BANK ON BREGGY
How an unconventional approach could keep Alex Bregman in an Astros uniform
Feb 28, 2023, 6:16 pm
Can the Astros afford to let Alex Bregman hit free agency.?Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Astros owner Jim Crane may want to check under his sofa cushions for loose change, start clipping coupons, take a hammer to his piggy bank, and consider playing golf after 1 p.m. and eating dinner before 5 p.m. for the early bird special. Because the price of signing star third baseman Alex Bregman to a contract extension – which the Astros have said is on their to-do list – just went through the Minute Maid Park roof.
Breggy may want to send Manny Machado a thank you note and a free case of salsa.
The San Diego Padres signed their All-Star third sacker Machado to an 11-year contract worth $350 million this week. If Machado got $350 million, what will Bregman be worth if the Astros allow him to hit the free agent market after the 2024 season?
Let's compare and contrast. Actually there isn't much to contrast. Machado and Bregman have put up remarkably comparable numbers during their careers.
Career batting average: Machado (.282), Bregman (.277).
On-base percentage: Machado (.341), Bregman (.375).
OPS: Machado (.833), Bregman (.872).
Slugging: Machado (.493), Bregman (.497).
Both are slick fielders and fan favorites in their home cities. Machado was the third player taken in the 2010 draft. Bregman went No. 2 in 2015. Bregman has the edge in postseason statistics, a higher batting average and, of course, two World Series rings to Machado's zero. Of course, it helps that Bregman has played his entire 7-year career with the Astros while Machado has bounced from Baltimore to Los Angeles to San Diego during his 12 years in the big leagues.
Getting back to … if Machado is worth $350 million now without having to go through free agency, what might Bregman command on the open market if he stays healthy and productive through the 2024 season? The number could be staggering.
Bregman's agent is Scott Boras, who isn't exactly known for playing footsie with team owners and offering hometown discounts. You see Machado's $350 million? His agent is Boras. While we can only guess what baseball's economy will be like in 2024 heading into the 2025 season, what goes up doesn't always come down.
The stars and dollar signs are lining up for Bregman. The New York Yankees might be lurking for a third baseman. The current Yankee third baseman is Josh Donaldson. If you're real quiet, you can hear the echo of Yankees fans booing him last season when Donaldson hit a career low .222, He's also 37 years old. The Yankees played a split-squad game this week. Donaldson was with the B-team. While Donaldson is still the starter, consider that a message delivered.
Machado is 30 years old. That's how old Bregman will be at the end of 2024.
Bregman has a lot of intangibles in his favor. He is a baseball fanatic, obsessed with the game. He is involved with the city, offering his time to charities. He was born to do post-game interviews. He is a marketing dream. He has his own line of condiments.
Unlike the Astros, the Yankees aren't averse to offering long-term contracts, which Bregman surely could command in free agency. Sure, Bregman is saying all the right things down in spring training. He loves the Astros, he loves Houston, he loves his teammates. The Astros certainly would love to have Bregman play his entire career in Houston. His agent loves money and long-term deals, though.
Let's not minimize this, especially if he hits free agency and the Yankees are desperate for a third baseman. Bregman is Jewish. He would be a dream acquisition for New York. There are 1.6 million Jews in New York City. That's more than Tel Aviv and Jerusalem combined. Endorsement deals? Fugeddabbout it. Bregman's wife Reagan is a regular guest on Channel 2's Houston Life show. She would be hosting Coffee Talk on cable in New York.
Bregman, to his credit, isn't shy about saying he's open to suggestions of what might be available to him. Beloved as Bregman is in Houston, the Astros have said goodbye to popular players rather than offer long-term contracts. What the Astros could do is this - tear up his current contract and offer Bregman insane money, whatever it takes, over five years. That would keep Bregman here at least for the short haul, and Bregman would be only 33, still in his prime, when he's up for a new contract. Done deal.
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The Chicago Cubs acquired All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Houston Astros on Friday, paying a big price for one of baseball's best hitters.
The Cubs sent third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith, one of their top infield prospects, to the Astros for Tucker, who is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.
Be sure to watch the video below as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros reacts to the trade and lays out what the future holds for the new-look Astros.
