THE PALLILOG
Astros in command position to have home-field advantage in ALDS
Sep 17, 2021, 9:52 am
Astros face the lowly Diamondbacks next. Composite image by Jack Brame.
If the Texans reeeeally want to open some eyes, opportunity knocks for them Sunday in Cleveland. They had a solid and easy opening win over the Jaguars, but Jacksonville is pitiful. The Browns are AFC contenders coming off an 11-5 2020 season, and in their opener led the Chiefs in Kansas City 22-10 before seeing the game slip from their grasp (or having Pat Mahomes rip it from that grasp). The Browns are favored by 12 and a half, making the Texans the biggest underdog in the NFL this week. I expect the Texans to lose along the lines of 27-13, but merely note that the only way to pull off a huge upset is to be a huge underdog.
The rest of the AFC South fell on its face week one. The Titans (at Seattle), Colts (home vs. the Rams), and Jaguars (home vs. the Broncos) are all underdogs this week. If the Texans are 2-0 while everyone else in the division is 0-2…
Astros take on the D'Backs
Off taking three out of four in Arlington from the awful Rangers the Astros and the White Sox losing two straight at home to the Angels, the Astros are in command position to at minimum have home-field advantage in their American League Division Series. They lead the Chisox by three games and have the tiebreaker sewn up. The Astros trail the Rays by four games for the best record in AL. This weekend at Minute Maid Park the Astros get the even worse than the Rangers Arizona Diamondbacks. The D'Backs are 47-99. With a 4-12 finishing kick they can match their franchise record for losses, put up in 2004. The great Randy Johnson went 16-14 that season for a team that went 51-111. The Big Unit was clearly the best pitcher in the National League, but lost out on the Cy Young Award to Roger Clemens who won his seventh. The Rocket went 18-4 for the Astros and was incredible, but clearly not as good as Johnson was. Had Johnson won the Cy he would have six as would Clemens. But that's ok, because Roger got jobbed out of a Cy Young he absolutely deserved in 1990, another he probably deserved in 1992, and a third for which he had a strong case with the Astros in 2005. At 43 years old in mid-August of '05 Clemens had an earned run average of 1.32 before "fading" to a league leading 1.87 finish. Whatever one believes of went into Clemens's late career brilliance, he was incredible to watch.
Turn back the clock
As the Astros close in on their fifth straight postseason appearance, next week takes us to the 35th anniversary of the 1986 Astros securing their playoff spot. September 23, 24, and 25 of 1986 has to rank at or near the top of the most fun regular season three day stretches in franchise history.
On the 23rd Jim Deshaies threw a two hit shutout as the Astros shutout the Dodgers 4-0. That was the game in which Deshaies set a Major League record by striking out the first eight opposition batters (the Marlins' Pablo Lopez broke the record this year by striking out the first nine Braves he faced July 11). Dodger manager Tommy Lasorda was so flustered he pinch hit for his pitcher in the third inning with two out and nobody on in a 2-0 game. Pinch-hitter Larry See popped to second.
The next night Nolan Ryan fired eight innings of one hit ball (reliever Charlie Kerfeld gave up a hit in the ninth) as the Astros blanked the Giants 6-0.
The following afternoon Mike Scott threw his National League West Division clinching no-hitter in the Astros 2-0 win over the Giants.
Those Astros would lose an epic National League Championship Series to the New York Mets. ESPN's latest 30 for 30 debuted this week, a four-parter about the '86 Mets called "Once Upon A Time In Queens." It's phenomenal, with a good chunk of part three about the Mets-Astros LCS. Worth a watch, whether as an Astro fan of that time wanting to work up some fresh bile for the Mets of that time, or as a period piece.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Salute to Sal. Royals' catcher Salvador Perez hit his 45th home run of the season Thursday, tying Johnny Bench's single season homer record for a player who is primarily a catcher. Bench did it as part of a vaunted Cincinnati lineup that became known as the Big Red Machine. Perez's Kansas City team is 12th among 15 American League teams in runs scored, dead last in the AL in homers.
2. So John Wall and the Rockets evidently agree that his playing for them this season is of no interest. Finding a trade sucker (errrr, partner) to take the two seasons nearly 92 million guaranteed dollars left on Wall's deal without the Rockets having to trade away draft picks and/or take back other absurd contracts? Good luck.
3. Greatest Browns: Bronze-Bad, Bad Leroy Silver-Otto Graham Gold-Jim
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!