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If the Astros want the best record in Major League Baseball (of course they do), they can't afford to lose many games on days when both the Dodgers and Yankees lose. Thursday night the Dodgers and Yankees lost, and then the Astros lost at Oakland. So heading into the weekend the Astros trail both by two and a half games.
The Astros have a spectacularly constructed ballclub. But like every other big league team ever, they're not perfect. For all the overpowering capability of their offense, when trailing after eight innings this season, the Astros are 0 and 40. Now, all teams lose almost every game when behind after eight, not many lose EVERY game. Overall however, the most important component of that stat is that over their first 122 games played, the Astros have only trailed going to the ninth 40 times.
The bullpen is a real concern these days. No reason to be feeling around for panic buttons, but concern is clearly warranted. Closer Roberto Osuna is nothing special and over the last two plus months has been much less. In the past A.J. Hinch has said bullpen roles are flexible. He hasn't managed that way. Osuna has essentially been the automatic ninth inning save situation guy. He's not that good. Osuna started the season converting his 1st 13 save chances. Since then he's converted 13 more…and blown five others. That, is poor. Two seasons ago Osuna led the Major Leagues in blown saves with 10.
If Ryan Pressly gets fully back on track off of his leg injury he is the Astros best reliever, and in October should be the reliever asked to get the toughest outs late in games. But since starting his season near flawlessly into June, Pressly too has been shakier than desirable.
Among the "others" only Will Harris is having a good season. It's a regular season problem in the race with the Yankees and Dodgers. It's an issue that can be diminished in the postseason. As two years ago when Ken Giles and, really, Chris Devenski became unusable, Hinch may well use Astros' starting pitchers for relief in some key spots.
After this weekend's series at Oakland, the Astros schedule is soft overall the rest of the way. But they can't just throw their bats and gloves on the field and win. See this week's results.
The Yankees meanwhile have been pretty amazing. Their injury load this season has been clearly worse than what the Astros have endured, and that's saying a lot, considering three of the best dozen or so players in the American League (George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve) have all missed chunks of time this season. Yet the Yankees have opened up 2 ½ games of daylight over the Astros. But, the Yanks are now in a 10 game stretch of four vs. the Indians, three at the A's, then three at the Dodgers. The stretch started with the Indians obliterating the Yankees with 19 runs Thursday. It's doubtful the Yankees grow their lead over this stretch, but if they do the Astros will probably have to settle for being the second best team in the American League. Until the playoffs anyway.
With the Detroit Lions in town to practice for two days with and then play the Texans Saturday, it comes to mind that Barry Sanders retired 20 years ago this summer. No running back had a greater and more electrifying NFL career. Jim Brown was greater, but I don't think as electrifying. Walter Payton was greater, but I don't think as electrifying. Bo Jackson was maybe even more electrifying, but his NFL career was a hiccup.
Sanders played 10 NFL seasons. He retired at 31 years old one good season short of topping Payton for the career NFL rushing record that Emmitt Smith would go on to shatter. Over Sanders's decade with Detroit the Lions made the playoffs five times but won exactly one playoff game (destroying the Cowboys 38-6 the season before the Cowboys won the first of their three Lombardi Trophies of the Aikman/Smith/Irvin era). That is the Lions' Super Bowl era Golden Age. They won the 1957 NFL Championship. And have just that one playoff win since. One playoff win in 61 years! And some Texans fans think they have it tough.
I discussed on the show Thursday that if going with a four wide receiver set and the sole criterion is best hands, my all-time foursome is Cris Carter, Larry Fitzgerald, Fred Biletnikoff, and I think DeAndre Hopkins. Highest honorable mention to Steve Largent, and anecdotally, Raymond Berry. Jerry Rice is head and shoulders the greatest wide receiver ever, but for pure pass catching ability he is not supplanting the aforementioned. Biletnikoff was clearly aided by the gobs of now illegal stickum that he used. On the other hand, today's pass catchers benefit from much tackier and more helpful gloves.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Despite four losses in their last five games the Astros are still on pace to win 103. 2. That guy who bangs a drum all game in Oakland should be locked in an elevator for a week with the guy who does it in Cleveland. And two insurance salesmen. 3. Best things about preseason football: Bronze-vacant Silver-surprise guys who earn jobs Gold-the end of it
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The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners return from the All-Star break with no time to ease in. Instead, the two top teams in the American League West jump straight into a three-game clash at T-Mobile Park that could shape the tone of the division race as the second half gets underway.
Houston enters the weekend at 56-40, holding a five-game edge over Seattle and holding off a division that refuses to go quietly. The Astros stumbled into the break with a 1-5 homestand, but their body of work across the first half, especially offensively, still makes them the standard in the West. Friday marks the eighth meeting between the clubs this year, with Houston currently holding a slight 4-3 edge in the season series.
The Astros hand the ball to lefty Brandon Walter (1-2, 3.98 ERA), a name that’s quietly become more relevant in a rotation still trying to stabilize. Walter has walked just two batters across his first 40 2/3 innings and carries a tidy 1.008 WHIP into Friday’s matchup. With the Astros still without Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, and Jake Meyers, they’ll need pitching to hold serve until reinforcements arrive, or deals are made.
The Mariners will counter with their ace, right-hander Luis Castillo (6-5, 3.41 ERA), who has been Seattle’s most consistent arm. Castillo has 93 strikeouts and has historically pitched well at home, where the Mariners are 25-21 this season. He’ll look to neutralize a Houston offense that, while banged up, is still dangerous, particularly when the ball leaves the yard. The Astros are 21-6 in games when they hit two or more home runs.
Jose Altuve has been on a tear, going 16-for-37 over his last 10 games with four homers and 14 RBIs. He’s part of an Astros lineup that ranks ninth in OPS and first in batting average on the year. Isaac Paredes continues to provide pop with a team-best 19 home runs, and the team as a whole is hitting .269 over its last 10 games. But pitching has wobbled a bit lately, posting a 4.60 ERA in that same span.
Seattle, meanwhile, comes in having won six of 10, outscoring opponents by 17 runs across that stretch. Cal Raleigh continues to be a force in the middle of the order with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, while J.P. Crawford has quietly sparked the lineup with a .341 average and six RBIs in his last 10 contests. The Mariners are also getting healthier on the mound, and their rotation,once thin, is now a looming threat.
It’s only July, and the cliché says it’s just another series. But with the trade deadline two weeks away and the division gap sitting at five games, both teams understand what this weekend could mean. A Seattle sweep tightens the race dramatically. A Houston series win could widen the gap enough to change the calculus in the front office war rooms.
The stakes are high, the rosters aren’t at full strength, and the calendar is only getting shorter. That’s the recipe for a classic Astros-Mariners showdown.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Mariners -134, Astros +113; over/under is 7 1/2 runs
Here's an early look at the Astros lineup for Game 1!
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What stands out? Cam Smith is back in the two-spot with Christian Walker hitting cleanup. He's followed by DH Victor Caratini, Yainer Diaz (C), Taylor Trammell (CF), Mauricio Dubon (SS), and Brice Matthews at second base.
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