ASTROS POSTSEASON OUTLOOK
3 critical questions the Astros face with difficult decisions looming
Sep 20, 2021, 6:06 pm
ASTROS POSTSEASON OUTLOOK
With 13 games remaining in the 2021 regular season, the Houston Astros currently sit atop the American League West standings, six games ahead of the Oakland A's.
Their magic number to clinch the division is eight games, and baring some unforeseen circumstance that deviates them from this path, the Astros look to make the postseason for the 5th year in a row.
That being said, it's time to start asking questions about how this playoff roster will shape out when October rolls around.
1.) Who will be in the Astros' starting rotation?
A traditional playoff rotation usually consists of four starting pitchers. The answer may seem simple at first, but the final two spots may be up for grabs.
There is no doubt in my mind both Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez will be the number 1 and number 2 starters in this rotation respectively. McCullers is having a career year in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He has a 3-1 record with a 2.83 ERA over his last seven starts and has become the ace of this Astros' pitching staff. He is sure to start the first playoff game for Houston when the time comes.
Valdez started off the year red -hot and looked as if he could earn an All-Star nomination. He cooled off in June and July, but has bounced back again as of late. The 27-year-old has a 10-5 record with a 3.25 ERA and has consistently pitched five or more innings in every start since July 11th. He is a no-brainer to add to this playoff rotation as well.
That leaves two spots open among four potential candidates.
Had I been asked a month ago if Zack Greinke would make the playoff rotation, I would assume that question was intended to be satire.
For the majority of his career, Greinke has been nothing short of an ace, and has years of playoff experience as well. He started Game 7 of the 2019 World Series for the Astros (yes we all know how that went) and more recently was the winning pitcher for Game 4 of the 2020 ALCS against the Rays.
Over his last three starts, however, he has looked like a shell of himself. Greinke has given up a combined 18 runs over that span, and his ERA has ballooned from 3.66 to 4.11 this season.
Am I insinuating the 37-year-old will be left off the postseason roster? No chance.
But I am saying he will be the number 3 pitcher on this staff, which isn't a bad thing either.
Sure it's a far cry from being the ace of this rotation like everyone thought he would be coming into this season, but he can still be used efficiently in big games.
The former Cy Young Award winner will have two more starts before the postseason begins to improve his stats and gear up for another Astros playoff run.
The final spot in the rotation will be decided between Jake Odorizzi, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia.
Odorizzi is still on the injured list with a foot injury, and therefore could be left off by default. Although he could be used as a long inning relief arm similar to Joe Musgrove and Brad Peacock's role in 2017 when he returns from the IL.
So that leaves Garcia and Urquidy and I think this spot will come down to health.
Garcia has been a mainstay in this rotation since he made his 2021 debut start on April 5th. In his first full major league season, Garcia is 11-7 with a 3.37 ERA. The 24-year-old started the season as a spot starter and filled in when needed, but pitched his way into becoming an everyday starter for this Astros' rotation.
Urquidy on the other hand has missed about two months of the season with right shoulder discomfort, but returned on September 3rd. He has made three starts and has only pitched past the 5th inning once since his IL stint. It is safe to say he is still trying to return to form as the season is coming to an end.
In my opinion, I would go with Luis Garcia to be the fourth starter on this playoff rotation due to the fact he is healthier and has been consistent this season on the mound.
Urquidy and Odorizzi can be used out of the bullpen if needed in addition to Cristian Javier for long relief appearances. There is one thing a team can never have too much of, and that's pitching depth.
2.) Hey Siri… Can Jose make the playoff roster?
Astros' outfielder Jose Siri has jumped onto the scene since being called up from AAA Sugar Land.
In 11 games, the 26-year-old outfielder has a slash line of .450/.500/.900 with three home runs and seven RBI.
As great as Siri has been, I don't think there is room on this roster for an additional outfielder this postseason.
The Astros already have Michael Brantley, Jake Meyers, Kyle Tucker as their starting outfielders with Chas McCormick filling in as the fourth man of this group. It would be hard to envision a scenario in which he could make a roster spot baring an injury of course.
