JV RETURNS
How Justin Verlander's return to Minute Maid raises these important Astros questions
Jun 20, 2023, 1:17 pm
How will Houston fans react to Justin Verlander? Composite Getty Image.
Astros fans: when Justin Verlander takes the mound tonight against your Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park, will you cheer or boo him?
There’s a pretty compelling argument for both sides.
Cheer him: Although he was a fleeting comet across the Houston sky, only 5-plus years here, including two seasons on the injured list, Verlander is, prorated, the greatest pitcher in Astros history. He rode into town like a knight in shining armor in 2017, going 5-0 down the stretch and helping the Astros win their first World Series. He followed that going 16-9 in 2018, then a Cy Young Award in 2019. Then another Cy Young in 2022, the lowest earned run average of his career (1.75) and another World Series title for the Astros.
Along the way, he married Kate Upton, they had a daughter, and together they became the most celebrated couple, a beloved icon, in Houston. The only thing missing from Verlander’s career in Houston was an H-E-B commercial. He was too busy pushing Ford trucks.
So go ahead, give Verlander an ovation for what he did when he was here. He was spectacular. He brought glory to Houston. He literally loved Jose Altuve and the rest of the team.
And then, at the end of the 2022, he became a free agent …
Boo him: First and most important, he is pitching for the other team. The Astros desperately need a win to stop their 5-game losing streak and get back into the playoff picture.
The bigger question, how do you like him now?
After the 2022 triumphant season, Verlander sought greener pastures, like $86.666 million worth of green from the New York Mets over two years. And possibly $35 million more for a third season if he gets there.
That’s how Verlander paid the Astros back for paying him $147 million for the five full seasons he was here, two of which he barely pitched at all, only six innings in 2020 and none in 2021. That’s more money than many Astros fans will make in 75 lifetimes.
At 39 years old, coming off two missing seasons because of Tommy John surgery, the Astros still risked $25 million on Verlander for 2022.
The Astros certainly were loyal to Verlander. Him, not so much. The Astros would have loved to keep Verlander for 2023 and beyond, but as soon as he had the chance, Verlander stuck it to the Astros where the sun don’t shine – under the roof at Minute Maid Park. Where tonight he’ll face the Astros’ heir to the ace throne, Framber Valdez. It’ll be a packed house, the game of the year so far.
Of course, nobody should begrudge anybody for leaving a job for more money. But how much is enough? By the end of 2022, Verlander had made $299 million over his certain Hall of Fame career. If he completes his three years in New York, he will be the highest-paid player in baseball history at $420 million. The current leaders in the clubhouse are Miguel Cabrera at $400 million, followed by Alex Rodriguez ($399 million), Albert Pujols ($346 million) and Zack Greinke ($338 million).
Those numbers could be blown to smithereens in a few months when Shohei Ohtani becomes a free agent at age 29. Team owners, start your bidding at $500 million, with the Los Angeles Dodgers expected to offer whatever it takes.
Back to Verlander. By leaving the Astros, Verlander became a cold-blooded hired gun. Sure, we’d all love to be given that opportunity. But as Howie Mandel used to ask on Deal or No Deal … did the Mets make a good deal signing Verlander? He is 40 years old and his roots are showing. Even last year, he limped home at the end of the season, with the Astros hoping to squeeze five innings out him during the playoffs. Verlander started this season on the injured list and with June rolling to a close, he’s 2-3 with an ERA of 4.40.
Giving Verlander, or any 40-year-old baseball player, a huge long-term deal is like buying bread from the day-old rack at the supermarket. Occasionally you’ll get a fresh slice from the middle, but it’s not like yesterday. Verlander isn’t the Verlander of old. He’s just old Verlander.
So go ahead and cheer him, but let’s holler for the Astros more. The Astros can’t afford another loss, but Verlander sure can.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!