Astros get the walk-off win in extra innings

Astros daily report presented by APG&E: 3 hits from the 4-3 win

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Back at home after a 6-1 road trip including the 14th inning win over the Mariners on Thursday, the Astros looked to open a homestand on a good note with a victory in the first of three games against the struggling Orioles. Here's how Friday night's game went:

Final Score (11 innings): Astros 4, Orioles 3.

Record: 44-21, first in the AL West.

Winning pitcher: Cionel Perez (1-0, 0.00 ERA).

Losing pitcher: Branden Kline (1-3, 5.89 ERA).

1) Bad start, great finish for Cole 

Gerrit Cole started his night with a near-disastrous first inning, allowing Baltimore to score two quick runs in an inning with an error hit batter, and two hits which gave the Orioles an immediate 2-0 lead. Cole would get dinged again in the third after a solo home run extended the deficit to 3-0.

Cole would lock in and dominate after that, though, allowing just one hit the rest of his night, a night where he would throw 113 pitches over seven innings and hit a season-high in strikeouts. His final line: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14K.

2) Reddick and Kemp tie it in the fifth, Chirinos walks it off in the eleventh

After a slow offensive start and watching the Orioles build a 3-0 lead, Josh Reddick finally broke through in the fifth inning with a leadoff solo home run to trim the lead to 3-1. One out later, Tyler White worked a walk before Tony Kemp connected and launched a two-run bomb into the upper deck in right-field to tie the game at 3-3.

After missing their chance to walk it off in the bottom of the ninth and tenth, Houston would eventually get the walk-off in the bottom of the eleventh on an RBI from Robinson Chirinos.

3) Cionel Perez supports a fatigued bullpen 

After logging a lot of innings on the recent road trip, including the 14-inning game in Seattle on Thursday, the bullpen looked to keep Baltimore off the board and give Houston's offense a chance to go-ahead. Hector Rondon took over for Gerrit Cole in the eighth and worked around a two-out single for a scoreless inning.

Cionel Perez, who was called up after Brady Rodgers was optioned down to AAA, was called on for the ninth inning and was able to retire the Orioles in order. After the offense came up empty in the bottom half of the inning, Perez returned for the top of the tenth and would make it back-to-back 1-2-3 innings. He'd return for another inning in the eleventh making it nine batters sat down in a row and setting up the Astros for their eventual walk-off.

Up Next: Houston and Baltimore will continue this series tomorrow with a Saturday afternoon game starting at 3:10 PM. With Corbin Martin's move back to AAA, Framber Valdez (2-2, 3.12 ERA) will get at least one start in the rotation as Houston tries to fill the starter spot on the roster originally vacated by Collin McHugh. He'll go up against Andrew Cashner (6-2, 5.04 ERA) for the Orioles.

The Astros daily report is presented by APG&E.

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Tucker looks like the real deal. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kyle Tucker finally had his breakout season in 2020. The 23-year-old flashed potential to be a legitimate five-tool threat. He slashed .268/.325/.512, swiped eight bags, and played above average defense. Is Tucker's performance sustainable? Not only that, but is there room for growth?

Hard Hit % - 44.5%

Barrel % - 9.1%

K % - 20.2%

BB % - 7.9%
Chase % - 26.2%

The first thing to realize with Kyle Tucker is the small sample size at the MLB level. Despite appearing in three separate seasons, he's played in a total of 108 games, which is obviously quite a bit shy of even one full season. He also has an extremely unique swing that you wouldn't teach to anybody, but it "works" for him. This makes him a tough hitter to judge, as it's uncomfortable judging mechanics that work for him, and it's uncomfortable judging numbers that haven't had time to develop trends.

Hard Hit, Barrel, and Chase numbers are unavailable for the minors, but walk and strikeouts percentages are. This creates the ability to at least look at one trend.

Tucker broke onto the scene in 2018 with a monstrous season for AAA Fresno, the Astros affiliate at the time. In 2018, Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. He had an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% that season. In 2019, Tucker struck out a little bit more (21.6%) but also walked a little bit more (11.2%). Tucker's 20.2% K% in 2020 is more in line with his minor league K%, indicating he's adjusted to major league pitching.

