INDIVIDUAL AWARDS ARE GREAT BUT THE MAIN GOAL SHOULD ALWAYS BE A WORLD SERIES TITLE

Astros: Keep your eyes on the prize

Astros win the World Series.
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The Astros are one of the best teams in baseball and have one of the most explosive and complete rosters in the game. With a team that is loaded with that much talent comes a great deal of hype, media exposure and consideration for postseason awards. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are the top two candidates for the American League Cy Young Award, Alex Bregman is currently ranked in the top three for A.L. MVP and Yordan Alvarez is taking baseball by storm as the emerging favorite for Rookie of the Year. All you have to do is log on to your favorite social media account when any one of those guys has an outstanding performance to read the compliments, praise, and proclamations of the award already being won by their favorite Astro of the hour. Those Tweets and messages are usually followed up with stats and historical references to back up their predictions and some even go as far as to slam the other candidates being mentioned in conversations surrounding the major awards for the American League. As good as these guys are playing and as proud as you feel to hear your hometown heroes names being bantered about in regard to individual success, it's important for the team and the fans to keep it all in perspective and remember the most important award is the World Series trophy and banner at the end of the season.

Rockets James HardenPhoto by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Houston is a city that seems overly focused on seeing their favorite hometown hero in any one of the three major sports in the city, get the recognition, credit and major awards they feel the players so richly deserves. James Harden is in the NBA MVP discussion seemingly every year and when he doesn't win it, there is a backlash, disappointment, and disgust across "Red Nation." The Rockets organization has a major marketing campaign and the media blitz that is focused on lobbying for the Beard to get the hardware annually and GM Daryl Morey is like a paid political advisor the way he campaigns for his guy and bashes the other guys in the running. That's not a good look and can backfire when you eventually trade for one of the guys you have downplayed in the past. (Westbrook) The critics and media that follow the team on a consistent basis have wondered out loud about the over the top passion in regard to Harden and the MVP and if it means more and gets more attention than the team's attempts to win another title? Even the players get caught up in the hype and are asked about it far more frequently than they would like, as the preference for them is always centered on winning the next game on the schedule and doing whatever it takes to achieve the ultimate in team success. The Texans aren't as bad when it comes to JJ Watt, but the fans have had a similar passion when he has been in the running for Defensive Player of the Year and NFL MVP. The Astros have seemingly stayed out of the campaigning for their players up for postseason awards and have let the cards fall where they may in terms of the media and the voting process. Jose Altuve still took home the top individual award for a position player two years ago, but they also won their first championship as a team and organization that same season. The point being, it's more than OK to push for your favorite Houston player to get individual accolades and awards, just don't let that passion supersede your desire to see your favorite team win the ultimate prize at the end of the playoffs.

The latest example of "award-mania" is centered around Yordan Alvarez and his meteoric rise heard and seen around MLB ever since he was called up by the Astros some 50 games ago. The combination of huge power surges, long, majestic home runs and a keen eye at the plate that has his average hovering around .350 has all of H-town buzzing. Astros fans all over the country are singing his praises and writing their local beat writer to demand that "Air Yordan" get consideration for Rookie of the Year as they compare his success to the greats of the game like Ted Williams and Albert Pujols. The numbers speak for themselves as he has been a huge shot in the arm to the Houston offense while proving he belongs in the big leagues, playing on a daily basis. The fans jumped on the bandwagon almost immediately after following his rising stock as he dominated pitchers throughout his every stop in the minor leagues. I love the passion and the support everyone is giving the big DH as he has become another in a long line of Astros players that the fans love and the organization and all of MLB appreciates. Just a word of caution not to lose your collective mind if he doesn't get the trophy at the end of the season and gets passed over for another player that has been in the show for the entire year. As great as it would be to see the kid take home the top award given to a first-year player, it's ten times more important to see how valuable he has become to his team and the effect he has had on Houston's success and their chances of winning their 2nd title in the last 3 years. Alvarez has given the Astros a huge boost in the middle of their batting order and his success allowed GM Jeff Luhnow the flexibility to pool all of his resources towards acquiring a front line starting pitcher like Zack Grienke and a few other arms to bolster the pitching staff. Yordan's emergence allowed Luhnow and his staff to stockpile all their resources and prospects and use them on arms instead of trying to spread them out to give the club a chance to swing a deal for an extra bat as well as a big-time arm or two. So keep cheering for your favorite players to take home every trophy and every postseason award, just don't let it consume you to the point that you lose sight of what should still be and always be the number one priority, which is another World Series title.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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