The case for (and against) one massive Astros trade deadline swing
Jul 30, 2025, 11:44 am
Reports suggests the Astros have interest in Carlos Correa. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
As the Astros ready to compete against Alex Bregman during their upcoming weekend series in Boston, the never say never, but seemingly absurd rumor floated ahead of Thursday’s five PM central time trade deadline had the Astros interested in trading for… Carlos Correa.
The Astros' interest in reuniting with Carlos Correa, presumably to play third base with Paredes out, is real, a source confirms. https://t.co/5VaYuiRWuo
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 30, 2025
Wait, what? To play third base. While that is a strong indicator that Isaac Paredes’s severe hamstring injury is season-ending, on its face the Astros reuniting with Correa is ridiculous.
Carlos Correa has been a bad player this season. As a damning, albeit imprecise frame of reference, Correa’s Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement number this season is the same as Brendan Rodgers and Zack Short. In 2024 Correa was tremendous, other than the not small detail of missing two months out injured. He was not a good player in 2023. In at all contemplating such a move the Astros would be seriously banking on Correa being rejuvenated returning to Houston. He has three seasons worth 96 million dollars remaining on the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with the Twins before the 2023 season. That’s 32 million dollars per season, which coincidentally is the same figure the Astros offered Correa when he first hit free agency after the 2021 season. Unless Jim Crane has lost every last marble, obviously the Astros would not for a second consider taking on three years 96 million to get back Correa. Even if the Twins were to send along 50 million dollars to escape as much of their present Correa obligation as they could, three years 46 million for Correa would be a dubious Astros’ move. Correa turns 31 in September.
Going forward there is no reason to expect Correa to play a better shortstop than the three years younger Jeremy Pena. Unless Isaac Paredes’s career is over or permanently hamstrung for the worse, he is the third baseman in 2026. It would be absurd to think Paredes could handle second base well. Correa sliding to second wouldn’t make sense either, unless Brice Matthews is to be a flop or traded. UPDATE: The Astros' trade for Ramon Urias rendered any Correa talk (even more) non-sensical.
Framber Valdez has been one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball for going on five years now. As virtually all Astros fans know Framber becomes a free agent after the season. Taking on significant multi-year money in Correa if/while unwilling to pay at least near market rate for an elite starting pitcher would be plain ol’ stupid. Without Valdez the Astros’ 2026 starting rotation projects as Hunter Brown and nothing else but a bunch of crossed fingers and held breath. Mega-dollars pitching contracts are fraught with more risk than those for everyday players (see McCullers, Lance), but managing risk (which includes taking on some) is part of the game. Valdez will be 32 years old when he throws his first pitch next season.
Fenway bound
Back to Beantown Breggy. He and Correa may have had an interesting pregame conversation before the Red Sox and Twins finished up their series Wednesday. Despite missing two months because of a quadriceps injury, Bregman is having what projects as his best full season since his monstrous 2019 American League Most Valuable Player runner-up campaign. You knoooooow he would love to batter the Astros this weekend. The Astros arrive at Fenway Park with Bregman swinging the bat well. He homered in back-to-back games Sunday and Monday giving him 14 in 64 games played. Over 150 games that projects as 32 homers. Bregman has an interesting decision looming. He can opt in to staying with Boston for a whopping 40 million dollars next season, and have the same option for 2027 after next season. Bregman can also opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency. His 40 million dollar salary is crazy and he wouldn’t get that in a five or six year deal (unless some team is nutso and/or totally desperate). Could agent Scott Boras get Bregman 200 million over six (33.33 per season) or close? That’s what Correa re-upped with Minnesota for and the Twins have serious regret about it.
On the horizon
It’s a challenging three-stops road trip at hand for the Astros. After the three games in Boston it’s down to Miami for three. Since staggering from the gate to a 24-40 record, the Marlins have a better record than the Astros over the same time frame. From June 10 forward, in the National League only the Milwaukee Brewers have a better record than the Marlins. From Miami the Astros fly back north for three at the Yankees. To be determined whether Aaron Judge is back from injury by then. It looks doubtful. If the Astros are unable to hold on and win the American League West, it’s possible they will have to finish ahead of at either the Yanks or BoSox to secure a Wild Card. After finishing the trip, the Astros return home to face Bregman as an opponent in Houston for the first time.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Astros are looking to stop the bleeding.
After dropping their fifth straight game Monday night, and their 10th in the past 11 at Daikin Park, the American League West leaders turn to right-hander Jason Alexander on Tuesday night to face the Washington Nationals in the second game of the series.
Houston still sits atop the division at 60-47, but the recent slide has begun to test the edges of their depth and momentum. They’ll try to steady things against a Nationals team that’s playing better than its record suggests. Washington has won six of its last 10, including Monday’s 2-1 series-opening victory, and arrives with a bit of confidence behind starter Mike Soroka.
Alexander (1-1, 8.14 ERA) will make his third start of the season for Houston and is still looking for consistency after a bumpy start to his campaign. The Nationals counter with Soroka (3-8, 4.85 ERA), who has quietly put together a string of solid outings while showing improved command. Soroka has struck out 83 and posted a 1.13 WHIP over 78 innings.
Offensively, both teams have had their share of struggles of late. The Astros have hit just .241 over their past 10 games and have been outscored by 13 runs during that stretch. On Monday, they managed just one run for the third straight contest, wasting a 12-strikeout night from Framber Valdez.
Veteran second baseman Jose Altuve remains a key contributor with 17 doubles and 17 home runs, while Christian Walker has been one of Houston’s more reliable bats lately, going 12-for-37 over the past 10 games.
For Washington, Luis Garcia has tallied 22 doubles and 45 RBIs on the year, and Josh Bell has chipped in with two homers in his last 10 outings.
The Astros are still favored to bounce back — listed as -142 favorites by BetMGM — but with the recent home woes and a struggling rotation, nothing seems guaranteed right now in Houston. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Lineup takeaways
What is Joe Espada doing to try to snap the losing streak? He'll start with Taylor Trammell leading off and playing left field, which has Jose Altuve as the DH and hitting second. Christian Walker will once again hit third, with Cam Smith (RF) back in the cleanup spot after a day off.
Jacob Melton is returns to center field and will hit fifth, followed by catcher Yainer Diaz and Mauricio Dubon (3B).
Espada, looking to shake things up and provide the offense with a spark, goes with Shay Whitcomb over Brice Matthews at second base, and Zack Short (SS) will hit ninth.
Expecto Patronum ✨Lineup✨
⚾️: 7:10pm
🏟️: Closed
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— Houston Astros (@astros) July 29, 2025
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