THE PALLILOG
Here's what could be the difference in Houston Astros HOF candidacy
Jan 19, 2023, 3:55 pm
THE PALLILOG
Down to four weeks until the doors swing open for Astros’ spring training in West Palm Beach. The on time start to things this year has Astros’ pitchers and catchers reporting Thursday, February 16, with everyone else due Tuesday, February 21. All together now: Yay!!!
The Astros will convene at the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches complex with very few pressing questions. Who will job share behind the plate with Martin Maldonado? Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee will battle for that. Will a left-handed hitting center fielder surface to complement Chas McCormick? The Astros really have no legit contender for the job unless you like the idea of Kyle Tucker sliding over to center a little bit. Will the Astros carry a left-handed reliever? Blake Taylor is the only in house candidate. Still unsigned free agent lefty Andrew Chafin would be a quality addition but Jim Crane is probably thinking why give two years 16 mil or so to Chafin when the Astros had the best bullpen in the big leagues in 2022 and have every major contributor (Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Bryan Abreu) back. On the subject of the Astros and left-handed relievers…
Cooperstown calling?
The Baseball Writers Association Hall of Fame Class of 2023 is named on Tuesday. This will be a big year to see if Billy Wagner gets the jump needed to position him for a good shot at election in the two years he has left on the ballot after this one. 75 percent “yes” votes are needed for election. After starting off with a paltry 10.5 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot (for the Class of 2016), Wagner actually got a smaller percentage of votes (10.2 percent) the following year. However,“Wags” has gained sizable ground over the last five years, going from 11.1 percent to 16.7, then a sizable leap to 31.7, then 46.4, then last year edging above the 50-50 mark at 51 percent. In the meantime Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera were relievers elected to the Hall. Both obviously had greater careers than Wagner. With Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling no longer eligible for the BBWAA vote, Wagner had the third-highest vote percentage of players back on the ballot this year, behind Scott Rolen and Todd Helton. Rolen probably makes it Tuesday. Helton and Wagner probably not.
Wagner has some numbers that make him a very strong candidate. He is sixth on Major League Baseball’s career saves list with 422. The top three (Rivera, Hoffman, and Lee Smith) are all in the Hall. However, number four man Francisco Rodriguez is unlikely to come anywhere close in his first year on the ballot, and number five man John Franco (the only lefty with more saves than Wagner) didn’t even get five percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot, so was then dropped. Wagner’s career 2.31 earned average is stellar. In only one season of his career did Wagner have an ERA higher than 2.85 and in only one season did hitters combine for a batting average of even .220 against him. Both occurred in 2000 when Wagner was pitching with an unraveling elbow that needed season ending surgery. After returning in 2001 Wagner’s ERA over the remainder of his career was 2.13. Mariano Rivera’s career ERA was 2.21. Career OPS against: Rivera .555, Wagner .558. Wagner’s career WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning) is a hair lower than Rivera’s, .998 vs. 1.000.
One notable negative for Wagner is his low total of only 903 innings pitched in his career. Of the guys enshrined in Cooperstown primarily because of their work out of the bullpen, only Dennis Eckersley threw fewer relief innings, but he also had nearly 2500 innings as a starter. Among straight relievers, the late Bruce Sutter is next fewest above Wagner in innings pitched with 1042. One could argue that it's a small sample size and it shouldn’t impact a HOF vote. But if someone is splitting hairs: Wagner was bad in the postseason. A 10.03 earned run average over 14 appearances.
Wagner isn't the only former Astro on the ballot
It’s a notable ballot year for two other former Astros, both short-timer Astros. Carlos Beltran is in his first year of eligibility. Purely on the playing merits, Beltran is the only first year guy with a compelling Hall case. It will be interesting to see how many voters hold his notable role in the Astros’ cheating scandal against him. Jeff Kent is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. Kent has no chance, having gotten only 33 percent of necessary votes a year ago.
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This week, the Houston Texans take on the Colts in a matchup with division supremacy on the line. If the Texans are able to come away with a victory, they will own the tiebreaker over Indy and enjoy a comfortable lead in the division.
However, a loss to the Colts means the Texans will be in a virtual tie with Indy in the AFC South. So what do the Texans need to do to secure a win?
On offense, they'll have to do a much better job of protecting CJ Stroud. In their last game against the Packers, Stroud faced immense pressure on third downs, with 12 of his 14 dropbacks resulting in pressure.
During one series, Stroud was flushed from the pocket and forced to scramble on three straight plays. They have to clean up the protection, or it will be another long day for the offense.
Fortunately for the Texans, this game is at home. So hopefully the communication issues the Texans o-line dealt with on the road last week won't be an issue at NRG.
Rushing attack
Houston can't afford to rely solely on Joe Mixon and the run game to carry the offense. While Mixon has been terrific, contributing significantly in recent weeks, the Texans will need a balanced attack. Which means Stroud must have time to operate in the pocket.
Bulls on parade
The defense last week was another story for the Texans. They played well against Green Bay, limiting them to 24 points. This week, they face a very different type of quarterback. Anthony Richardson is dead last in passer rating and completion percentage, so that's definitely working in their favor.
We know what Richardson can do with his legs, and Indy is expecting running back Jonathan Taylor to return from an ankle injury, so the rushing defense will be tested.
Richardson's accuracy is certainly a weakness, but he does throw a good deep ball that gave the defense problems in Week 1 this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 5 points and the total is set at 45.5 points.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we share our in-depth breakdown of the game, as well as our predictions for Sunday's contest.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.