THE PALLILOG
Here's how the Astros stack up to the Chicago White Sox
Oct 1, 2021, 9:36 am
The teams are pretty evenly matched. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Hello October. And almost hello to a fifth consecutive season of Houston Astros' postseason baseball. They struggled most of the last week with the offense lapsing into limp noodle mode, but it's the full season picture that matters and it's a pretty picture as this Golden Age of Astros' baseball now has banked four division titles in five years. The 2021 Astros are clearly not as good as their 2017, 2018, and 2019 predecessors, but that doesn't mean they can't win the World Series that the 2018 and 2019 squads did not. The Astros remain a very good, balanced, and deep squad, which means getting to a third Fall Classic is a definite maybe.
When my column posts next Friday, the Astros will be either up or down a game in their best of five vs. the Chicago White Sox. Over their last 55 games the Astros are just 29-26. Over their last 46 games the White Sox have gone a mere 24-22. Doesn't matter, carrying momentum into the postseason is generally mythology. The Astros won the season series over the White Sox five games to two. That doesn't matter either. A bad team can beat a good one three out of five, so a good team against another good team? No one knows how it will go. Securing homefield advantage should help the Astros' cause. At home this season the Sox are 51-27. On the road, 40-41. All that's needed to get games one, two and (if necessary) five at Minute Maid Park is one Astros win over the A's this weekend, or one White Sox loss to the Tigers.
The teams are pretty evenly matched. The White Sox have given up the fewest runs in the American League this season. The Astros are second. The Astros have the better lineup though the White Sox are plenty potent. In fact the Sox have the top two OPS guys in the series in catcher Yasmani Grandal and center fielder Luis Robert. Both missed big chunks of the season to injury but are healthy now. Since his return August 9 Robert has hit .365 with 11 home runs in 40 games. The 24 year old Cuban has outperformed 24 year old Cuban Yordan Alvarez, no mean feat.
It's a managerial matchup to delight the elderly, with 72 year old Dusty Baker pushing the buttons for the Astros while Chisox skipper Tony La Russa turns 77 on Monday.
The defending champion Tampa Bay Rays are the team to beat in the American League. They really are amazing winning as much as they do, spending nickels and dimes against the dollars of many others. The Rays' full roster payroll is within a million or two of what the Astros are paying this season to just Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Michael Brantley. The Rays await the Wild Card game winner, the two participants for which remain up in the air. With three games left, the Yankees lead the Red Sox and Mariners (!) by two games, with the Blue Jays one game back of Boston and Seattle. A four way tie would be fabulous.
Texans head to Buffalo
The Texans play at Buffalo Sunday. That is all.
Just kidding! But around here this matchup doesn't exactly generate breathless anticipation. Or much anticipation whatsoever, with the Houston Lambs likely being led to the slaughter. It's almost hard to believe that just the season before last the Texans beat the Bills in a Wild Card round playoff game. Remember the Houdini-esque play Deshaun Watson made in overtime to set up the winning field goal? Hey, at least the Texans are unlikely to blow a 35-3 lead in Buffalo. Still too soon? I note from time to time that the only way to pull off a gigantic upset is to be a gigantic underdog. The Texans have that going for them Sunday with the Bills favored by 17 or 17 and a half points, a whoppingly large number for an NFL game.
Buffalo is a bonafide Super Bowl contender. The AFC runner-up last season after a 13-3 regular season, the Bills should win in the 13 neighborhood again. Quarterback Josh Allen made a massive leap in 2020, hiking his completion percentage a full 10 points from 59 to 69. An expansion team that could poach any QB in the league certainly would take Patrick Mahomes first. Allen might be the second choice.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Five unbeatens left in the NFL. The 3-0 Cardinals are at the 3-0 Rams Sunday. If wondering (or not), J.J. Watt in three games with the Cards: 0 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, in on six tackles.
