How Houston Astros league-best rotation could actually get better
IT STARTS HERE
28 June 2023
IT STARTS HERE
One of the most important pieces of the Houston Astros rotation over the last two years has been none other than Cristian Javier. His combined no-hitter in the World Series turned things around for the Astros and helped them secure a championship.
Javier received a deserving contract extension in the offseason, and he's been good, not great, for Houston this year.
While his declining numbers don't jump out at you at first glance, a deep dive in the stats are very telling. Javier's velocity is down this year, and his release point is different as well. By releasing the ball higher this season, his spin rate has declined and the effectiveness of his “Invisi-Ball” fastball is down.
Plus, his walks are way up, with 5 in his last outing. And his strikeouts are way down, recording only 5 in his last 3 outings combined.
Javier and the Astros have a big opportunity to gain some ground on the Rangers when they face each other this weekend. Hopefully we see a classic Javier performance.
Be sure to watch the video above as we discuss how important Javier is to the Astros' title chances in 2023, and shed some light on what might really be going on behind the scenes.
Plus, how unstoppable Houston's rotation will be when Javier gets his mechanics cleaned up.
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The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.
As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.
Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.
Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.
But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.
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Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.
So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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