The Pallilog
Astros in great position after Game 4 win, but it is not over yet
Oct 18, 2019, 8:11 am
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A slightly shorter entry this week as I type late late night in the Bronx. The desolate, despondent Bronx. The Astros aren't locks quite yet to be playing the Washington Nationals in the World Series starting Tuesday night, but there are a lot of fat ladies in New York warming up their vocal cords.
The Yankees won their first World Series in 1923. In every decade since until this one they have appeared in at least one Fall Classic. It certainly isn't their motivation but the Astros would be plenty happy to snap the Yanks' nine decade Series streak.
Going into Thursday night's American League Championship Series game four, George Springer was batting .121 this postseason, Carlos Correa .161. A three run homer later from each of them and it wasn't quite over, but a 6-1 lead that wound up an 8-3 win has the Astros one win from Taking Back the AL pennant. With the Yankees staring down the barrel at Justin Verlander in game five.
Thought I heard the gnashing of teeth all the way from Houston as Zack Greinke gave up a hit and walked three to put the Yankees up 1-0 in the bottom of the first. With two out and the bases loaded after back-to-back walks, Gary Sanchez could have opened things up for the Yanks, however, he'd been a bum this series and lived down to billing by pitifully flailing at an 0-2 Greinke pitch to end the inning. Greinke then cruised until the fifth. His start against the Rays was awful but he did his part in both starts against the Yankees. Those who fret a lot about Greinke are viewing him through the prism of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander dominance.
It's not a miracle for the Yankees to beat Verlander and push the series back to Houston. If Minute Maid Park has a game Saturday it's a bullpen game for both teams unless A.J. Hinch crazily opts to go with Gerrit Cole in game six on three days rest. Winning it in five or six tees up Cole to start game one vs. the Nationals.
The Nationals have the starting pitching to go head up with the Astros. In fact, if you judge chain strength by the weakest link it's advantage Washington. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg can shut down any lineup, lefty Patrick Corbin is a solid third starter, Anibal Sanchez a capable number four. The Nats' bullpen was laughably lousy most of the season, been better in the playoffs, but still looks ripe for Astros' picking. The Washington offense is good not great, though Lamar high school grad and Rice-ex Anthony Rendon is great. He basically is an older Alex Bregman. A free agent to be, Rendon could get a contract in range of Cole's.
Gerrit Cole is presently a pitching God in our midst. But while the emotions we pour into sports reflect how much we love them, successful businesses rarely run on emotion. Logic, levelheadedness, and eyes on both the short run and longer term are essential. It's easy for those not directly coming up with the dough to go all Teddy KGB in Rounders saying "Pay the man." If Cole ultimately wants to sign somewhere home in California that's that. If not, the price of poker for the Astros could be six years 225+ mil. At this point seven/275 might be out there.
Big game for Texans
The Texans are rightfully on the back burner right now, but a win Sunday and that burner will be Battle Red hot. Last week's win at Kansas City was one of the best road wins in franchise history. Granted the Texans' cup doesn't runneth over with nominees, but that was a quality win, period. Following up with a victory lane performance in Indianapolis would have the Texans at 5-2 and in great position to chase the first first round playoff bye in club history.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Interesting and brassy of A.J. Hinch to go to Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning of game four. Trying to build confidence in him in a non-late inning situation paid off in spades with two huge Pressly Ks when the score was 3-1 2. I am a proud native New Yorker. But the casual loud profanity allowed at Yankee Stadium is ridiculous. Houston is the petroleum capital of the U.S. yet New York has more crude output. 3. Things at which Houston can't beat New York: Bronze-hockey Silver-pizza Gold-subway system
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.