THE PALLILOG
Here's what could be the difference in Houston Astros HOF candidacy
Jan 19, 2023, 3:55 pm
Billy Wagner's numbers speak volumes. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images.
Hey Astros: keep this $@&! as far away from your team as possible!
Down to four weeks until the doors swing open for Astros’ spring training in West Palm Beach. The on time start to things this year has Astros’ pitchers and catchers reporting Thursday, February 16, with everyone else due Tuesday, February 21. All together now: Yay!!!
The Astros will convene at the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches complex with very few pressing questions. Who will job share behind the plate with Martin Maldonado? Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee will battle for that. Will a left-handed hitting center fielder surface to complement Chas McCormick? The Astros really have no legit contender for the job unless you like the idea of Kyle Tucker sliding over to center a little bit. Will the Astros carry a left-handed reliever? Blake Taylor is the only in house candidate. Still unsigned free agent lefty Andrew Chafin would be a quality addition but Jim Crane is probably thinking why give two years 16 mil or so to Chafin when the Astros had the best bullpen in the big leagues in 2022 and have every major contributor (Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Bryan Abreu) back. On the subject of the Astros and left-handed relievers…
Cooperstown calling?
The Baseball Writers Association Hall of Fame Class of 2023 is named on Tuesday. This will be a big year to see if Billy Wagner gets the jump needed to position him for a good shot at election in the two years he has left on the ballot after this one. 75 percent “yes” votes are needed for election. After starting off with a paltry 10.5 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot (for the Class of 2016), Wagner actually got a smaller percentage of votes (10.2 percent) the following year. However,“Wags” has gained sizable ground over the last five years, going from 11.1 percent to 16.7, then a sizable leap to 31.7, then 46.4, then last year edging above the 50-50 mark at 51 percent. In the meantime Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera were relievers elected to the Hall. Both obviously had greater careers than Wagner. With Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling no longer eligible for the BBWAA vote, Wagner had the third-highest vote percentage of players back on the ballot this year, behind Scott Rolen and Todd Helton. Rolen probably makes it Tuesday. Helton and Wagner probably not.
Wagner has some numbers that make him a very strong candidate. He is sixth on Major League Baseball’s career saves list with 422. The top three (Rivera, Hoffman, and Lee Smith) are all in the Hall. However, number four man Francisco Rodriguez is unlikely to come anywhere close in his first year on the ballot, and number five man John Franco (the only lefty with more saves than Wagner) didn’t even get five percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot, so was then dropped. Wagner’s career 2.31 earned average is stellar. In only one season of his career did Wagner have an ERA higher than 2.85 and in only one season did hitters combine for a batting average of even .220 against him. Both occurred in 2000 when Wagner was pitching with an unraveling elbow that needed season ending surgery. After returning in 2001 Wagner’s ERA over the remainder of his career was 2.13. Mariano Rivera’s career ERA was 2.21. Career OPS against: Rivera .555, Wagner .558. Wagner’s career WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning) is a hair lower than Rivera’s, .998 vs. 1.000.
One notable negative for Wagner is his low total of only 903 innings pitched in his career. Of the guys enshrined in Cooperstown primarily because of their work out of the bullpen, only Dennis Eckersley threw fewer relief innings, but he also had nearly 2500 innings as a starter. Among straight relievers, the late Bruce Sutter is next fewest above Wagner in innings pitched with 1042. One could argue that it's a small sample size and it shouldn’t impact a HOF vote. But if someone is splitting hairs: Wagner was bad in the postseason. A 10.03 earned run average over 14 appearances.
Wagner isn't the only former Astro on the ballot
It’s a notable ballot year for two other former Astros, both short-timer Astros. Carlos Beltran is in his first year of eligibility. Purely on the playing merits, Beltran is the only first year guy with a compelling Hall case. It will be interesting to see how many voters hold his notable role in the Astros’ cheating scandal against him. Jeff Kent is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. Kent has no chance, having gotten only 33 percent of necessary votes a year ago.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
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