EVERY-THING SPORTS
Dirty laundry aside, there's no denying who's running the show in Houston
Nov 16, 2022, 3:57 pm
It's his way or the highway. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
bench astros (1)
Looking back on the 2022 Astros’ season, most will have fond memories of how it ended: a World Series win to prove the haters and doubters wrong. This win secured a legacy or dynasty for the team. It validated the 2017 title by erasing the cloud of suspicion that the sole reason they won in 2017 was by cheating. The tinfoil hat wearing crowd can suck it! This team won fair and square!
While there are plenty of things to remember about this past season, one of the things that I’ll remember about is that Jim Crane carries the biggest stick on Crawford Street. Don’t believe me? Ask James Click. Hell, ask anyone in that organization. They’ll gladly tell you who’s in charge and who has final say on major decisions.
After the sign stealing scandal and its subsequent fallout/punishments were handed down, Crane took a more hands-on approach. He hired Dusty Baker as manager. This move was seen as bringing in an old school baseball guy who’s known to be a players’ manager. He then hired Click to be his general manager. Click came from Tampa Bay where their philosophy is low and slow when it comes to building a winner.
Click’s low and slow approach (coupled with analytics), didn’t always jive with Dusty’s old school ways. However, when Crane wanted to make splash moves, Click resisted. That is where the rift began. That’s also where Click sealed his fate as Astros’ GM.
When the boss whose name appears on your paycheck stub says he wants something done, the smart thing would be to make it happen. Unless there’s a danger to your life or the organization, you do what you’re told to do. Click chose to remain steadfast in his ways. Nothing wrong with building through the draft, making small trades, keeping payroll down, and using/relying on analytics. Those moves are good for building a team into a winner. The Astros were built to win already. Crane wanted Click to make moves he felt would keep the winning going immediately. Click wanted to make moves he felt had long-term sustainability. In the end, the man who has the billions won the pissing match over the guy who works for him.
Michael Schwab reported this rift in detail on November 13. He outlined the exact instances in which he believed Click earned his exit from the franchise. I’m of the opinion Click thought he was trying to help Crane, but Crane didn’t want him to help by telling him what he should do. Crane wanted Click to help by doing what Crane ordered him to do. When Click realized Crane wasn’t going to listen, he started leaking things to the media. Of course, we may never know the true extent of how dirty the laundry really is, but we see the pile.
Houston #Astros GM James Click actually was fired. He was offered a one-year contract and raise from his $1 million salary on Monday, turned it down in pursuit of a longer contract, and was dismissed Friday after publicly airing his grievances at the GM meetings.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 11, 2022
It's looking like Crane will now have a GM by committee this season. His hope will be to land David Stearns. He’s the boy wonder from the Jeff Luhnow tree that Crane has his eyes on, but the Brewers are making him honor the last year of his contract. Another report Schwab put out there was that Crane has possibly been in contact with former manager A.J. Hinch to come aboard as GM. THAT would be an interesting turn of events! ESPN 97.5’s Joel Blank and Paul Gallant did a video with an intriguing look at the next GM. Buckle up folks! This could be eventful!
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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