FREE AGENCY PREVIEW
With a busy offseason ahead, here are some big names that could join the Astros
Sep 23, 2022, 12:46 pm
FREE AGENCY PREVIEW
With the division won and a likely top seed clinch in the coming days, the Astros are rightly focused on finishing the regular season strong and heading into the postseason with as much momentum as they can bring with them. Still, that won't stop the Hot Stove chatter that will likely pick up steam quickly as we near the offseason.
In recent years, Houston has done a great job of replacing top-tier talent that many would've deemed irreplaceable at the time. The likes of George Springer and Carlos Correa, dear to the hearts of Astros fans, made bittersweet departures, yet the Astros have found the right combination of players to fill those voids.
How long can that be sustained, though? A recent ranking of farm systems put the Astros 29th, better than only the Angels, in terms of their minor-league talent pool. The draft pick hits handed down due to the sign-stealing scandal have been a part of that. So, if it is indeed the case that the well is running dry in terms of home-grown talent, what if the Astros shifted strategy and started being more aggressive in the free agent market?
Houston has several players hitting free agency themselves
Like in the last few years, the Astros will see some turnover this offseason, though to which degree will be determined by who they choose to pick up options or give offers high enough to get re-signings.
Justin Verlander will likely not execute his half of the mutual option, which would bring him back to Houston for $25 million. The presumptive Cy Young winner will probably get much more, whether with Houston in a new contract or elsewhere.
The Astros are in line to lose one of their catchers, with the rental period for Christian Vázquez ending after this season. Yuli Gurriel will also be hitting the market and potentially playing for a team other than Houston for the first time should someone else give him a contract offer he accepts.
Michael Brantley, absent most of this season with an injury, will also see his time with the Astros coming to an end if a new contract doesn't happen. Pair those players leaving potential holes in the roster, along with a strong free agent class this offseason, and what could the 2023 Houston Astros look like if they make some big moves?
Time for upgrades?
Let's assume for these scenarios that the Astros don't work out deals to re-sign some of the players mentioned earlier. With Vázquez gone, who do the Astros turn to at catcher besides Martin Maldonado? Sure, they have some young talent available, like Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz, but what if they want to go further?
The Astros were already part of the rumor mill for Chicago Cubs' Wilson Contreras at this year's trade deadline. He shapes up to be the top catcher available this offseason, so it could make sense for Houston to finally get him on their team. If Gurriel goes elsewhere, a few potential players could also fill his spot, like 2020 AL MVP José Abreu.
To replace Brantley as an outfielder and decent bat, the Astros could take their pick from a long list of outfielders, such as Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo, and Mitch Haniger, to name a few. Still, the Astros could really make some waves if they bring in some even bigger names.
The huge splashes that would shake things up
Let's talk about the names that will be the focal point of the Hot Stove, though. Jeremy Peña had big shoes to fill this season, and in his first full year at the shortstop position, he has been more than adequate. But what if Carlos Correa opts out of his contract with the Twins, and a potential reunion is in order? Or, what if Houston goes even further and has a chance to go after some of the league's best, like Trea Turner?
There's no question that Houston's pitching in 2022 has been one of, if not the best, staff in all of baseball. If Verlander opts out to get a bigger payday, could the Astros try to get a new elite-tier ace to lead their rotation? Two names could cause a frenzy; Jacob DeGrom and Carlos Rodón, who both have opt-outs available if they think they could garner more money elsewhere.
Then, there's the ultimate signing that some team will get ahead of 2023, and that's Aaron Judge. The Yankees made a costly mistake by not working out a deal with him before this season, as he has gone on to put together one of the best seasons ever. While there may be some lingering animosity on his end from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, what if, and it's a big if, he buries that hatchet? What if he wants to really stick it to his former team and join the side of the rivalry that has been a thorn in New York's side in recent postseasons?
These scenarios may be, and in the case of Judge likely is, a pipe dream in some cases, but there's no question that the Astros will need to make some moves this winter if they want to keep their championship window open as wide as it is today.
The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.
As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.
Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.
Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.
But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.
More to the story
Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.
So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
___________________________
*ChatGPT assisted.
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!