THE PALLILOG

Astros in command position to have home-field advantage in ALDS

Astros Carlos Correa
Astros face the lowly Diamondbacks next. Composite image by Jack Brame.

If the Texans reeeeally want to open some eyes, opportunity knocks for them Sunday in Cleveland. They had a solid and easy opening win over the Jaguars, but Jacksonville is pitiful. The Browns are AFC contenders coming off an 11-5 2020 season, and in their opener led the Chiefs in Kansas City 22-10 before seeing the game slip from their grasp (or having Pat Mahomes rip it from that grasp). The Browns are favored by 12 and a half, making the Texans the biggest underdog in the NFL this week. I expect the Texans to lose along the lines of 27-13, but merely note that the only way to pull off a huge upset is to be a huge underdog.

The rest of the AFC South fell on its face week one. The Titans (at Seattle), Colts (home vs. the Rams), and Jaguars (home vs. the Broncos) are all underdogs this week. If the Texans are 2-0 while everyone else in the division is 0-2…

Astros take on the D'Backs

Off taking three out of four in Arlington from the awful Rangers the Astros and the White Sox losing two straight at home to the Angels, the Astros are in command position to at minimum have home-field advantage in their American League Division Series. They lead the Chisox by three games and have the tiebreaker sewn up. The Astros trail the Rays by four games for the best record in AL. This weekend at Minute Maid Park the Astros get the even worse than the Rangers Arizona Diamondbacks. The D'Backs are 47-99. With a 4-12 finishing kick they can match their franchise record for losses, put up in 2004. The great Randy Johnson went 16-14 that season for a team that went 51-111. The Big Unit was clearly the best pitcher in the National League, but lost out on the Cy Young Award to Roger Clemens who won his seventh. The Rocket went 18-4 for the Astros and was incredible, but clearly not as good as Johnson was. Had Johnson won the Cy he would have six as would Clemens. But that's ok, because Roger got jobbed out of a Cy Young he absolutely deserved in 1990, another he probably deserved in 1992, and a third for which he had a strong case with the Astros in 2005. At 43 years old in mid-August of '05 Clemens had an earned run average of 1.32 before "fading" to a league leading 1.87 finish. Whatever one believes of went into Clemens's late career brilliance, he was incredible to watch.

Turn back the clock

As the Astros close in on their fifth straight postseason appearance, next week takes us to the 35th anniversary of the 1986 Astros securing their playoff spot. September 23, 24, and 25 of 1986 has to rank at or near the top of the most fun regular season three day stretches in franchise history.

On the 23rd Jim Deshaies threw a two hit shutout as the Astros shutout the Dodgers 4-0. That was the game in which Deshaies set a Major League record by striking out the first eight opposition batters (the Marlins' Pablo Lopez broke the record this year by striking out the first nine Braves he faced July 11). Dodger manager Tommy Lasorda was so flustered he pinch hit for his pitcher in the third inning with two out and nobody on in a 2-0 game. Pinch-hitter Larry See popped to second.

The next night Nolan Ryan fired eight innings of one hit ball (reliever Charlie Kerfeld gave up a hit in the ninth) as the Astros blanked the Giants 6-0.

The following afternoon Mike Scott threw his National League West Division clinching no-hitter in the Astros 2-0 win over the Giants.

Those Astros would lose an epic National League Championship Series to the New York Mets. ESPN's latest 30 for 30 debuted this week, a four-parter about the '86 Mets called "Once Upon A Time In Queens." It's phenomenal, with a good chunk of part three about the Mets-Astros LCS. Worth a watch, whether as an Astro fan of that time wanting to work up some fresh bile for the Mets of that time, or as a period piece.

Buzzer Beaters

1. Salute to Sal. Royals' catcher Salvador Perez hit his 45th home run of the season Thursday, tying Johnny Bench's single season homer record for a player who is primarily a catcher. Bench did it as part of a vaunted Cincinnati lineup that became known as the Big Red Machine. Perez's Kansas City team is 12th among 15 American League teams in runs scored, dead last in the AL in homers.

2. So John Wall and the Rockets evidently agree that his playing for them this season is of no interest. Finding a trade sucker (errrr, partner) to take the two seasons nearly 92 million guaranteed dollars left on Wall's deal without the Rockets having to trade away draft picks and/or take back other absurd contracts? Good luck.

3. Greatest Browns: Bronze-Bad, Bad Leroy Silver-Otto Graham Gold-Jim

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Vegas likes Houston. Composite Getty Image.

Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.

“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.

While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.

And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.

Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.

The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.

Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.

New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.

Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.

Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.

And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.

HOW THEY PROJECT

1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.

2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.

4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.

5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.

OLD SKIPPERS

When the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.

RELIEF HELP

Several new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.

Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.

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