THE PALLILOG
How Astros could get creative with final offer to Carlos Correa
Nov 19, 2021, 10:01 am
Would Correa accept a record-breaking short-term contract? Composite image by Jack Brame.
After surprisingly renewing vows with Justin Verlander, the Astros probably have one more "Wow!" move left in their offseason. Adding outfielder Starling Marte or shortstop Trevor Story would qualify. The 33-year-old Marte would be an excellent get if on no more than a three-year deal. Story is overrated by many because of stats accrued in Denver's mile high freak show hitting environment, but he's good and certainly projects as better than prospect Jeremy Pena. Re-upping reliever Kendall Graveman wouldn't be a "Wow!" move but retaining Ryan Pressly's number one set-up man matters.
Keeping Carlos Correa is extremely unlikely to be the "Wow!" move. If Correa is hellbent on topping Francisco Lindor's 10 year 341 million dollar contract with the Mets, he may be waiting eternally, though as with Lindor it only takes one team desperate and/or stupid enough to go there. Even if Correa "settles" for say, a nice round 300 mil, the Astros are on highly reasonable ground in refusing to bid at that level.
Losing Correa will be a bummer. Talent, leadership, charisma, etc. Correa is coming off an outstanding 2021, but it is simple truth that 2021 is his only healthy and excellent season in the last five years. It is mythology that Correa has been a non-stop stud and annual postseason monster since he exploded on the scene as a 20-year-old phenom back in 2015. He was a mediocre player in 2018 and again in the short season of 2020. His postseason production was fantastic in 2017 and 2020, meh in '18, '19, and '21.
Correa is in his prime at 27 years old, but there is essentially no chance he is as good over the second half of a 10-year contract that he was this year. It's possible Correa doesn't match his 2021 going forward. If healthy I like his chances of putting up two or three more elite seasons, but note that during Jose Altuve's far and away two best seasons he turned 26 and 27 years old. Alex Bregman's two best may have come and gone when he turned 24 and 25. In the plus-sized shortstop department, Cal Ripken had just one great season after he turned 28.
The Astros' five year 160 million dollar offer was no insult, but also not remotely close to enough to strike a deal. If the Astros would stretch to seven years 225 million that would be a more than credible final offer. If another suitor or suitors dwarf that, so be it. One last thought is offering record breaking per year money in a shorter term proposal. Three years 125 million would sync up contract expiration with Altuve and Bregman after the 2024 season and enable Correa to be a free agent again at age 30. As confident as he is, I doubt Correa would bet on himself that way.
Texans back in action this Sunday
Well, we made it! Survived an autumn weekend without a Texans game. The resiliency of the human spirit is a wonderful thing. While the Astros keep doing things to extend their dynastic era of relentless championship contention, it's back to action this weekend for Houston's 2-ring circus clown we call the Texans and Rockets. Off their open (not bye!) week the Texans likely absorb their latest beating at Tennessee. The Titans are without injured beastly running back Derrick Henry. The Texans are without a credible NFL roster. Even minus Henry, the Titans being only 10 point favorites seems low. As this column posts (Friday November 19), the Texans last road touchdown came two months ago today. That's four games without reaching the end zone. Final scores of those games: 40-0, 31-3, 31-5, 17-9.
Amazingly, as pathetic as the 1-8 Texans are, and even with a presumed loss in Nashville, they could log their second win of the season before the Rockets get theirs. At 1-14, the Rockets play at the Knicks Saturday then at the Celtics Monday. So 1-16 looms probable ahead of home games next week against the surprisingly good Bulls and the never very good Hornets. Losing those two would mean a 17 game losing streak and a 1-18 record for the Rockets when the Texans play host to the lousy Jets a week from Sunday.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Correa finished fifth in American League Most Valuable Player balloting. Shohei Ohtani rightfully won. None of Ohtani, runner-up Vlad Guerrero Jr., or third place finisher Marcus Semien sniffed the playoffs. Last time no top three AL MVP finisher was in the postseason Bush was President. George Herbert Walker Bush. 1991. Before wild cards existed. None of the National League top three played in the postseason either. In the NL that last occurred only six years ago.
2. Warren Moon turned 65 Thursday. A year ago many would have bet that by maybe 2025 he'd be thought of as the second greatest quarterback in Houston's pro football history. Warren remains safe at number one for the foreseeable future.
3. Biggest 2021 Lone Star sports embarrassments: Bronze-Kansas 57 Texas 56 Silver-Rockets Gold-Texans
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!