WHAT NOW?
How Astros spring training “speed bump” adds new twist to starting rotation
Feb 22, 2023, 2:41 pm
Lance McCullers won't be ready for Opening Day. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Lance McCullers Jr. will not be ready to go for the Houston Astros on Opening Day. The veteran starting pitcher said on Wednesday he underwent an MRI and it revealed a small muscle strain that will sideline him for several weeks.
After undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2018, which forced him to miss the entire 2019 season, and then missing most of Houston’s 2021 postseason run and a majority of the 2022 season with a strained flexor muscle, McCullers’ latest issue is considered to be minor, and should not hamper him from being in the rotation long-term, he said on Wednesday.
McCullers: “I’m not going to lie. It’s been a tough couple of days just having to come to the reality that I’m not going to be a part of the team to open the season and I’m going to have to undergo another rehab.” pic.twitter.com/aGsR6jZJ0D
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) February 22, 2023
Regardless of the severity of the injury, McCullers’ muscle strain will cause the Astros to have to shake things up with their starting rotation, at least to begin the season. Here is what it could look like.
Even before McCullers’ injury, Framber Valdez was likely going to be the Opening Day starter for the Astros. The questions begin behind him.
McCullers could have been Houston’s day two starter. The Astros still have plenty of options to choose from, but the edge could go to Cristian Javier, who recently signed his five-year extension earlier this month.
Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy, two players that have started games in the past for Houston, likely have locked down their positions as well. With McCullers’ injury, it likely also secures a spot for Hunter Brown in the starting rotation.
Prior to McCullers’ injuries, there were questions about whether Brown would be in the rotation, if Houston potentially went with a six-man starting rotation, or if the Astros moved Brown or another pitcher to the bullpen. That is no longer a question.
In what could be a silver lining, the injury likely means it will be a trial by fire for Brown, who started two regular season games for the Astros in 2022.
It also opens up an opportunity for other pitchers, including Forrest Whitley, who has yet to pitch a single inning in the majors, J.P. France, Shawn Dubin, and Brandon Bielak. All four players have a chance to be on Houston’s major league roster while McCullers is out.
All four players also started games in 2022 for the Astros’ Triple A affiliate, the Sugar Land Space Cowboys.
That is something worth noting because on Houston’s current roster, only Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero and Brandon Bielak are pitchers outside of Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia and Brown that have experience starting multiple games in a season at the MLB level.
For Stanek, they came in 2018 and 2019 for the Tampa Bay Rays, who were known for their bullpen games. Montero last started a game in 2017 for the New York Mets.
Losing a starting pitcher the caliber of McCullers to start the season is a significant loss, and in the pitcher’s own words, a frustrating one.
For now, the Astros have enough depth to absorb it for the start of the season. The biggest storyline to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is if it truly is just a minor injury for McCullers.
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The Houston Astros have some big decisions to make this offseason and deciding whether to re-sign Alex Bregman is only part of the equation.
Following the Astros being eliminated by the Tigers, GM Dana Brown said the club may have to get “creative” this offseason, and exploring the trade market could be a real possibility.
With so much salary already committed to Rafael Montero, Jose Abreu, and Lance McCullers for the 2025 season, it's hard to believe the club will be spending a bunch of money in free agency.
Which also means they may elect to let Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi come off the books permanently and sign elsewhere.
(For the purposes of this video, we're going to be talking about the pitching specifically. If you want to hear our thoughts on the outlook for the offense, be sure to watch our video from last week. You can find it here.)
If the Astros do consider making a trade this offseason, which pitchers would make the most sense to deal? Let's start with Framber Valdez. The club should be able to get a big haul for Framber, and he's projected to make around $18 million this season.
Framber is also a free agent after 2025, so his time in Houston may be coming to an end in the near future anyway.
Typically, we wouldn't consider the possibility of the Astros trading Framber one year before free agency. History tells us they let players walk after the final year of their contract. They didn't trade Bregman before the 2024 season, and we know what happened with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa.
But the Astros are in a different place now than they were a few years ago. The current version of the Astros aren't nearly as deep as those other teams.
The 'Stros don't regularly win 100 games like they used to. They're just another contending team over the past two seasons. But fortunately for them, they're in the AL West. So they should have a great shot to win the division once again.
But as currently constructed, they're not the dominate team they were a few years ago. Trading Valdez could bring some young talent into the organization and safe the club money that could be reallocated to other parts of the team (outfield, first base). They should be looking for a trade similar to what the Brewers received for Corbin Burnes.
If the Astros don't plan on offering Framber a long-term deal, then why not get something for him while they still can?
Astros owner Jim Crane would probably argue that he wouldn't want to trade away his best pitcher in what could be Kyle Tucker's final year with Houston. Which is a fair point, and why this probably won't happen, considering their history with players in the final year of their contracts. But based on everything laid out above, it might be time for a change in philosophy.
Another player they could look to move is Ryan Pressly. Would he be willing to waive his no-trade clause for the right situation? Pressly is 35 years old and in the last year of his contract. He's set to make $14 million this season, and one could argue that it's time for Bryan Abreu to take over the setup role. Pressly has done some amazing things for this organization, but $14 million for a seventh inning guy is hard to justify. And just to be clear, we're not letting Josh Hader off the hook. Pressly had a lower ERA than Hader in 2024. But good luck finding anyone that would trade for Hader's massive contract.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we evaluate the Astros pitching staff heading into 2025, and explore some trade possibilities that could improve the roster in the short and long-term!