2. Quite the story surfacing this week claiming that Bill O'Brien at one point was trying to get himself fired by the Texans so he could position himself as Bill Belichick's successor with the Patriots.
3. Among these three specific Carlos Correa options: Bronze-he retires from baseball to try quarterbacking the Texans Silver-Astros lose the ALCS but Correa resigns for seven years Gold-Astros win the World Series and Correa moves on.
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Two seasons ago the Astros were oddly feeble at home and warriors on the road. Now, this season is headed nowhere if they can't pick it up away from Daikin Park. In the first week of April, the Astros won their initial road series of the season. It will be June before they win another. Well, presumably June. Approaching seven weeks since they took a series at Minnesota, it's now seven consecutive road stops without a series victory. In six straight three-game road series the Astros have lost two out of three, including at the laughingstock White Sox. They did split the four-game set in Arlington against the Rangers last weekend. The Astros’ road record is 10-15.
Now they're home for 10 in a row, starting with four versus the team the Astros look up at in the American League West standings. The Seattle Mariners hit town three and a half games ahead of the Astros. Last June, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 10 games and wound up winning the division. Expecting a sequel as good as an original usually is not a good idea. Winning this series is certainly not a necessity given the season still only reaches its one-third completed mark this coming Tuesday. Still, at least getting a split is advised, or the Astros are looking at falling five and half games off the lead should the Mariners win three out of four, seven and a half back should Seattle sweep. But flip the script. If the Astros sweep, they go to bed Sunday night leading the division. Taking three out four would be just fine, and have the Astros within a game and a half of first.
The Astros are carrying a payroll roughly 75 million dollars larger than that of the Mariners. The M’s have a farm system (currently one of the highest rated among the franchises) vastly superior to what the Astros have (one of the worst systems in the sport). So if Mariners’ ownership opted to loosen the purse strings in pursuit of in season talent infusions, the M’s are way better positioned to make an impact move than are the Astros. Just remember, even if the Mariners are going to pull away, the wild card picture does not have three teams that are obviously ultimately better than the Astros.
Positive vibes only
If you're into good luck charms, dig up a four-leaf clover or find a rabbit's foot, then cross your fingers where Ronel Blanco is concerned. It is quite an ominous sign that the Astros sent Blanco back to Houston a day early after he reported soreness in his pitching elbow. I mean, who would be surprised to hear that Blanco is done for the season a la Hayden Wesneski. It's increasingly essential that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez hold up physically and qualitatively the rest of the way. That Brown had his worst start of the season Wednesday in Tampa is no big deal. It's called being human. The Rays torching him for three home runs and five runs in five innings spiked Brown's earned run average all the way up to 2.04. Ooooh. Brown has been fantastic.
The Astros underestimated how long Spencer Arrighetti would be out. Shocking! Some boost from him seems necessary. There is only so much the Astros can reasonably hope for out of Lance McCullers, and the likes of Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter. That either Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia makes it back by, say, August is a best-case scenario. Then it would be hope about level of performance. The Astros hold no monopoly on serial pitching injuries. The Mariners have lost three-fifths of their stout starting rotation. George Kirby making his first 2025 start Thursday is a boost for them. Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are both still out.
Heart of the matter
Among the core frustrations for Astros’ fans are the continued crummy overall performances of Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. If it turns out that the 35-year-old Altuve has truly fallen over the hill as opposed to just enduring an extended deep slump that would be an obvious bummer. The same with the 34-year-old Walker though there is no emotional tug for Astros’ fans with Walker as there is with Altuve. Yainer Diaz is just 26. His regression is troubling, perhaps low-lighted by his one walk in his last 33 games played, four walks for the season in 170 plate appearances. That’s pathetic. Yainer, Victor Caratini, and Astros’ pitchers have collectively done a brutal job at dealing with opposition running games. The Astros have given up 62 stolen bases in 67 attempts, with one of the five caught stealings a pickoff, another a botched double steal.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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