Siri has shown he can be productive in the big leagues, but his time will come in 2022.
3.) What will the Astros' playoff roster ultimately look like?
Once the postseason gets started, teams must reduce their roster size back down to 26 players on their staff.
I'll get the easy ones out of the way.
Infield:
Outfield:
Catcher:
Pitcher
*once they return from the injured list
These 22 players are sure to make the postseason roster barring any unforeseen circumstances.
The final four spots on the roster would go to bullpen arms, and maybe one more player to come off the bench.
Even though these two have been inconsistent at times this season, I would give Blake Tayler and Brooks Raley spots due to the fact they are left-handed pitchers and can be used in situations to get certain batters out.
For the final two spots, I would give one of them to Phil Maton over Yimi Garcia due to his stellar performance since being acquired at the trade deadline.
This may surprise some people, but I would give Marwin Gonzalez the final spot due to his postseason experience. He has been to the postseason three times with the Astros already, and would be a great locker room presence during this playoff run. Plus, it's always a good idea to have someone who can play multiple positions just in case, in addition to Aledmys Diaz.
There could be other surprises, but ultimately, I see this being the most likely 2021 MLB Postseason roster for the Houston Astros.
The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both enter Week 5 with identical records, looking to continue their strong early-season performances. The Texans, led by breakout quarterback C.J. Stroud, come off a thrilling 24-20 win over Jacksonville, while the Bills are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing 35-10 loss to Baltimore.
Bet MGM NFL Odds: Bills favored by 1
Against the Spread: Buffalo 2-2, Houston 0-3-1
Series Record: Texans lead 6-5
Last Meeting: Bills defeated Texans 40-0 (Oct. 3, 2021)
Texans WR Nico Collins:
Collins has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL this season, leading the league with 489 receiving yards. Coming off a career-best performance with 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville, Collins will be a key target for Stroud against Buffalo’s strong secondary.
Bills DE A.J. Epenesa:
With Von Miller suspended, Epenesa will be expected to step up as Buffalo’s primary pass rusher. Epenesa has one sack through four starts and needs to take on a larger role with the absence of Miller, who leads the NFL's active players in sacks.
Texans WR Stefon Diggs vs. Former Team:
Diggs, who was traded to the Texans in the offseason, will face his former team for the first time. He has been productive for Houston, logging 233 yards and two receiving touchdowns this season, as well as his first career rushing touchdown last week.
The Bills face multiple injury concerns, including linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp, all of whom are questionable. Buffalo's leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out. The Texans could see the return of WR Tank Dell after he missed last week, though RB Joe Mixon is not expected to play. LT Laremy Tunsil is questionable, which could impact their offensive game plan.
Update: Aaron Wilson has the latest on which Texans players are practicing on Friday.
#Texans Joe Mixon remains out of practice and not expected to play Sunday against #Bills Dameon Pierce returns, Tytus Howard sidelined @KPRC2 https://t.co/DR0IKzAC7C
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2024
Bills Offense:
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in scoring but has been inconsistent, as seen in their 10-point showing against the Ravens last week. Josh Allen, while turnover-prone in the past, is on a four-game streak without throwing an interception.
Texans Defense:
Houston’s defense has been a standout, ranking fifth overall and excelling against the pass, which could be key against the Bills' passing attack. However, their 40 penalties this season have been a major issue, and they'll need more discipline to keep pace with Buffalo.
Texans Offense:
Houston's passing game has been stellar, with Stroud leading the Texans to the 8th-best offense overall and the 3rd-ranked passing attack. This will be a critical factor against Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 6th against the pass.
Look for Nico Collins to continue his dominant streak as Stroud’s top target. Collins has over 80 receiving yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This matchup pits a strong Texans passing game against a resilient Bills defense. Buffalo holds the slight edge in the spread, and with both teams vying for a crucial win, this should be a hard-fought contest.
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ChatGPT contributed to this content.