7 with a 3.37 ERA. The 24-year-old started the season as a spot starter and filled in when needed, but pitched his way into becoming an everyday starter for this Astros' rotation.

Urquidy on the other hand has missed about two months of the season with right shoulder discomfort, but returned on September 3rd. He has made three starts and has only pitched past the 5th inning once since his IL stint. It is safe to say he is still trying to return to form as the season is coming to an end.

In my opinion, I would go with Luis Garcia to be the fourth starter on this playoff rotation due to the fact he is healthier and has been consistent this season on the mound.

Urquidy and Odorizzi can be used out of the bullpen if needed in addition to Cristian Javier for long relief appearances. There is one thing a team can never have too much of, and that's pitching depth.

2.) Hey Siri… Can Jose make the playoff roster?

Astros' outfielder Jose Siri has jumped onto the scene since being called up from AAA Sugar Land.

In 11 games, the 26-year-old outfielder has a slash line of .450/.500/.900 with three home runs and seven RBI.

As great as Siri has been, I don't think there is room on this roster for an additional outfielder this postseason.

The Astros already have Michael Brantley, Jake Meyers, Kyle Tucker as their starting outfielders with Chas McCormick filling in as the fourth man of this group. It would be hard to envision a scenario in which he could make a roster spot baring an injury of course.

Siri has shown he can be productive in the big leagues, but his time will come in 2022.

3.) What will the Astros' playoff roster ultimately look like?

Once the postseason gets started, teams must reduce their roster size back down to 26 players on their staff.

I'll get the easy ones out of the way.

Infield:

  • Jose Altuve
  • Carlos Correa
  • Alex Bregman
  • Yuli Gurriel
  • Aledmys Diaz

Outfield:

  • Michael Brantley*
  • Jake Meyers
  • Kyle Tucker
  • Chas McCormick
  • Yordan Alvarez

Catcher:

  • Martin Maldonado
  • Jason Castro

Pitcher

  • Lance McCullers Jr.
  • Framber Valdez
  • Zack Greinke
  • Luis Garcia
  • Jose Urquidy
  • Jake Odorizzi*
  • Cristian Javier
  • Ryne Stanek
  • Ryan Pressly
  • Kendall Graveman

*once they return from the injured list

These 22 players are sure to make the postseason roster barring any unforeseen circumstances.

The final four spots on the roster would go to bullpen arms, and maybe one more player to come off the bench.

Even though these two have been inconsistent at times this season, I would give Blake Tayler and Brooks Raley spots due to the fact they are left-handed pitchers and can be used in situations to get certain batters out.

For the final two spots, I would give one of them to Phil Maton over Yimi Garcia due to his stellar performance since being acquired at the trade deadline.

This may surprise some people, but I would give Marwin Gonzalez the final spot due to his postseason experience. He has been to the postseason three times with the Astros already, and would be a great locker room presence during this playoff run. Plus, it's always a good idea to have someone who can play multiple positions just in case, in addition to Aledmys Diaz.

There could be other surprises, but ultimately, I see this being the most likely 2021 MLB Postseason roster for the Houston Astros.

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Will Joe Mixon be the difference in the game? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.

Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.

Series record: Texans lead 8-3.

Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.

Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).

Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).

Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).

Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).

Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.

Dolphins player to watch

QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.

Texans player to watch

QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.

Key matchup

Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.

Key injuries

Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.

Series notes

Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.

Stats and stuff

Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Fantasy tip

Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.

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