THE PALLILOG
Here are some advantages Houston Astros will look to exploit for potential ALDS closeout
Oct 13, 2022, 7:56 pm
THE PALLILOG
Well that was easy. OK, not easy given what it took to win game one, and game two was no breeze, but the Astros taking both to open their American League Division Series with Seattle has them on the cusp of becoming the first team to reach the American League Championship Series six consecutive seasons. The hay is not yet in the barn but the baler travels. Obviously the Mariners could win two straight at home and then take a winner takes all fifth game back in Houston Monday. But highly probably not. Let’s call it a 91.7 percent probability that the Astros will again be playing in MLB’s version of the Final Four, and Yordan Alvarez climbs multiple rungs on the Astros Legends Ladder.
In going for the sweep Saturday the Astros ask Lance McCullers to deliver a good outing on the road, which has not been his career norm. As I noted before the series started, McCullers has been outstanding in his career at home (2.67 earned run average), not so good elsewhere (4.43 ERA on the road). That’s what made Dusty Baker’s decision to start Valdez in game two at home and holding back McCullers for game three on the road a questionable one. In addition to McCullers historically being significantly better at home, Valdez was notably better on the road this season. By no means was it a stupid choice, but certainly questionable. Part of the rationale is having Verlander ready on four days rest for game four, with Valdez available on three days rest for a prospective fifth and decisive game. Now that is highly questionable. The track record in this era of starters going on short rest is not very good. Starting Verlander in game four and Framber in game five would mean the Astros second best starter over the final weeks of the season (Cristian Javier) was relegated to just a little bullpen work in the series. Javier starting game four would be more sensible. If they won in four the rotation starts fresh for the ALCS. If a game five, Verlander would be ready. The Astros intend to render such matters moot.
When there’s a roof, Lance McCullers prefers it be closed when he’s pitching. Another reason if I’m the Mariners the roof is open for game three. That and the game time forecast calling for perfect outdoor baseball weather, mostly sunny and about 70 degrees. Should there be a game four Sunday, the weather will again be gorgeous in the Emerald City. The Astros hope to be home watching football or doing whatever else they’d do on a second consecutive idle Sunday. The Mariners switched up from their original starting pitching plan. Rookie right-hander George Kirby gets the call. Kirby replaces Robbie Ray, who was last seen grooving the fastball Yordan Alvarez hit approximately 9000 feet to win game one.
Should the Astros finish off the sweep, they will have three game-less days ahead of opening the American League Championship Series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. The schedule for that series is of course TV-dictated. Games one and two at MMP Wednesday and Thursday, a travel day ahead of games three, four, and (if necessary) five in New York or Cleveland, with no day off before an if necessary game six (and seven) in Houston. The LCS schedule means that if the series goes the distance, unless using a starter on short rest, five different starting pitchers will be needed. That would seemingly be to the Astros’ benefit.
There is no reason for alarm re: Justin Verlander off of his lousy game one performance. It’s not as if he faded down the stretch of the regular season. After returning from his near three week Injured List stint because of a calf tweak, Verlander pitched to a 1.17 ERA in four starts. That he was rusty in game one really doesn’t fly. He started game one on six days rest. Verlander made the majority (16 of 28) of his regular season starts on five days rest. In his seven starts made on six or more days rest his ERA was 0.63. Verlander just stunk Tuesday. It happens. It is true that in his last six postseason starts Verlander has met the “quality start” definition just once. If not needed for another start vs. the Mariners, there should be no hesitation in going with Verlander in ALCS game one.
So where does Yordan’s monster shot to win game one slot on the list of top five most dramatic Astros moments ever at Minute Maid Park? Talking positive Astros moments, or Albert Pujols’s 2005 NLCS blast off of Brad Lidge would have to fit in somewhere. Recency bias would put Yordan at the top. It came as very surprising that Alvarez is the first player in postseason history to hit a game-ending homer with his team down by more than one run. Still, it was game one of the Division Series so I place it fourth. Number five: Chris Burke’s 18th inning series ending homer in the 2005 Division Series vs. the Braves. That game took so long some crowd fatigue had set in, and with Burke being light-hitting, there was nothing close to the drama to his AB as when Yordan strode to the plate. Number three: Jeff Kent’s game winning blast in the bottom of the ninth of game five of the 2004 NLCS. That was a 0-0 game before Kent launched. Number two: Alex Bregman’s 2017 World Series game five 10th inning single that ended the most exhilarating game in Astros’ history. Number one: Jose Altuve’s 2019 American League pennant winning homer vs. the Yankees.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
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