POST-SEASON PREDICTIONS
Here's a sneak peek at what the Astros post-season roster could look like
Oct 1, 2021, 11:51 am
Look for Jose Siri to make the roster. Composite image by Jack Brame.
correa-bregman-siri
With the Astros clinching the AL West division title for the fourth time in the last five seasons, it's time to try and predict what the Astros' postseason roster will look like.
It will be the first time in MLB history that the playoff roster will be 26 players deep. MLB added an extra roster spot before the 2020 season, but due to COVID, allowed 28 men on the playoff rosters a year ago.
There are four big questions when piecing together the projected playoff roster…
1. How many pitchers will the Astros carry?
With the Division Series playing a maximum of five games in seven days, teams could decide to carry less pitchers than what they would in the League Championship Series or World Series, which plays a maximum of seven games in nine days. With that said, I believe the Astros will carry 13 position players and 13 pitchers.
2. Will the Astros carry a third catcher?
This is something I was advocating for when rosters expanded in September, especially with Martin Maldonado being an offensive liability that the Astros pinch hit for late in close games. Garrett Stubbs doesn't seem to be an option for Dusty Baker or James Click though. He's had chances this season, the most recent with Jason Castro's IL stint, but currently the Astros aren't carrying a third catcher with a 28 man roster. I don't see the Astros carrying a third catcher this postseason.
3. Jose Siri or Marwin Gonzalez?
The 13th position player comes down to the exciting, speedy outfielder Jose Siri or the veteran utility man Marwin Gonzalez. With Michael Brantley's knee a concern, and the possibility he may not be ready to play the outfield soon, Baker ultimately decides that Siri is more likely to be used as a pinch runner or a defensive replacement for Yordan Alvarez.
4. Cristian Javier, Phil Maton, Blake Taylor
With two spots on the Astros ALDS pitching staff up for grabs, Javier, Maton and Taylor seem to be the last three in the conversation. Based on Baker's old school mentality of wanting to match up righties against righties and lefties against lefties late in the game, you have to figure Dusty will want as balanced a bullpen as possible. Taylor gives Baker a second lefty on the staff, which is something he will covet. Maton, who has reverse splits, has far better numbers against lefties than Javier does, and Baker has used Maton in more high leverage spots down the stretch while Javier has fallen out of favor. With Greinke and Odorizzi moving to the bullpen in the playoffs, Javier is the odd man out.
C – Martin Maldonado
C – Jason Castro
1B – Yuli Gurriel
2B – Jose Altuve
3B – Alex Bregman
SS – Carlos Correa
LF – Yordan Alvarez
CF – Chas McCormick
RF – Kyle Tucker
DH – Michael Brantley
UT – Aledmys Diaz
OF – Jake Meyers
OF – Jose Siri
SP – Lance McCullers
SP – Framber Valdez
SP – Jose Urquidy
SP – Luis Garcia
RHP – Ryan Pressly
RHP – Kendall Graveman
RHP - Ryne Stanek
RHP – Yimi Garcia
RHP – Phil Maton
RHP – Jake Odorizzi
RHP – Zack Greinke
LHP – Brooks Raley
LHP – Blake Taylor
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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