They've won the division, but there's more to play for
Astros storylines for the final week of the regular season
Sep 23, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images
With the lopsided victory on Sunday against the Angels, the Astros were able to secure an AL West championship for the third straight season. While that may have concluded the battle for a spot in the divisional round of the playoffs, it left a few important chapters to be written to finish off the book that is the regular season:
Can Bregman beat out Trout for MVP?
On September 7th, no one would have told you differently that Mike Trout was going to be the AL MVP. That date, however, was the last time he saw the field, opening the door for at least talks that someone could challenge his season numbers and position on top of the polls.
That someone has been Alex Bregman. According to the poll reported on September 10th, before Trout announced he would be sidelined for the rest of the season, the Angels' outfielder received all first-place votes while Houston's third baseman took home all second-place votes. I would venture a guess that if there were to be another poll done today, Bregman would already have won over some of those first-place votes.
Before Sunday's game where Alex Bregman went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer, this was the comparison between Trout and Bregman, offensively:
| PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OBPS | WAR | |
| Mike Trout | 600 | 45 | 110 | 104 | 11 | 18.3% | 20.0% | .291 | .438 | .645 | 1.083 | 8.6 |
| Alex Bregman | 659 | 39 | 116 | 106 | 5 | 17.0% | 12.1% | .294 | .419 | .582 | 1.001 | 7.7 |
Of course, these are just the main offensive numbers, and defense along with some other intangibles go into the voting, but it's clear that Alex Bregman is at least making a case. He likely won't catch Trout in WAR or stolen bases, but if he can pass Trout in some of these other numbers with a terrific week at the plate, could he win over some voters considering his numbers will be with a non-insignificant amount of plate appearances more than Trout has logged with his injuries this year?
Which Astro will finish as the favorite for Cy Young?
While Bregman is going up against one of the best players in the league that is on a division rival, the two remaining AL Cy Young candidates are teammates and friends: Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. As of now, Justin Verlander is still the leader in the running; however, it's not over yet.
Verlander is being used cautiously down the stretch, as seen in his last couple of starts where he kept under a 100 pitch count, preventing him from going deep into games. Still, short of a complete blowup in his final start, it would take a phenomenal two-game performance by Gerrit Cole to catch and pass his team's ace.
Verlander may not have as many strikeouts as Cole (288 vs. 302), but his 2.53 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .172 BAA over 33 starts in 2019 are incredible. That's not to say Cole isn't close, after 31 starts and with two to go he has a 2.61 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 1.89 BAA, but Verlander's resume this year is just too hard to pass up. Cole does still have two starts left, though, where if he can continue his streak of double-digit strikeouts while shutting out the weaker teams he's facing, he could make it close.
Either way, Houston is going to take home a Cy Young award in 2019 after Verlander controversially came second to Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018.
What will the new franchise record for wins be?
In 2018 the Astros finished with the best record in franchise history at 103-59. With six games to go in 2019, they sit a game shy of matching that in the win column at 102-52. At this point, it's not a matter of will they set a new record, but by how much.
Their remaining games consist of a six-game trip to the west coast to take on the Mariners in Seattle for two and then a four-game series with the Angels in Los Angeles to put a bow on the first 162. No matter that the two teams are well out of the running and may have their lineups peppered with some prospects out for some major-league exposure, the Astros are still a combined 27-5 against these two teams so far this year.
If they win out, which is a very probable outcome, they will finish 108-52. If Houston sputters to the finish line, I still can't imagine them losing out. The 2019 Astros should go down as one of the best regular-season teams in the club's history.
Can Houston hold off the Yankees and Dodgers for home-field advantage?
After Sunday's games, the top of the MLB overall standings looks like this:
Astros (102-54) -
Yankees (102-55) 0.5 GB
Dodgers (100-56) 2.0 GB
As I mentioned earlier, Houston has a great schedule in the final week to hold on to their current lead over New York in the American League and the Dodgers for the overall record. They will play one more game (6) than the Yankees (5), but New York will have two tough games in Tampa Bay against the Rays who are currently trying to hold on to the second Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, will finish their schedule on the road as well, albeit against some easier opponents in the Padres and Giants. As has been the case for several weeks now, the Astros must take care of business to ensure that they stay in front of New York, who will be a tough opponent in general, especially in their home stadium in October.
The Astros have accomplished their goals to this point, which includes winning their division. Now, they need to finish what they started to lock up home-field advantage and maybe secure some individual awards along the way. Despite all of that, though, the next goal is not having more games at home than anyone else, or an MVP or Cy Young; it's lifting the Commissioner's trophy after winning the World Series.
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After dropping a frustrating series to the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros find themselves in a familiar position—searching for answers, but still within striking distance. Despite their inconsistency, Houston sits just three games behind the AL West-leading Mariners, who are currently 7 games over .500 and riding an 8-2 stretch. For as up-and-down as the Astros have been, the division remains tantalizingly close.
That inconsistency was on full display throughout the White Sox series. Jake Meyers and Zach Dezenzo each played the roles of both hero and heartbreaker. Dezenzo launched a massive home run in Game 3, a moment that energized the dugout and briefly shifted momentum. But his costly defensive error later in the game flipped the script. Meyers was a spark plug in Houston’s lone win, delivering a clutch performance at the plate, only to run the team out of a rally in the finale when he was picked off second—right before Jeremy Peña ripped what would have been an RBI single.
Jose Altuve’s struggles are quietly becoming more worrisome. He’s recorded just one multi-hit game since April 19 and has only one homer since April 8. On Sunday, he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had grinded through a 33-pitch inning—a decision that raised questions about his awareness in a veteran moment. Should manager Joe Espada have reminded Altuve of the situation? Or is this on Altuve, who should have known what to do as one of the team leaders?
Signs of life
There are flickers of life from the bats. Last week, Houston's team OPS was an underwhelming .667 (23rd in MLB), with a slugging percentage of .357 (25th). They've nudged those numbers up to .684 (19th) and .370 (21st), respectively. It’s modest progress, but enough to suggest this offense might be trending in the right direction. Still, their 5-5 record over the last 10 games feels emblematic of who they are right now—a .500 team with both talent and flaws.
Looking ahead
The upcoming schedule could be a turning point. Three of the next five opponents have losing records, and none of them are elite. This stretch offers a prime opportunity for Houston to finally build momentum and close the gap in the division—assuming the Mariners cool off from their current tear, which seems inevitable given their unsustainable 8-2 pace.
McCullers is officially back!
Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022 and, despite being limited to 3.2 innings due to command issues (three walks and a hit batter), there were encouraging signs. His velocity was there, and the stuff looked sharp. It’s a start, and perhaps a step toward stabilizing a rotation that still needs length.
Steering the ship
Manager Joe Espada, however, continues to draw scrutiny. His decision-making in the finale raised eyebrows again. Giving Isaac Paredes a day off when Yordan Alvarez was already sitting left the lineup depleted. Rather than using promising young infielder/outfielder Cam Smith, he opted for Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers—a defensive combo that didn't inspire confidence. It feels at times like Espada isn’t prioritizing winning the final game of a series, a pattern that could haunt the team down the stretch.
The plot thickens
Meanwhile, Christian Walker’s slump is dragging on. He went 0-for-5 twice in the last two series and looks out of sync at the plate. The Astros need more from their power hitters if they hope to make a real run. And with Alvarez now heading to the IL with hand inflammation, runs will be even harder to come by.
All told, this team still feels like one hovering just above or below .500. But in a division that remains wide open, the path forward is clear: play better, hope the Mariners come back to earth, and capitalize on a soft schedule. The race is far from over—but it’s time for Houston to start acting like contenders.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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