CHARLIE PALLILO
Astros-Indians series will be no walk in the park for the champs
Sep 28, 2018, 6:58 am
A week from the start of the Astros-Indians American League Division Series let’s cover some pertinent points. The reigning World Series Champions have a serious challenge on their hands. Anyone thinking the Astros are vastly better than the Tribe is nuts. The Astros are the rightful favorites, but not by much.
If we had a draft today of the starting pitchers available for the series, Indians would be four of the top six choices. The game one matchup of Justin Verlander vs. Cory Kluber is fantastic. Gerrit Cole is a rock solid game two choice for A.J. Hinch, Terry Francona answers with Trevor Bauer or Carlos Carrasco. Both have nasty stuff. While whichever guy doesn’t start game two for the Indians is an easy pick for game three, Hinch will be hoping for the best. What is Charlie Morton’s health? Dallas Keuchel has not been good down the stretch. Josh James has looked good, but would you roll the dice on the road with a guy who has made all of three big league starts going into this weekend?
The Astros rate a clear edge in the bullpen. It’s the biggest gap between the two teams. Even though the Astros have been mediocre at best in close games (losing record in one-run games, losing record in games tied after six innings, tied after seven innings, tied after eight innings, and in extra innings!) they do have the best bullpen earned run average in MLB this season. The Indians rank in the bottom 10. Even if not scoring a lot of runs against the Indians’ starters, it will be extremely helpful for the Astros if they at least have good at bats and drive up pitch counts to where the Indians are going to that pen by the sixth inning.
The Indians have scored more runs than the Astros have this season. A notable part of that is the Indians getting to face four lousy AL Central teams for nearly half their schedule. Also a notable part is that Cleveland has some studs. Jose Ramirez has been as good as Alex Bregman this season. Forget Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor has been as good or better than Jose Altuve. Michael Brantley better than George Springer. Ramirez, Lindor, and Edwin Encarnacion all have hit more home runs this season than any Astro.
In the end, for all study of the tale of the tape (and all my trenchant analysis), it’s a best of five series. Short stretches of games draw guesses not meaningful predictions. A lousy baseball team can beat an excellent team three out of five. The far from lousy Indians winning would be a very mild upset.
I’d be surprised if the move is made, but the Astro brain trust isn’t doing its job if it doesn’t consider sitting Carlos Correa against the Indians. He has been sub-awful at the plate for a month and a half and shown basically no signs of coming out of it. In limited sample size, Correa is a career .170 hitter against the Indians’ four possible ALDS starters. Against Kluber and Bauer he has 16 strikeouts in 31 at bats, and none of those ABs came during this extended horror stretch. Expecting Correa to deliver against them now would be silly. Playing Correa and hoping for him to deliver is defensible, in part because Correa’s defense has value.
Correa is no egomaniac, but he has an abundance of pride which would no doubt be hurt by any benching. A reminder that the Astros’ slogan this season is “Never Settle.” They are striving for greatness and back-to-back World Series titles. Decisions in the best interest of the 2018 Astros are what should carry the day right now.
Hope you clicked my quickie SportsMap video about Jameson Taillon earlier this week. The SportsMap big cheeses love clicks.
I won’t fake any enthusiasm for Sunday’s Texans-Colts matchup. I’ll certainly watch, though not live for three hours. The internet is the invention that trumps all others when thinking of those impacting our lives in the last 20, 25 years, but how fantastic is the DVR? Most youngsters probably have no idea that with a VCR we couldn’t start watching a recording until the event was complete and the recording halted. Texans-Colts is meant to be watched starting 1, 1:15 our time. Skimming through the commercials and halftime you get caught up somewhere in the fourth quarter to watch what remains live. Unless the Texans are just remains at that point.
1. Watching the first half of Rams-Vikings Thursday it was as if Bill O’Brien was the offensive coordinator for both teams. 2. For those with low-caliber sarcasm detectors, #1 was sarcasm. 3. American League MVP: Bronze-Alex Bregman (Jose Ramirez if SportsMap was Cleveland-based) Silver-Mike Trout Gold-Mookie Betts
The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.
But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.
Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.
As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.
Can the bats keep pace?
If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.
As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.
The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.
Cristian Javier threw a 20-pitch live BP today in West Palm Beach. According to Joe Espada, he was up to 95 mph.
Luis Garcia should throw a live BP next week.
Spencer Arrighetti is still not throwing off a mound yet.
Yordan Alvarez has not resumed hitting.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 20, 2025
Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.
Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.
The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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