THE PALLILOG
The case for (and against) one massive Astros trade deadline swing
Jul 30, 2025, 11:44 am
Reports suggests the Astros have interest in Carlos Correa. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
As the Astros ready to compete against Alex Bregman during their upcoming weekend series in Boston, the never say never, but seemingly absurd rumor floated ahead of Thursday’s five PM central time trade deadline had the Astros interested in trading for… Carlos Correa.
The Astros' interest in reuniting with Carlos Correa, presumably to play third base with Paredes out, is real, a source confirms. https://t.co/5VaYuiRWuo
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 30, 2025
Wait, what? To play third base. While that is a strong indicator that Isaac Paredes’s severe hamstring injury is season-ending, on its face the Astros reuniting with Correa is ridiculous.
Carlos Correa has been a bad player this season. As a damning, albeit imprecise frame of reference, Correa’s Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement number this season is the same as Brendan Rodgers and Zack Short. In 2024 Correa was tremendous, other than the not small detail of missing two months out injured. He was not a good player in 2023. In at all contemplating such a move the Astros would be seriously banking on Correa being rejuvenated returning to Houston. He has three seasons worth 96 million dollars remaining on the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with the Twins before the 2023 season. That’s 32 million dollars per season, which coincidentally is the same figure the Astros offered Correa when he first hit free agency after the 2021 season. Unless Jim Crane has lost every last marble, obviously the Astros would not for a second consider taking on three years 96 million to get back Correa. Even if the Twins were to send along 50 million dollars to escape as much of their present Correa obligation as they could, three years 46 million for Correa would be a dubious Astros’ move. Correa turns 31 in September.
Going forward there is no reason to expect Correa to play a better shortstop than the three years younger Jeremy Pena. Unless Isaac Paredes’s career is over or permanently hamstrung for the worse, he is the third baseman in 2026. It would be absurd to think Paredes could handle second base well. Correa sliding to second wouldn’t make sense either, unless Brice Matthews is to be a flop or traded.
UPDATE: The Astros' trade for Ramon Urias seemingly rendered any Correa talk nonsensical.
UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: Or not.
Framber Valdez has been one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball for going on five years now. As virtually all Astros fans know Framber becomes a free agent after the season. Taking on significant multi-year money in Correa if/while unwilling to pay at least near market rate for an elite starting pitcher would be plain ol’ stupid. Without Valdez the Astros’ 2026 starting rotation projects as Hunter Brown and nothing else but a bunch of crossed fingers and held breath. Mega-dollars pitching contracts are fraught with more risk than those for everyday players (see McCullers, Lance), but managing risk (which includes taking on some) is part of the game. Valdez will be 32 years old when he throws his first pitch next season.
Fenway bound
Back to Beantown Breggy. He and Correa may have had an interesting pregame conversation before the Red Sox and Twins finished up their series Wednesday. Despite missing two months because of a quadriceps injury, Bregman is having what projects as his best full season since his monstrous 2019 American League Most Valuable Player runner-up campaign. You knoooooow he would love to batter the Astros this weekend. The Astros arrive at Fenway Park with Bregman swinging the bat well. He homered in back-to-back games Sunday and Monday giving him 14 in 64 games played. Over 150 games that projects as 32 homers. Bregman has an interesting decision looming. He can opt in to staying with Boston for a whopping 40 million dollars next season, and have the same option for 2027 after next season. Bregman can also opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency. His 40 million dollar salary is crazy and he wouldn’t get that in a five or six year deal (unless some team is nutso and/or totally desperate). Could agent Scott Boras get Bregman 200 million over six (33.33 per season) or close? That’s what Correa re-upped with Minnesota for and the Twins have serious regret about it.
On the horizon
It’s a challenging three-stops road trip at hand for the Astros. After the three games in Boston it’s down to Miami for three. Since staggering from the gate to a 24-40 record, the Marlins have a better record than the Astros over the same time frame. From June 10 forward, in the National League only the Milwaukee Brewers have a better record than the Marlins. From Miami the Astros fly back north for three at the Yankees. To be determined whether Aaron Judge is back from injury by then. It looks doubtful. If the Astros are unable to hold on and win the American League West, it’s possible they will have to finish ahead of at either the Yanks or BoSox to secure a Wild Card. After finishing the trip, the Astros return home to face Bregman as an opponent in Houston for the first time.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.
The challenge?
Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.
“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”
The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.
Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.
“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.
Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.
Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.
“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.
Texans’ challenge
Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.
Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.
“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”
Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.
Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.
Hey Danny Dimes
Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.
Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.
Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.
Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.
“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.
Jacksonville’s youth movement
The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.
The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.
In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.
He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.
Tennessee time
Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.
Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.
Predicted order of finish
Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.