BANK ON BREGGY

How an unconventional approach could keep Alex Bregman in an Astros uniform

How an unconventional approach could keep Alex Bregman in an Astros uniform
Can the Astros afford to let Alex Bregman hit free agency.?Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Astros owner Jim Crane may want to check under his sofa cushions for loose change, start clipping coupons, take a hammer to his piggy bank, and consider playing golf after 1 p.m. and eating dinner before 5 p.m. for the early bird special. Because the price of signing star third baseman Alex Bregman to a contract extension – which the Astros have said is on their to-do list – just went through the Minute Maid Park roof.

Breggy may want to send Manny Machado a thank you note and a free case of salsa.

The San Diego Padres signed their All-Star third sacker Machado to an 11-year contract worth $350 million this week. If Machado got $350 million, what will Bregman be worth if the Astros allow him to hit the free agent market after the 2024 season?

Let's compare and contrast. Actually there isn't much to contrast. Machado and Bregman have put up remarkably comparable numbers during their careers.

Career batting average: Machado (.282), Bregman (.277).

On-base percentage: Machado (.341), Bregman (.375).

OPS: Machado (.833), Bregman (.872).

Slugging: Machado (.493), Bregman (.497).

Both are slick fielders and fan favorites in their home cities. Machado was the third player taken in the 2010 draft. Bregman went No. 2 in 2015. Bregman has the edge in postseason statistics, a higher batting average and, of course, two World Series rings to Machado's zero. Of course, it helps that Bregman has played his entire 7-year career with the Astros while Machado has bounced from Baltimore to Los Angeles to San Diego during his 12 years in the big leagues.

Getting back to … if Machado is worth $350 million now without having to go through free agency, what might Bregman command on the open market if he stays healthy and productive through the 2024 season? The number could be staggering.

Bregman's agent is Scott Boras, who isn't exactly known for playing footsie with team owners and offering hometown discounts. You see Machado's $350 million? His agent is Boras. While we can only guess what baseball's economy will be like in 2024 heading into the 2025 season, what goes up doesn't always come down.

The stars and dollar signs are lining up for Bregman. The New York Yankees might be lurking for a third baseman. The current Yankee third baseman is Josh Donaldson. If you're real quiet, you can hear the echo of Yankees fans booing him last season when Donaldson hit a career low .222, He's also 37 years old. The Yankees played a split-squad game this week. Donaldson was with the B-team. While Donaldson is still the starter, consider that a message delivered.

Machado is 30 years old. That's how old Bregman will be at the end of 2024.

Bregman has a lot of intangibles in his favor. He is a baseball fanatic, obsessed with the game. He is involved with the city, offering his time to charities. He was born to do post-game interviews. He is a marketing dream. He has his own line of condiments.

Unlike the Astros, the Yankees aren't averse to offering long-term contracts, which Bregman surely could command in free agency. Sure, Bregman is saying all the right things down in spring training. He loves the Astros, he loves Houston, he loves his teammates. The Astros certainly would love to have Bregman play his entire career in Houston. His agent loves money and long-term deals, though.

Let's not minimize this, especially if he hits free agency and the Yankees are desperate for a third baseman. Bregman is Jewish. He would be a dream acquisition for New York. There are 1.6 million Jews in New York City. That's more than Tel Aviv and Jerusalem combined. Endorsement deals? Fugeddabbout it. Bregman's wife Reagan is a regular guest on Channel 2's Houston Life show. She would be hosting Coffee Talk on cable in New York.

Bregman, to his credit, isn't shy about saying he's open to suggestions of what might be available to him. Beloved as Bregman is in Houston, the Astros have said goodbye to popular players rather than offer long-term contracts. What the Astros could do is this - tear up his current contract and offer Bregman insane money, whatever it takes, over five years. That would keep Bregman here at least for the short haul, and Bregman would be only 33, still in his prime, when he's up for a new contract. Done deal.

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Has Christian Walker finally turned the corner? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros return to Daikin Park on Tuesday night looking to keep their momentum going as they host the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET, with Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.78 ERA) on the mound for Houston against Detroit’s Reese Olson (3-1, 3.29 ERA).

Winners of seven of their last ten, the Astros (15-13) have found their rhythm after a rocky start to the season. Their recent surge has been fueled by dominant pitching — a 2.35 ERA over the last 10 games — and improved production at the plate, including a .264 team batting average over that span. Houston has also outscored opponents by 18 runs during that stretch and boasts a solid 10-6 record at home.

While the offense has yet to fully catch fire, signs of life are emerging. Jeremy Peña continues to be a steady presence with five doubles and three homers, while Christian Walker has driven in six runs over his last 10 games, including three long balls. The Astros’ bats will be tested against a Tigers staff that leads the American League with a 2.86 ERA.

Houston’s Tuesday starter, Ryan Gusto, has been sharp through his first five outings, posting a 1.10 WHIP and 23 strikeouts. He’ll look to keep Detroit’s bats quiet, especially red-hot Zach McKinstry, who’s hitting .406 over his last 10 games, and slugger Spencer Torkelson, who already has eight homers this season.

The Tigers (18-11) may sit atop their division, but they’ve struggled away from home, going just 5-8 on the road. The Astros will look to capitalize and even the season series in their second matchup with Detroit.

With the offense trending upward and the pitching staff in a groove, Houston has a prime opportunity to keep building momentum in front of the home crowd.

Here's a sneak peek at the Astros lineup. Altuve is once again batting second after asking manager Joe Espada to move him down in the batting order. Zach Dezenzo is playing right field with Cam Smith getting the night off. Jake Meyers is back in center field and Mauricio Dubon is starting at second base.

Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot

A big test awaits

It appears the Astros may have tipped their hand regarding tomorrow's starting pitcher. Chandler Rome is reporting AJ Blubaugh is at Daikin Park today.

Following Tuesday night's game, Blubaugh has been officially announced as the starter.

Espada said Hayden Wesneski is not injured but needs more time to recover from his last start.

*ChatGPT assisted.

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