Tucker was limited to 78 games this year because of a fractured right shin, but he hit .289 with 23 homers and 49 RBIs for the AL West champions. He batted .284 with 29 homers, an AL-best 112 RBIs and 30 steals for Houston in 2023.
Tucker, who turns 28 on Jan. 17, joins a crowded situation in Chicago's outfield, but the Cubs are reportedly looking to trade Cody Bellinger, who also can play first base. They also have talked to Seiya Suzuki's agent about the outfielder's no-trade clause.
The Cubs have finished second in the NL Central with an 83-79 record in each of the past two years, and there is increased pressure on president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to get the team back into the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
The Cubs announced later in the day that they had agreed to an $11.5 million, two-year contract with catcher Carson Kelly, a Chicago native. He played for Detroit and Texas this year, batting .238 with nine homers and 37 RBIs in 91 games.
The New York Yankees also were in the mix for Tucker before the trade was completed.
“We certainly had many conversations with the Astros.” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “At the end of the day I’m glad that Mr. Tucker is not in the American League East or the American League at all. But it’s a big get for the Chicago Cubs.”
Paredes is an option for Houston at third base if Alex Bregman departs in free agency. The 25-year-old Paredes hit .238 with 19 homers and 80 RBIs in 153 games this year. He made the AL All-Star team with Tampa Bay and then was traded to Chicago in July.
Paredes, who bats from the right side and is known for his pull power, chuckled as he talked about taking aim at the Crawford Boxes in left field at Minute Maid Park.
“I feel very happy. It's not only a beautiful stadium, but it's a stadium that benefits my hitting,” he said through a translator.
Even with the acquisition of Paredes, who also can play first, Astros general manager Dana Brown did not close the door on a reunion with Bregman.
“Pretty much Alex Bregman's status is still the way it is,” Brown said. “Nothing has changed since the last time I've talked to you guys.”
Wesneski, a Houston native who played college ball for Sam Houston State, will compete for a spot in the Astros’ rotation.
The right-hander, who turned 27 on Dec. 5, went 3-6 with a 3.86 ERA over 21 relief appearances and seven starts this year. He was on the injured list from July 20 to Sept. 20 with a right forearm strain.
“It’s just a dream-come-true kind of thing,” Wesneski said. “I am excited to be an Astro.”
Houston is hoping the addition of Paredes and Wesneski will help the team continue its impressive run as one of baseball's best teams. It has made the playoffs for eight straight years, winning the World Series in 2017 and 2022. It was swept by Detroit in the wild-card round this year.
“Look, make no mistake. We're still going to compete,” Brown said, “and this is probably one of those moves that I think in the future people will see and understand like, yeah, wow, I understand it now, I get it. ... I would say that this is more to strengthen our opportunities down the road without losing any footage in the current year.”
While Paredes and Wesneski could have an immediate impact, Smith also was a key component of the deal.
Smith, 21, was selected by Chicago with the No. 14 pick in this year's draft out of Florida State University. He hit .313 with seven homers and 24 RBIs in 32 games over three minor league stops, finishing the year with Double-A Knoxville.
“It's a really good first-round college bat with power, with a chance to hit, and he's pretty athletic as well,” Brown said. “So we're really excited about Cam Smith.”
Tucker was Houston's first-round pick in 2015, taken No. 5 overall. He made his big league debut with the Astros in 2018.
Tucker had a breakout performance three years after his debut, hitting a career-best .294 with 30 homers and 92 RBIs in 140 games in 2021. He won a Gold Glove the following year.
The Tampa, Florida, native is a .274 hitter with 125 homers, 417 RBIs and an .869 OPS in 633 career games — all with Houston. He also has appeared in 64 postseason games, batting .229 with eight homers and 28 RBIs.
Kelly gets $5 million in each of the next two seasons, and his deal with Chicago includes a $7.5 million mutual option for 2027 with a $1.5 million buyout. He can earn $500,000 in performance bonuses during each of the three seasons; $250,000 each for 81 and 91 games started.
The Cubs were in need of more depth behind the plate. They also have Miguel Amaya, who played in a career-high 117 games this year, and Matt Thaiss, who was acquired in a trade with the Angels on Nov. 20.