The Pallilog
Astros in great position after Game 4 win, but it is not over yet
Oct 18, 2019, 8:11 am
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A slightly shorter entry this week as I type late late night in the Bronx. The desolate, despondent Bronx. The Astros aren't locks quite yet to be playing the Washington Nationals in the World Series starting Tuesday night, but there are a lot of fat ladies in New York warming up their vocal cords.
The Yankees won their first World Series in 1923. In every decade since until this one they have appeared in at least one Fall Classic. It certainly isn't their motivation but the Astros would be plenty happy to snap the Yanks' nine decade Series streak.
Going into Thursday night's American League Championship Series game four, George Springer was batting .121 this postseason, Carlos Correa .161. A three run homer later from each of them and it wasn't quite over, but a 6-1 lead that wound up an 8-3 win has the Astros one win from Taking Back the AL pennant. With the Yankees staring down the barrel at Justin Verlander in game five.
Thought I heard the gnashing of teeth all the way from Houston as Zack Greinke gave up a hit and walked three to put the Yankees up 1-0 in the bottom of the first. With two out and the bases loaded after back-to-back walks, Gary Sanchez could have opened things up for the Yanks, however, he'd been a bum this series and lived down to billing by pitifully flailing at an 0-2 Greinke pitch to end the inning. Greinke then cruised until the fifth. His start against the Rays was awful but he did his part in both starts against the Yankees. Those who fret a lot about Greinke are viewing him through the prism of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander dominance.
It's not a miracle for the Yankees to beat Verlander and push the series back to Houston. If Minute Maid Park has a game Saturday it's a bullpen game for both teams unless A.J. Hinch crazily opts to go with Gerrit Cole in game six on three days rest. Winning it in five or six tees up Cole to start game one vs. the Nationals.
The Nationals have the starting pitching to go head up with the Astros. In fact, if you judge chain strength by the weakest link it's advantage Washington. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg can shut down any lineup, lefty Patrick Corbin is a solid third starter, Anibal Sanchez a capable number four. The Nats' bullpen was laughably lousy most of the season, been better in the playoffs, but still looks ripe for Astros' picking. The Washington offense is good not great, though Lamar high school grad and Rice-ex Anthony Rendon is great. He basically is an older Alex Bregman. A free agent to be, Rendon could get a contract in range of Cole's.
Gerrit Cole is presently a pitching God in our midst. But while the emotions we pour into sports reflect how much we love them, successful businesses rarely run on emotion. Logic, levelheadedness, and eyes on both the short run and longer term are essential. It's easy for those not directly coming up with the dough to go all Teddy KGB in Rounders saying "Pay the man." If Cole ultimately wants to sign somewhere home in California that's that. If not, the price of poker for the Astros could be six years 225+ mil. At this point seven/275 might be out there.
Big game for Texans
The Texans are rightfully on the back burner right now, but a win Sunday and that burner will be Battle Red hot. Last week's win at Kansas City was one of the best road wins in franchise history. Granted the Texans' cup doesn't runneth over with nominees, but that was a quality win, period. Following up with a victory lane performance in Indianapolis would have the Texans at 5-2 and in great position to chase the first first round playoff bye in club history.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Interesting and brassy of A.J. Hinch to go to Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning of game four. Trying to build confidence in him in a non-late inning situation paid off in spades with two huge Pressly Ks when the score was 3-1 2. I am a proud native New Yorker. But the casual loud profanity allowed at Yankee Stadium is ridiculous. Houston is the petroleum capital of the U.S. yet New York has more crude output. 3. Things at which Houston can't beat New York: Bronze-hockey Silver-pizza Gold-subway system
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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