Astros complete the series sweep with win in extra innings

Astros daily report presented by APG&E: 3 hits from the 6-4 win

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

With two wins in the books, the Astros looked for the sweep on Sunday afternoon with Gerrit Cole on the mound. Here is how the game went down:

Final Score (12 innings): Astros 6, A's 4.

Record: 40-20, first in the AL West.

Winning pitcher: Josh James (3-0, 4.78 ERA).

Losing pitcher: Lou Trevino (2-3, 4.25 ERA).

1) Unusual day for Cole

Gerrit Cole did not have his best stuff on Sunday but still managed to come out of it with a win. Cole was not his usual dominant self, which showed in the bottom of the second inning when he allowed the A's to go ahead 2-1 on two solo home runs.

Still, he was able to keep Oakland to just those two runs, but it came with a lot more balls in play than strikeouts, resulting in his lowest strikeout total in a game this season at four. He'd leave the game in line for the win after six innings, posting a final line of 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K.

2) Straw scores three times including the go-ahead in extras

Derek Fisher started the game with a ground-rule double to give the Astros and immediate scoring opportunity in the top of the first inning. Two outs later Yuli Gurriel would convert the opportunity, hitting an RBI-double to get the quick 1-0 lead.

Down 2-1 in the fifth, the Astros strung together some more offense by putting runners on the corners before both would score on an error-filled play to put Houston back in front 3-2. Myles Straw's speed helped manufacture another run in the seventh. Straw worked a one-out walk, stole second easily, then scored from second on an RBI-single by Derek Fisher, extending Houston's lead to 4-2.

Straw would prove vital yet again in the top of the twelfth inning, leading the inning off with a single, stealing second (yes, again), then scoring on a one-out RBI single by Michael Brantley to put Houston back in front 5-4. They'd tack on another before the inning was over on an RBI-single from Gurriel, his second RBI of the day to make it a 6-4 Houston advantage.

3) Rough start for bullpen, great finish

Will Harris, who pitched a scoreless ninth inning in the night before, was called on for the seventh during which he'd allow a solo home run to get the A's within one at 4-3. Ryan Pressly took over for the eighth inning in the one-run game, but he'd allow a rare run on a solo home run to tie the game at 4-4 before getting out of the inning.

With the game tied, it was Hector Rondon brought in for the ninth, and he'd send the game to extra innings with a scoreless inning. After already being warmed up, Roberto Osuna came in for the bottom of the tenth to extend the game further, and would do so by working around a leadoff single with three-straight strikeouts to end the inning. Josh James was next up for the bottom of the eleventh, and was able to retire the side to force yet another inning.

After getting two runs in the top of the inning, James stayed in the game to put an end to things, and did so, completing the series sweep with a scoreless inning in the bottom of the twelfth.

Up Next: Houston will continue this west coast road trip by starting a four-game series with the Mariners tomorrow at 9:00 PM. Corbin Martin (1-1, 5.51 ERA) will be on the mound for the Astros looking to rebound from a few rough starts. Wade LeBlanc (2-2, 6.99 ERA) will pitch for the Mariners.

The Astros daily report is presented by APG&E.

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Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

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