THE PALLILOG
Here are some advantages Houston Astros will look to exploit for potential ALDS closeout
Oct 13, 2022, 7:56 pm
Lance McCullers starts Game 3 for Houston. Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images.
Well that was easy. OK, not easy given what it took to win game one, and game two was no breeze, but the Astros taking both to open their American League Division Series with Seattle has them on the cusp of becoming the first team to reach the American League Championship Series six consecutive seasons. The hay is not yet in the barn but the baler travels. Obviously the Mariners could win two straight at home and then take a winner takes all fifth game back in Houston Monday. But highly probably not. Let’s call it a 91.7 percent probability that the Astros will again be playing in MLB’s version of the Final Four, and Yordan Alvarez climbs multiple rungs on the Astros Legends Ladder.
In going for the sweep Saturday the Astros ask Lance McCullers to deliver a good outing on the road, which has not been his career norm. As I noted before the series started, McCullers has been outstanding in his career at home (2.67 earned run average), not so good elsewhere (4.43 ERA on the road). That’s what made Dusty Baker’s decision to start Valdez in game two at home and holding back McCullers for game three on the road a questionable one. In addition to McCullers historically being significantly better at home, Valdez was notably better on the road this season. By no means was it a stupid choice, but certainly questionable. Part of the rationale is having Verlander ready on four days rest for game four, with Valdez available on three days rest for a prospective fifth and decisive game. Now that is highly questionable. The track record in this era of starters going on short rest is not very good. Starting Verlander in game four and Framber in game five would mean the Astros second best starter over the final weeks of the season (Cristian Javier) was relegated to just a little bullpen work in the series. Javier starting game four would be more sensible. If they won in four the rotation starts fresh for the ALCS. If a game five, Verlander would be ready. The Astros intend to render such matters moot.
When there’s a roof, Lance McCullers prefers it be closed when he’s pitching. Another reason if I’m the Mariners the roof is open for game three. That and the game time forecast calling for perfect outdoor baseball weather, mostly sunny and about 70 degrees. Should there be a game four Sunday, the weather will again be gorgeous in the Emerald City. The Astros hope to be home watching football or doing whatever else they’d do on a second consecutive idle Sunday. The Mariners switched up from their original starting pitching plan. Rookie right-hander George Kirby gets the call. Kirby replaces Robbie Ray, who was last seen grooving the fastball Yordan Alvarez hit approximately 9000 feet to win game one.
Should the Astros finish off the sweep, they will have three game-less days ahead of opening the American League Championship Series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. The schedule for that series is of course TV-dictated. Games one and two at MMP Wednesday and Thursday, a travel day ahead of games three, four, and (if necessary) five in New York or Cleveland, with no day off before an if necessary game six (and seven) in Houston. The LCS schedule means that if the series goes the distance, unless using a starter on short rest, five different starting pitchers will be needed. That would seemingly be to the Astros’ benefit.
There is no reason for alarm re: Justin Verlander off of his lousy game one performance. It’s not as if he faded down the stretch of the regular season. After returning from his near three week Injured List stint because of a calf tweak, Verlander pitched to a 1.17 ERA in four starts. That he was rusty in game one really doesn’t fly. He started game one on six days rest. Verlander made the majority (16 of 28) of his regular season starts on five days rest. In his seven starts made on six or more days rest his ERA was 0.63. Verlander just stunk Tuesday. It happens. It is true that in his last six postseason starts Verlander has met the “quality start” definition just once. If not needed for another start vs. the Mariners, there should be no hesitation in going with Verlander in ALCS game one.
So where does Yordan’s monster shot to win game one slot on the list of top five most dramatic Astros moments ever at Minute Maid Park? Talking positive Astros moments, or Albert Pujols’s 2005 NLCS blast off of Brad Lidge would have to fit in somewhere. Recency bias would put Yordan at the top. It came as very surprising that Alvarez is the first player in postseason history to hit a game-ending homer with his team down by more than one run. Still, it was game one of the Division Series so I place it fourth. Number five: Chris Burke’s 18th inning series ending homer in the 2005 Division Series vs. the Braves. That game took so long some crowd fatigue had set in, and with Burke being light-hitting, there was nothing close to the drama to his AB as when Yordan strode to the plate. Number three: Jeff Kent’s game winning blast in the bottom of the ninth of game five of the 2004 NLCS. That was a 0-0 game before Kent launched. Number two: Alex Bregman’s 2017 World Series game five 10th inning single that ended the most exhilarating game in Astros’ history. Number one: Jose Altuve’s 2019 American League pennant winning homer vs. the Yankees.
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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