Tucker essentially put the pieces of contact ability and quality of contact from his previous MLB stints together in 2020. In 2018, Tucker didn't strike out very much (18.1% K%), but his 3.9% Barrel % didn't strike fear in any opponent.

In 2019, Tucker had a 12.8% Barrel %, and his 92 MPH average exit velocity is the best of his three seasons in MLB, but he struck out 27.8% of the time and walked just 5.6% of the time.

In 2020, there's a marriage between the two. His K% and BB% aren't as good as his 2018 marks, but they're better than his 2019 marks. His exit velocity and Barrel % aren't as good as his 2019 marks, but they're better than his 2018 marks. Tucker became a hitter that was able to do more damage without sacrificing consistency.

Tucker had a xBA of .267, which is right in line with his .268 average. His .459 xSLG lags behind his .512 actual SLG, but it isn't a catastrophic drop. The version of Tucker Astros fans saw is essentially who he is, but how does he improve?

What really unlocked Tucker in 2020 was a change in his setup.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here he is on August 2nd against the Angels. As you can see, he's standing pretty straight up, and he has a "neutral" stance. Following the game on Aug. 2, Tucker was batting .200/.250/.300 with no homers.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here's Tucker on August 6th, just a few days later. He's started to close off his stance just a bit, but he's still pretty neutral, and he has a little more forward body lean with his torso. Following the game on Aug. 6, he was batting .214/.267/.357 with a homer.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Now, here's Tucker on August 10th. His stance is considerably closed off, and he's maintaining the forward body lean he adopted on August 6th. Following the game on Aug. 10, Tucker was batting .190/.230/.328. It would be the last time any of those numbers would be that low the rest of the year. He maintained that stance for the rest of the season, and he finished the month of August hitting .272/.333/.588.

The swing change allowed him to be a factor on the outside pitch. Tucker would pull off on his front side, which made it tough for him to keep balls fair on the pull side. He'd often yank inside fastballs into the stands down the right field line. It also made him uncompetitive on outside strikes, as he'd either swing-and-miss, or roll them over into the shift.

After he made the change, Tucker started steering inside pitches fair, and he was able to do something with pitches on the outer third.

The next step is finding a way to continue to diversify his batted ball profile. Tucker's pull percentage in 2020 was 47%. That's a higher pull % than guys like Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson. It was only 1% lower than Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo.

The one dimensional batted ball profile allows teams to shift Tucker aggressively. Teams shifted Tucker in 74% of his at-bats. His wOBA against the shift is .304. In AB's where teams didn't shift him, Tucker had a .455 wOBA. The shift hurts Tucker more than most as well, because he hits the ball on the ground 39% of the time. Gallo and Olson hit it on the ground 32% and 35% of the time respectively.

Lastly, Tucker's performance on breaking balls leaves a lot to be desired. He crushes fastballs, as he batted .303 with a .574 SLG against fastballs in 2020, with a .292 xBA and .528 xSLG. His .208 AVG and .396 SLG against breaking balls aren't very good, and his .209 xBA and .340 xSLG don't tell a prettier story. His 32% whiff % against breaking balls is nearly double his whiff % on fastballs.

If Tucker can learn to be more competitive against breaking balls and learn to use the whole field, then he'll be a really scary hitter. If he doesn't, teams will be able to gameplan for him, and he'll see streaky production similar to other one dimensional hitters like Matt Carpenter and the aforementioned Gallo and Olson.

While the bat may be streaky, Tucker brings it with the glove and on the bases. He had 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in the outfield in 2020, a 0.6 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and he was plus-4 in Outs Above Average. His well above average speed and instincts give him the ability to be a rangy outfielder and dangerous baserunner.

Tucker had a breakout season in 2020, but there's still changes left to be made if he wants to be a breakout star and not a one hit wonder.

This is part four of an offseason series covering the 2020 Houston Astros. Be sure to check out parts 1-3 on SportsMap.

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