THE PALLILOG
Here's why now is the time for Astros to get creative with their No. 1 starter
Sep 24, 2021, 11:23 am
Lance McCullers is the clear choice to go in game one. Composite image by Jack Brame.
3 important areas where Astros transformed a weakness into a strength
So, so, lame of the Texans' franchise that the roof was closed at NRG Stadium Thursday night. 75 degrees, low humidity, not a cloud in the sky. Lamer than their offense in a 24-9 loss to Carolina that went largely as expected. I suppose we could imagine how ugly it would have been had the roof been open and the noise generated by 15 to 20 thousand empty seats not been deafening.
The Texans look like a decent expansion team, which is sad considering this is season number 20. The 2002 expansion Texans had an awful offense. That squad averaged 213 yards per game. Against the Panthers the Texans mustered 193 yards. Despite the puny output, quarterback Davis Mills certainly shouldn't be condemned as a bust. He should be in over his head right now. Mills never played a full season of games at Stanford. He's supposed to excel early as a rookie in a season where he was only projected to play once Operation Tank was further along?
Two games in a row, weak game management decision from David Culley. Down 7-6 in the third quarter, fourth and four at the Carolina 39-yard line, Culley opts to take a delay of game penalty and then punt. Even with a weak offense, going for the fourth and four in opponent territory was the call to make.
Give Culley some credit for having the Texans playing hard through three games. Though truly that's nice for a pee wee team where the players can be rewarded with pizza and ice cream. Meanwhile Deshaun Watson keeps collecting about $600,000 per week, and the Texans keep listing him as out for "non-injury reason."
Next week at Buffalo the Texans would seem to have chances of the slim and none variety.
Astros in driver's seat
The Astros can clinch their fourth American League West title in five years as soon as Saturday night. They have essentially secured homefield advantage for their American League Division Series. All that's left is can they catch the Rays for homefield advantage should there be an Astros-Rays American League Championship Series rematch. While the Astros likely formally put the A's to sleep this weekend, the Rays play three versus the Marlins. Then it's the Rays at Minute Maid Park for three. The Astros are three games behind Tampa Bay with nine to play. It's extremely unlikely the Astros catch the Rays without beating them at least two out of three at MMP. Winning two out of three would give the Astros the season series tiebreaker over them.
It's approaching decision time for the Astros' postseason starting rotation. Lance McCullers is the clear choice to go in game one. Of some concern is how to slot McCullers next week to give him the best chance at being in peak form for that series opener. Having pitched Thursday night, McCullers starts one of the Rays series games, either Tuesday or Wednesday. The Astros have an off day Monday. McCullers on normal four days rest would mean he goes Tuesday, but then would either go nine days without game action before the postseason opener, or maybe get a brief outing on three days rest a week from Saturday to get back to normal four days rest before the ALDS start. A third seemingly less prudent option would be starting the season finale for a shortened outing on four days rest, but then he'd only have three days rest before ALDS G1. Given McCullers's injury history and career high innings workload this season, it's not a trivial thought process.
Luis Garcia has a 2.19 earned run average at home this season, 4.24 everywhere else. Garcia at home in game two makes sense, with Framber Valdez and either Jose Urquidy or Zack Greinke for a prospective game four, back around to McCullers should there be a decisive fifth game. If he is to get the ball Greinke really needs to show something in his remaining couple starts. Between time in the COVID and safety protocols and some lousy pitching, Greinke hasn't made a good start in more than a month.
College
Texas A&M-Arkansas is very interesting Saturday at Jerry Jones's place in Arlington. The Aggies have beaten the Razorbacks the last nine years and are favored by five and a half points to make it 10, but the Hogs may be poised to halt that streak shy of double digits. The A&M offense looks shaky. The quarterback edge going in clearly belongs to Arkansas with dual threat K.J. Jefferson. A couple of weeks ago the Razorbacks humiliated the Texas Longhorns. The last season in which Arkansas beat both Texas and Texas A&M? 1988.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Funny that channel 13 is the "Official Television Station of the Houston Texans!" yet the one regular game which it had access to telecast it got outbid by channel 2.
2. You know the Rockets' preseason opener is a week from Tuesday? There's very little chance they're good this season, but it could be a fun squad showing much promise for coming years.
3. Biggest babies to come out of LSU: Bronze-Herman Johnson (15 pounds 14 ounces at birth!) Silver-Glen Davis Gold-Ben Simmons
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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