How Astros' season could now hinge on most unlikely of x-factors
STONE COLD 'STROS
04 August
The Astros open a 3-game series with Miami on Monday night. Composite Getty Image.
The return of Carlos Correa was supposed to energize the Houston Astros, but their weekend trip to Fenway Park told a different story.
Despite getting Correa back into the lineup alongside Jeremy Peña, the Astros offense sputtered through a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Houston scored just one run in two of the three games, continuing a troubling trend of inconsistency. Five of their last eight series have ended in a sweep — some in their favor, others not — underscoring the volatility that has defined much of their season.
One of the bigger culprits? A swing-first mentality that isn't paying off.
Since Isaac Paredes went down, manager Joe Espada’s lineup has reverted to its more aggressive roots. Jose Altuve, who recently notched a four-hit game, credited that performance to getting better pitches. But that approach has come with diminishing returns. Altuve and others are swinging early and often, but with little to show for it lately, a strategy that’s only exacerbating Houston’s offensive inconsistency.
If the bats aren’t going to carry them, pitching needs to step up and soon.
Astros x-factors
There’s some good news on that front. Spencer Arrighetti is slated to return during the Marlins series, likely in Game 2 or 3.
Spencer Arrighetti will pitch one of these two games, Joe Espada confirmed. TBD on which one. https://t.co/0uhkseIwdG
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 3, 2025
Cristian Javier is expected to need one more rehab outing before he’s ready to rejoin the rotation. Their returns couldn’t come at a better time.
With the offense struggling (Houston ranks 20th in runs scored over the last week and 29th in slugging since July 7) the Astros simply can't afford to keep patching together starts with depleted depth. Brandon Walter is dealing with an elbow issue, Lance McCullers Jr. remains sidelined with blisters, and Colton Gordon has faltered in recent outings.
Houston has done its best to tread water, but it’s clear that the current rotation mix isn’t sustainable. The Astros need Arrighetti and Javier to not just return, they need them to perform like legitimate big-league starters. Otherwise, a team built for another postseason run may find itself struggling just to stay afloat.
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The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.
The challenge?
Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.
“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”
The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.
Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.
“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.
Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.
Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.
“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.
Texans’ challenge
Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.
Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.
“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”
Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.
Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.
Hey Danny Dimes
Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.
Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.
Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.
Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.
“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.
Jacksonville’s youth movement
The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.
The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.
In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.
He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.
Tennessee time
Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.
Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.
Predicted order of finish
Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.
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